psuhoffman

It's subtle but compare the trajectory of the upper level feature coming out of CO/WY on the NAM and the GFS. GFS NAM NAM is digging a bit and the GFS is lifting. The key to our success is the track of that feature...we need that to take a more amplified but further south track. Those are the solutions that lead to snow.

Something I've noticed looking at individual ensemble members and ops and what produces snow or at least a close call v runs that don't.... we actually want a more amplified wave BUT it has to be in conjunction with a more suppressive flow such that the wave is more amplified but is digging over the midwest not lifting. That is why I said I liked the NAM. Its a more amped wave but its digging. Yes the weaker primary waves won't wreck the thermals as much but the flow along the east coast is suppressive and the weaker solutions also fail to produce a secondary in time. The wave washes out and by the time it redevelops its way OTS. We need the perfect combo of a stronger wave with a further south track of the upper feature such that a secondary forms quickly and further south.

I kinda liked the NAM at 84. Nuff said bout dat.

Wave 3 isn’t so much impacted by this…but my fear with waves 1-2 are they split the energy. There is an in between spot where wave 1 is just amplified enough to squash wave 2 but still not enough to help us. I’m torn in what to root for. Doesn’t matter since the fact there isn’t a 12 foot snowpack on my lawn proves what I root for has no impact on the outcome.

Remember when some storm he had been hyping ended up just a weak wave and he said “it’s an inch but it could be the worst inch ever”.

Inside about 120 hours they tend to be very close which makes sense since the control is basically a lower resolution version. However, this has morphed into an inverted trough type setup and those are incredibly delicate and could produce more spread between the two. But I think there was value in posting the control. As much value as any single data point anyways.

Yes it can, there was even a significant early April snow that affected coastal NJ and DE a long time ago, but it takes a truly cold airmass and those are becoming rare even in mid winter lately.

There is about as strong a signal as can be at those leads for a storm around the 20th and given the pattern progression that one might be our best chance regardless of the date. Yes I know our climo is deteriorating daily.

Lol

Euro wave 2 it is…

I like the 0z geps. Matches my pattern progression thoughts. wave 1 wave 2 deeper souther wave 3 further south and maybe most impressive given the lead

Thought you were on team “it’s just cyclical and bad luck”.

Lead wave continues to trend less amplified. I’m really liking that second wave more and more.

I said waves after have a better chance. Didn’t say wave 1 has no chance.

18z euro slight changes at 90 but their good. Less amplified. More zonal. 50/50 slightly west.

18z gefs really seeing it now too! As wave one trends less amplified (at least in the Midwest) it’s leaving breathing room for a wave that was getting squashed out of existence before on guidance.

Montreal and Quebec City are on the river and get pretty warm by April. Snowpack is likely to be gone. Same with the valleys in Vermont. The spine of the Green Mountains in VT will very likely still have snow. Places like Killington and Stowe. But even there is can get very warm at the base once into April. If you want to be sure to see snow go to NW Maine. Places around Sugarloaf will always have snow otg into early April and hold snowpack to May some years.

Fair. But we’re getting close to the max length of all prior periods even close to this bad. So if this continues much longer that argument starts losing validity

“It’s the pac” is a matter of degrees. But for those that want to stick to that, explain why we are doing worse wrt snow lately than previous -pdo periods when the pac was every bit as hostile as it’s been lately.

No on some members the secondary forms south enough to clip us as precip breaks out along the dying inverted trough. Boston would be in a bad spot in that setup as the low stalls under the block precip will focus SE to NW along the old boundary then shift east as it pulls away. Boston would be too far NE if that scenario played out.

I think it’s just a bad op run. But see my discussion with Cape regarding what might be at play if that really is correct.

But troughs will always enter the west. Look at our loading pattern 3-5 days before a snow. Often there is a trough out west. Rarely go we snow from a wave diving SE from Canada. A handful of times I’ve been in UT or CO and skiid in snow then flew home in time to get snowed on again from the same wave. problem is waves have to progress east not amplify and track NE. In this longwave configuration it makes sense we have trouble. look at the wave spacing in the pac. It supports an eastern ridge. But look at day 10. as the impact of the mjo forces pac waves that have died west of the Aleutians to progress instead of kicking that wave out of the NW instead it’s logjammed the pac into a mess. The pac doesn’t support a trough amplifying in the west and pumping an eastern ridge. The pac is being convoluted into an ungodly mess because fir whatever reason the trough won’t kick out. It’s as if there was a boulder dumped into the River over the CONUS forcing the flow to buckle around it backing up everything behind it! Now you are right that about 75% of the time the last 7 years the pac longwave pattern has been bad. My point is that doesn’t 100% account for our futility. We’ve seen -pdo periods like this before and we did much better wrt snow. But the real kicker to me is that the 25% of the time the pac forcing does take on a more favorable configuration systems still are amplifying in the west and cutting. I really do think there is more than the pac feeding the eastern conus ridge and it’s resisting even when the pac is neutral to decent. It’s only when the pac is like 100% perfect that it seems to be able to bully the SER out of existence.

Op euro was a disaster. SER goes nuts again in the long range. So far it’s one fluke op run. Let’s hope ensembles don’t trend that was. 12z gefs and geps didn’t. 0z eps wasn’t. If a strong phase 8/1 mjo can’t eradicate the SER we’re in serious trouble!!!