psuhoffman

But what if it’s the best inch ever…

UK was close to huge…big hit northern parts of our region.

Dayum another wave day 10 but suppressed by the bomb still sitting over New England from wave 2 which ends up dropping 40” up there lol. And another wave lined up behind that one. Crazy crazy run.

Total from both

Storm 1 Storm 2 you will all be relieved to know it gets its act together in time to crush Boston!

So euro split the energy and managed to almost snow twice. But both were soooo close to a bigger result. A tip of the scales towards either could go it! Or if that second wave is more in sync it could have pulled it off. It was super close.

It’s the same wave it’s just coming across in two pieces unlike prior runs and most guidance that has it consolidated. If that wave were to have been consolidated thus run it might have been BIG

My high res is too. Pivotal has the low res out to 120 and 144. Euro might be in that magic spot where we can get some snow from both waves. At 144 wave 1 is exiting and looks like enough space for wave 2

It’s not a huge deal. Storm is starting to amplify but probably not in time to get us with the secondary. But we got a nice little thump snow DC north from the inverted trough passage.

H5 tracks to Chicago then SE through OH and right over DC. I’d love to get that another 100 miles south but this is much better. Again the key is keeping that h5 south initially.

Surface temps aren’t out yet. I’m sure they are a problem. But this is a huge improvement in every way!

Euro way better at h5 compared to 0z.

It’s all improved so far. Meant to say “bit more confluence” not “but”

Those changes even more pronounced at 84

Hr 78 euro slightly improved. H5 seems slightly south. But less ridging. Bit more confluence to our northeast.

Is that how that works?

Said the person who is here too!

I guess if we want to be optimists there could be an ever so slim zone where it’s possible to get a hit from both. I think that would require wave 2 to slow down which was a trend on the Gfs. We would need more separation between the waves to pull off a double because wave 1 will need to be pretty darn amped and tucked for us to get any snow.

Unfortunately my fail scenarios are usually the best bet. It’s amazing…when a threat window appears I think “now how could this all fall apart” and 90% of the time things trend exactly to that!

Most guidance right now is living in my fail zone where wave 1 is strong enough to interfere with wave 2 but not good enough to help us. The trend is the other way right now but I think rooting against wave 1 amplifying is the way to go. Wave 2 has a much better chance simply because there would be less ridging in front of it. Wave 1 simply simply needs so much to go perfect to overcome that I don’t know how likely it is. Never thought it was that likely. But I’ll admit it’s a lot closer then I thought it would be around the day 5 threshold.

Just pointing out the scenarios.

This is the h5 track we need…from that control run that snowed on us

ICON is in between track 1 and 2 with the upper feature and predictably is a very close miss.

ICON is the fail solution...more amplified wave 1 but isn't cold enough so we get CCB rain lol....and it squashes wave 2.

@stormtracker basically this illustrates what we need.... This is 24 hours after those plots we were comparing...and its game over on the GFS because of where the upper low is. From here its going to track southeast because of the block but its too far north...the suppression it would take to even get that under us from there would have to squash the wave anyways. That wont work. The runs that produce a chance at snow here have the upper feature located near 2 on that map...with a SE track from there. NAM appeared closer to that track than 1 with that feature. I really think that is the key to this.