psuhoffman

Euro wave 2 it is…

I like the 0z geps. Matches my pattern progression thoughts. wave 1 wave 2 deeper souther wave 3 further south and maybe most impressive given the lead

Thought you were on team “it’s just cyclical and bad luck”.

Lead wave continues to trend less amplified. I’m really liking that second wave more and more.

I said waves after have a better chance. Didn’t say wave 1 has no chance.

18z euro slight changes at 90 but their good. Less amplified. More zonal. 50/50 slightly west.

18z gefs really seeing it now too! As wave one trends less amplified (at least in the Midwest) it’s leaving breathing room for a wave that was getting squashed out of existence before on guidance.

Montreal and Quebec City are on the river and get pretty warm by April. Snowpack is likely to be gone. Same with the valleys in Vermont. The spine of the Green Mountains in VT will very likely still have snow. Places like Killington and Stowe. But even there is can get very warm at the base once into April. If you want to be sure to see snow go to NW Maine. Places around Sugarloaf will always have snow otg into early April and hold snowpack to May some years.

Fair. But we’re getting close to the max length of all prior periods even close to this bad. So if this continues much longer that argument starts losing validity

“It’s the pac” is a matter of degrees. But for those that want to stick to that, explain why we are doing worse wrt snow lately than previous -pdo periods when the pac was every bit as hostile as it’s been lately.

No on some members the secondary forms south enough to clip us as precip breaks out along the dying inverted trough. Boston would be in a bad spot in that setup as the low stalls under the block precip will focus SE to NW along the old boundary then shift east as it pulls away. Boston would be too far NE if that scenario played out.

I think it’s just a bad op run. But see my discussion with Cape regarding what might be at play if that really is correct.

But troughs will always enter the west. Look at our loading pattern 3-5 days before a snow. Often there is a trough out west. Rarely go we snow from a wave diving SE from Canada. A handful of times I’ve been in UT or CO and skiid in snow then flew home in time to get snowed on again from the same wave. problem is waves have to progress east not amplify and track NE. In this longwave configuration it makes sense we have trouble. look at the wave spacing in the pac. It supports an eastern ridge. But look at day 10. as the impact of the mjo forces pac waves that have died west of the Aleutians to progress instead of kicking that wave out of the NW instead it’s logjammed the pac into a mess. The pac doesn’t support a trough amplifying in the west and pumping an eastern ridge. The pac is being convoluted into an ungodly mess because fir whatever reason the trough won’t kick out. It’s as if there was a boulder dumped into the River over the CONUS forcing the flow to buckle around it backing up everything behind it! Now you are right that about 75% of the time the last 7 years the pac longwave pattern has been bad. My point is that doesn’t 100% account for our futility. We’ve seen -pdo periods like this before and we did much better wrt snow. But the real kicker to me is that the 25% of the time the pac forcing does take on a more favorable configuration systems still are amplifying in the west and cutting. I really do think there is more than the pac feeding the eastern conus ridge and it’s resisting even when the pac is neutral to decent. It’s only when the pac is like 100% perfect that it seems to be able to bully the SER out of existence.

Op euro was a disaster. SER goes nuts again in the long range. So far it’s one fluke op run. Let’s hope ensembles don’t trend that was. 12z gefs and geps didn’t. 0z eps wasn’t. If a strong phase 8/1 mjo can’t eradicate the SER we’re in serious trouble!!!

Agree. As the period comes into better focus it seems guidance indicates 2 waves in that period. The first seems to favor another miller b with a NS wave diving SE into the trough. The next favors a pac wave ejecting out of the southwest but this time into a flow unlikely to cut.

Quick illustration why that wave around the 17-18th is different. that western trough isn’t the same. It’s a system ejecting off the pac (y) but it can’t amplify out west. Look at the pacific Z, it’s actually trying to pump a ridge in the west. That trough is just temporary as a system cuts across. Between the flow behind X and ahead of Z, Y has to kick out and track east not north and there is cold in front of it. Yes I know it’s March 17 my turn just pointing out why that is the best synoptic setup for us to get a flush hit.

Strong signal on both GEFS and GEPS for another miller b type system from a NS wave diving in around the 15th. But this time the boundary is further south so we have a better chance. Then both have what might be the best threat around the 17-20 from a system being ejected from the pac further south with a cold airmass in place for once. That’s more indicative of a setup where a primary can stay south of us. After that signs the pattern continues but by then climo is becoming really hostile for most of this region so I might continue to track threats after in the PA forum.

What did it show 12 hours ago?

Other guidance is 48 hours slower with wave 2 so Gfs likely doesn’t even have the generals correct so not worried about a weird specific issue like that NS retrograding low.

Wave 2 is a good setup. What limits it this run is a weird thing I doubt is correct from this range. that upper low over Michigan instead of sliding east (good) or phasing in (great) retrogrades NW to north of Minn…see which opens the door to ridging along the east coast. That’s a very weird progression. It’s too much of a good thing, blocking retrograding the whole pattern too much lol. Wouldn’t worry about it.

For reference this is what we want the thermals to look like as a wave approaches. Lol

@stormtracker flow already starting to back at 168. I think wave 2 has a shot on this run.

It’s possible wave 2 gets suppressed and the one behind…but yea I know we’re running out of time. The flow will be pretty suppressive for a while behind this first wave. This pattern is very similar to 2018 but we’re progressing about 5 days behind. That’s a big deal this time of year.