psuhoffman

My reference to western highlands was anyone along or west of the blue ridge in VA or Catoctin in MD. My average is near 40” (or it was beside this year lol) the only places in this forum that are significantly above that are the narrow region along the eastern divide from Snowshoe up through Deep Creek. But they have a whole other climo from even the western highlands as they get most of their snow from upslope lake enhanced events. 75” here is rare when taken as part of the whole data set of all winters. But getting the extreme blocking of 2021 centered on the heart of snow climo is rare. We even had a decent blocking even in Dec then it reloaded and peaked in late Jan early Feb. we get very few winters with that combo of extreme HL blocking centered perfectly on the peak snow period. In years like that…my area getting 75” isn’t rare it’s actually common. It’s happened 8 times up here since 1958 and yes that’s a huge minority of all years but it makes up a pretty big % of years with that kind of blocking!

@Blizzard of 93 @WinterWxLuvr it’s legit to bring to the fact that 2021 was “close” to good. And yes that could mean luck played a part. A couple of those storms could have easily gone better. But I think it’s also fair to point out that they all didn’t for the same reason. We had like 5 perfect track storms where if you just looked at the MSLP you would think DC got crushed and it was just too warm. The miller b in early Feb is the one exception where had things gone better with the phase location the temps would have been ok. It’s also important to note it’s normal for DC to be “close but no cigar” on snowfall. They are geographically close to where the snow/no boundary sets up in a typical winter. Snowfall averages skyrocket not far north of DC. I am only a little over an hour drive away yet I average almost 3 times as much snow as DC. I average double Baltimore 35 miles away! 1993, 1994, 1998, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2018, 2021 are all examples of years where snowfall increased exponentially not far north of DC. I’m not overly comforted by “it was snowing close by” as that is pretty normal. But there is a case “that was normal”. I concede that. But when you take the whole larger period of time, and the trends hidden within the shorter variances going back much further, I think there is also evidence of a common thread. It’s impossible to say exactly when it’s bad luck, or random variance, or part of the downward trend in snowfall in the mid Atlantic urban centers. No one event can be conclusively attributable to one factor. But when we look at the larger sample the numbers show the trend.

Depends if you mean geographically or population. It was much below for about 60% of the geographic territory of this forum. But I would guess 90% of the pop since the Richmond DC and Balt metro areas were all much below and that’s by far the greatest pop of this forum. But it’s a fair point. I tend to tailor my posts to the DC/Balt metro areas. I lived there for a long time. Even though I moved up here I consider this a “fringe” micro climate not the norm for this forum. The handful of posters we have in the western highlands are closer to my climo also though. But my DC centric focus isn’t unrelated to my fortunes. My snowfall is hugely correlated to DC and Baltimore. For example, many have the take that I got 50” in 2021 so what do I care that DC had an awful season. But it did matter to me. If you look at past seasons with a similar pattern to 2021 my area can get 75”+ easy in those type seasons. Even up here several of those storms I was above freezing and got like 8” of slop from 1.2” qpf. Yea DC got almost all rain…but had it been 3-4 degrees colder DC would have had the 8” if slop and I would have had 15”. The warmer temps that winter did affect me also. It just meant I got 50” instead of 80” while DC got single digits in a season they should have had like 20”. It’s very rare that DC gets a big snow and my area misses out. So focusing on their snow isn’t unrelated to my own and it makes my posts more relevant to the majority of the people reading them.

Keep in mind that’s not a departure from normal as a %. Places like DC can’t have large numerical deficits because they only avg 14” a year compared to somewhere like Deep Creek that averages over 100”. So even if they are less below avg in terms of % they can have a larger numerical deficit over time.

Pac low centers too far east flooding N America with warmth

Maybe someday you’ll make a post worth reading. Unfortunately I don’t have the patience so I’ll never see it since you’ll be on my ignore list.

The boundary layer is warming fastest. Those of us with elevation are suffering less. The UHI obviously is suffering the most.

I’ll be doing my end of season analysis soon but the main take away is I am way too optimistic. I predicted below normal snow and we got none. I got excited exactly one time for the possibility of a snowstorm and we got no storms. So I was 100% too optimistic and hopeful. In short I was a huge weenie. In the coming years I will do my best to be more pessimistic so that I can offer you all the realistic accurate analysis you deserve.

I said for us. 2021 ended up much below normal snow in DC and Balt despite extreme blocking for about 6 weeks in prime climo. That is definitely not producing.

Work for who? It has actually been 5 anomalous -NAOs without producing much if any snow here since we had the last affective one in 2018. I wrote about it back after the December fail that one of the reasons for our snow drought over the last 7 years is that blocking is not working at the same rate it used to. It's still too small a sample though to say its more than just a random thing. But combined with some other unsettling trends its worrying.

The SS wave that was supposed to be our threat doesn’t even exist on the ggem anymore lol

2020???

Everything is almost identical to the 6z run that gave us a lot of snow. The one difference is the SS wave had simply trended less amplified

I didn’t get 4 flakes

They were progressive waves in a fast pac flow. We just had cold and got lucky.

If that Nino can alter the N pac flow such to get true cold into the pattern it would work. If not…I doubt the results will be any better.

If by chill you mean the pac jet stop being amplified with waves racing into N America I don’t think we will see much of that ever because it’s an effect of the expanded Hadley cell compressing the flow and increasing the jet. That seems to be a new permanent base state due to…something.

@Heisy the next pac wave hasn't really trended that much faster...it did trend significantly more amplified at 6z v previous runs...and it's slightly faster...but the bigger problem is the SS wave is a little slower which narrows the window between the two NS waves. But here is the bigger issue with that...and one we have run into in the few split flow blocking regimes we have had lately (this killed us several times in January 2021 for example) is the awful thermals of the mid latitude airmass stuck under the blocking...means we need such a suppressive northerly flow that it ends up suppressing the storm also. The reason the SS wave is slowing down is the increased confluence in the flow behind the first NS wave. We have been celebrating that trend because we know cold is going to be iffy at best and so we wanted that...but there has been a correlated slowing of the SS wave as that trend happens that has resulted in a suppressed solution. Basically...our path is so narrow because with such a marginal airmass we need so much northerly flow to get enough cold down here...that it becomes too suppressive for a SS storm to amplify at our latitude. Yes part of that problem right now is the time of year. But we have also had that problem in mid winter. January 2021 we had a couple waves where we had a great split flow longwave pattern but the airmass was putrid and we had this same equation...we were rooting for more confluence and we got it...but both waves ended up suppressed and torn to shreds by the flow even though we were barely cold enough to get snow even had the storm not been suppressed. For us to have a good chance for any given storm to work...the airmass has to be cold enough to survive some southerly flow ahead of the wave. If we need the flow to be out of the north to be cold enough...that usually isn't going to work because in a split flow that is going to suppress a SS wave 90% of the time.

The euro has been too amplified with most everything. It’s hard to quantify the March effect since we don’t necessarily know what the same wave looks like earlier. It’s already baked unto the models. The Gfs is under done. The euro over. That’s the most typical error at this range.

Things have to trend good now. If it falls apart this far out it won’t hurt enough. It has to get better and better until we actually believe, truly allow ourselves to think this is the one, it’s really finally happening, then and only then can it be the total soul crushing knock us to our knees and make us sob uncontrollably like March 2001 and December 2010 were a fun day at the park experience that is the only fitting way this can end.

Huge improvement

Euro is just over amplified. Typical bias at this range

Gefs better

It's not that simple... because we are also dealing with the timing of other features...its the play between the NS wave before and after the SS wave that matters also. There is a window between the two where space is open for a SS wave. If you slow down or speed up either of those NS waves it changes the window. This run the SS wave was towards the very end of that window...but the bigger problem was it was too slow and not amplified enough...got caught under the flow and cut off down there.