psuhoffman

It hasn't snowed at all in 2 years maybe lol

Naw, minor improvements from 12z but this isn't gonna get it done. It's significantly flatter than everything else.

I see minor improvements so far, TPV is oriented in a less suppressive way, energy is a bit more consolidated at the back of the trough...but the second wave is also a bit stronger which isn't good if we are looking for a GFS trailing wave solution. I don't know how much difference those first two factors will have either, its relatively minor changes and 12z was a disaster so...

In fairness maybe they were just ahead of the curve, that 05 winter would be EPIC now

they talking about before 1996 or 2003?

OK I'm back... After digesting all the 0z guidance and ensembles... if the euro can get on board tonight we might finally have consensus. The GGEM op is a major outlier even among its own ensembles. UKMET is the most amplified solution which is no shock if you follow the UKMET at all. But other than the GGEM op everything else is within a more narrow envelope of solutions now tonight. If the euro comes in with something within the same envelope in 20 mins my confidence that we have a good chance to end the streak will go up significantly.

Excuse me, I'm gonna need ya'll to give me some privacy with the UKMET for a bit...

you Ninja'd me. But I agree the way the op went down was risky, it was stuck between keying on two waves and almost ran off with the first one. It had to redevelop and jump west to pull off what it did, that's dangerous and even if everything showed that 12 hours out I would be nervous. That is bust city right there. But the GEFS suggests maybe the trailing wave can be dominant with a less messy development.

I like the 0z GEFS more, and I liked the 18z GEFS a lot! It has more members keying on that second wave...but actually has a cleaner phase and gets the coastal going sooner without that weird jump thing where the initial wave almost takes the boundary off and the low has to redevelop west. That was a really messy progression on the op. But the GEFS indicates a move towards the slower progression with the 3rd wave being dominant but a cleaner coastal development. If we actually can get the 3rd wave to work it has the highest upside. Way less risk of a cutter or thermal issues, more room to amplify, stronger NS wave... It moved towards a better scenario imo. I don't know what to make of the GGEM though, hopefully its just off on a tangent. Not that unusual for the ggem.

It was initially. It’s a totally different wave than the one that hit us on 18z run. It squashed that then develops the one behind it.

@Terpeast@stormtracker it actually moved towards Heisys trailing wave idea. And sorta pulled it off in a messy way. This was a big change I’ll reserve my judgement until the rest of 0z. But my fear is we get stuck between solutions and all 3 waves rotating around just run interference with each other. We need one to be dominant. The lead can’t imo. But we’ve seen runs that work now with either the 2nd or 3rd.

No I meant exactly what I said. He does an over the top plot line EVERY threat. And he had been in decline since 2003

JB just pulled out Jan 96 as an analog to Tuesday. lol there are no words. He just has to jump the shark every time. Every damn time.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1745572422076465273?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw

I hope you’re right and I’m wrong.

All 5 examples sucked in DC. Last one was 3”. The only thing interesting would be the weenie meltdowns in here. We haven’t had a snowy La Niña in 24 years! And the only 2 in the last 50 years were +pdo -QBO winters!

Why did you skip 12z in there? Come on stop it

Just because I hate myself that much about a month ago I looked at where we were likely heading with QBO, enso, PDO, AMO and solar. And I used the same matrix I always use to identify the 5 best analogs. There is a reason I didn’t share. I figured I’d keep my nightmares to myself. But since you asked. here ya go Analog h5 analog temps DC Avg snow 3” sweet dreams

I remember they sent us to school in NJ expecting rain. I have a vivid memory of boarding a bus in a very chaotic early release while it was pouring snow and getting deep. I know from reading analysis of that storm they expected the mid level warmth to push further NW given the lack of a high but the low tracked a little further east and was so intense that dynamic cooling offset the warming until the dryslot.

Here is my early preview of my winter 2024-25 forecast.

I already cancelled next winter. -PDO +QBO past solar max Nina. You don’t want the analogs to that. Just focus on the next 2 months!

18z euro There are too many moving parts for me to project much. But the SW that becomes the kicker on the 12z is weaker. The wave we’re watching is hanging back a bit more and the tpv is slightly less suppressive. So all good trends. But how much difference it would have made I don’t know. Remember the 12z op was pretty awful. It had almost no wave at all so we needed more than subtle improvements. It ended too soon to say.

Before anyone gets too upset you don’t have to worry about that happening again. If that happens again we won’t melt 18” in a few hours…because we wouldn’t get it in the first place. That was one of the storms @Terpeast analysis showed would be a perfect track rainstorm now.

Some would complain. I remember after that Feb storm I traveled from near Philly to Harpers Ferry for my cousin’s baptism. We left the day after the storm early morning. By the time we got to WV there was nothing but patches in shade left. I remember I said to my uncle “we had a foot of snow I’m surprised you didn’t get as much” and he said “we had 18” but it all melted today it was so warm”.

Depends if we’re talking about what it actually shows or superimposing some further warming trend only to. As is it’s pretty much all snow in DC. I checked the soundings. The warmest layer is 850 and it never gets above at any level in DC. This win as is was showing a 6-8” thump snow in DC maybe with some light sleet in the dry slot. Even southeast of 95 west of the bay there is only a very small warm layer at 850 and it comes in towards the end of the WAA thump. In actuality even east of 95 I think would get a 4-6” thump then just dry slot as they mix with sleet and snizzle. Once east of the bay it does become very problematic on this run. But I get it. I’d prefer the 12z solution. Even up here I’d feel safer with that at this lead.