psuhoffman

personally I am fine with what the AIFS Ens show...because I am done with the part of winter where I am worried about getting minor snowfalls...it's time to go big or go home...I am exclusively big game hunting once we get into mid February on. So I would much prefer a 6" mean from a handful of 20" storms in the ensemble...than a 6" mean from a bunch of 6" storms. Give me some HECS lottery tickets and I'll take my chances.

They have had an issue with "follow the leader" but in this case their high snow mean is because about 1/3 of the members didn't follow the op and instead show a blizzard over PD weekend.

digging into the AIFS ens its mixed... so the mean went back way up...but the median is only about 2". The reason why is the mean is skewed by the fact that about 30% of the members are huge HUGE hits...like 1-2 foot snowstorms even using 10-1...legit PD3 storms. Classic east coast storm distribution look to them. But that's only 1/3. The rest have a much weaker system with either less snow like the AIFS op that showed 2-3"...and then there are about 40% that have no snow at all and a warmer solution. So the AIFS ens are saying we have a decent chance (like 30%) of a BIG snowstorm...but the most likely outcome is a smaller 1-3" type event.

I should start doing my "ensemble blend" method again...but I just haven't had time lately. But a few years ago when I did that...it worked pretty good and was fairly predictive of our chances...the one actual snow we got during the 2 months I did it was the one that showed above 50% odds from a week out. But it only worked from 5+ days out using 24 hours of ensemble runs...(which is 2 runs of the EPS and GEPS and 4 runs of the GEFS and it was weighted to give the EPS 2x more weight than the GFS and GEPS. If I did it again I would definitely add in the AIFS EPS and weight it similar to the EPS.

when does this begin?

So I am going to assume the snowfall aspect looked so good there was no need to talk about it anymore which is why all I see is wind chill discussions

yea I'm gonna drive up Sunday to ski Monday with the kids...looks to warm up pretty good by then but this weekend...too cold I think.

models are usually pretty volatile during pattern changes and we are kinda looking at ranges that are beyond where consistency is typical.

Damn I just saw the new rules for the main thread...if I post my venmo can I get about 10k so I can continue to contribute?

You must not come in our sub very often! lol

I'm so sorry this happened to her... just hope she doesn't get too discouraged and keeps at it. I am very sad for the market waiting many of our current students as they take their first steps. There are so many factors creating negative stress on the labor market right now...some self inflicted and some related to changes and innovation that we are going to have to face and deal with eventually. But its rough...but if she keeps at it eventually something will go her way.

The AO/NAO is trending negative again, which fits the seasonal norm. We are getting into the part of the winter season where the AO/NAO have even more influence and can overcome the PAC. Given the thermal profile established across N America if we hold a favorable atlantic configuration I doubt we enter a sustained shit the blinds no hope period...yes we will get temporary warm ups but we will also get cold air intrusions behind fronts and with timing will have opportunities the rest of the way.

Dude you can’t start a fight and then cry you’re being persecuted. That post was super passive aggressive and you knew exactly what you were doing. You even said so “I know I’m gonna get weenied for this” ok so be a man and take the heat since you asked for it but don’t kick sand in everyone’s face then whine that they aren’t being nice to you

I can’t know what others think but I know our climo. I know most threats fail. I know it’s unlikely we get a big snowstorm next weekend. There’s a chance. That’s it. In tracking because maybe this is the time we win. It’s the same as sports. You know most seasons your team isn’t going to win the championship. But you follow. Because there is the chance maybe this time they will. You know it’s not likely. Some years maybe you go in thinking you have a better chance. But even the team with the absolute best odds only has maybe a 10% chance going into the season. Thats this. Sometimes we have a slightly better chance to win. But we know it’s not good any given threat for a week out. Just my 2 cents. Maybe it was you who misunderstood the odds and now you are venting in frustration.

I think maybe you need to listen to some calming music and plan a snow chase somewhere or something. Or maybe find a more fulfilling hobby. This is not said in jest. Life’s too short to be this frustrated about anything.