psuhoffman

The last few days have been crazy busy for me and I have not had time to scroll through 75 pages to get caught up so I apologize if any of this is redundant but some thoughts on where we are right now after looking at everything 1) I was never concerned with suppression, and frankly I never thought anything actually showed that...the runs that were south were because the energy got stuck out west and only weak waves ejected which of course would slide east under the cold dome. That's not suppression. There was never anything showing some wall of immovable confluence with the typical sharp northern cutoff of precip you see in true suppression. The greenland block is centered north of ideal actually, up over northern Greenland...not Baffin, and the 50/50 is ideal...and relaxing as the wave approaches not some vortex over Maine like we see when a storm gets suppressed. This never looked like that was the issue. 2) However, I am also not overly concerned this turns into some non event from a north trend. While the greenland block is north of ideal, there is one of the most impressive ridge bridges to a poleward EPO ridge that I have ever seen and a strong 50/50 feature. There is an arctic high in the way. And the low and mid level cold starts out really far south. This system has a lot of similarities to the February 2007 storm but the mid level cold is penetrating about 100 miles further south in this storm. That system I was always worried leading in because the cold really wasn't set up far enough to our south as the WAA started. This time...there is a limit IMO to how far north this can go because the low and mid level cold is really pressing ahead of it. I do think we might mix, but the worst case scenario would be a result for DC and Baltimore similar to 2007 but displaced about 75-100 miles south...meaning DC could experience what Harrisburg PA got during that 2007 storm, which was about 4-6" of snow followed by 4-5" of sleet and freezing rain and in the end had 10" of a concrete glacier OTG and a major impact event. I know everyone would prefer 2 feet of cold smoke powder, and a ton of snow is still possible, I'm just saying I don't think this can turn into some predominantly rain event...this is either a huge snowstorm, or at worst a decent snow turning into a prolific sleet/ice event. Right now I would lean somewhere in between, with the most likely outcome being a big snow before mixing with sleet in the cities.

Who’s got the cigarettes?

Tonight is the first time we’ve been in range where I felt it was worth paying much attention other than to say the pattern looks great which I’ve said multiple times. WRT analysis I’ll add when I think it’s necessary but y’all have been all over it. The next generation is stepping up. And good for ya. I’m tired.

Damn UK at 120 looks like

For reference

@Ji you probably didn’t notice because it was during the dry slot and not much was happening. We didn’t lose much precip to sleet. Maybe it cost us 1”. But it was off and on light sleet for a while. We did lose 6” or so to the dry slot which is why we had about 24” and not the 30”+ further west and north did. And the sleet was a function of the same thing that caused the dry slot so related. I’m certainly not complaining about the 24” we got. It was an awesome storm but remember they had us in the 30”+ zone for a bit but the warm mid levels pushed further NW than expected.

No 1996. Sunday afternoon. During the dry slot. Light sleet for 2-3 hours. While the cowboys were kicking the snot out of the Eagles in the playoffs in what was Randall’s last game in Philly. I remember.

I was in Herndon VA and it did sleet for a few hours but it was during the lull so it didn’t really cost us much accumulation.

Sleet got all the way into central MD in the 1996 storm too. Not saying that happens. Just saying this ggem run reminds me of that storm.

Ggem surface reminds me of 1996 with the initial extension of the trough to the north of the wave ip into KY before the transfer to the coast and an arctic high in the way.

Regardless of what the goofus says or any solution for one particular run, this is by far the best pattern we’ve seen since this god forsaken snow drought began in 2017. It looks very similar to past patterns that lead to some epic periods. This isn’t hyperbole, the analogs are lit up with our best snow periods of the last 30 years! It’s time to cash in. And I don’t mean eke out 4 or 5”. Yes I realize that could happen and no I’m not kicking a 4” snow out of bed. But we’ve had 9 years of epic suck. We’re due for a real run. And this pattern could do it. Let’s end this shit right now! Cash in all our “we’re due index” chips and put them on the damn table. It’s time.

If the GFS came out after the Euro/ggem/UK we wouldn’t even pay attention to it

It’s too far out for this

1.8, 1.2, .6