psuhoffman

Only thing I don’t get is everyone loves the 18z NAM and 0z is colder/flatter and more seem to be upset with it.

0z Nam at 78 is colder/flatter than 18z NAM. I don’t think the exact position of the Baja low matters that much assuming it does eventually eject most of the energy. The confluence matters but the ridging does also. One can offset the other. I think the ridging matters more. There is plenty of cold. Less southerly flow matters more. I think perhaps the most important and hardest to predict factor is the interaction with the two NS shortwaves, one over the top and the other coming in behind. The icon had one of those features gone and phased fully with the other and that’s why it went off the rails. Looking across guidance the handling of those features seems to be the most significant determinate.

Yea I see several offsetting thing. Less amped phases STJ wave more a stronger NS vort. Slightly less confluence to our north but less ridging to our south and a slightly flatter flow heading in. There is more than one variable. Can’t make definitive conclusions based on what one variable does.

EPS didn’t really move from my early look

Isn’t that the case usually? When we see these shifts inside 100 hours it seems to usually be related to NS features which are harder to resolve anyways and are diving down from sparsely sampled regions.

Ok this is not me being a weenie, yes it sucks BUT as we get closer it does eventually have to find the right solution and now it looks like the AIFS which is the best model lol. And the icon sucks even more. Ok pep talk over

I’ll feel better about everything if we clear 0z tomorrow night without major changes.

12z was really south though. 850s never get north of the northern neck

I don’t expect it. Just that’s the only way I can see this going completely devastatingly wrong.

the do sometimes but there is still a tendency to amp more the final 36-48 hours so we need this to stop stat and get maybe a bit of a south trend to give us room for what is likely to be a bit of bleeding north at the end.

Nothing shows this right now so this is purely me thinking “what could go wrong” and the only way I see Maryland not getting at least a warning level event from this would be if the wave splits and there is a front runner WAA wave that targets VA south of us then the main wave amplifies and cuts and we end up in between.

Looks similar to 12z ggem

so far 18z (NAM/ICON) coming in with slightly better confluence in front of the system and a flatter flow over the top. Not major changes but we don't need major changes. These changes are showing up at 48 hours which is a pretty believable range...if we see this continue across 18z guidance it would be a significant step in the right direction of avoiding the over amplified solutions.

one is simulated radar and the other is the previous time period precip, different things tend to show...different things

The 18z NAM is better than the 12z and was about to obliterate us...and that is the end of my analysis of the NAM at 84 hours.