psuhoffman

DCA: 14.8" BWI: 20.1" IAD: 23.3" RIC: 11.8" SBY: 17.7"

The only "sustained" blocking over the last 10 years (sustained being more than a one week transient episode) were January into early Feb 2016, March 2018 and mid Dec to mid Feb 2021. ETA: During the Dec-Mar period

Are places south of us getting more snow, or did some location south of us simply get one snowstorm at some point that we missed and you got frustrated? Because I am not finding these places south of us getting more snow. Average snowfall the last 10 years BWI: 12.31" DCA: 9.28" Salisbury MD: 9.49" Richmond VA: 6.66" Raleigh NC: 3.16" Charlotte NC: 1.88"

I've seen that long range snowfall monthly/seasonal anomaly map look like that a lot. And in reality over the last 20 years it has looked like that...look at some of the snowfall anomaly plots for this century. I think some of that is probably just the model reflecting the changes due to warming, and the fact that the "averages" it's using to calculate what is "normal" snowfall are lagging due to the warming. Look where the low and high anomalies are around the entire hemisphere. Higher anomalies to the north, lower along the south...what you would expect if climate zones were shifting north (which they are) in the means.

Below are the mean h5 anomalies for all the above normal snowfall months at BWI since 2000. What our ideal "snowy" pattern looks like changes a bit through the season. In December the pacific is much more important, with the most important anomalies being the EPO and AO regions. Later in winter the NAO anomalies are more strongly correlated with snowfall. Across the board the AO remains the most consistent predictor of snowfall probabilities. December January February

Some stuff we might find useful as we head into winter While February remains our snowiest month by the means (due in large part to 2010) January is the Winter month with the best odds of being above normal snowfall since 2000. Odds of an above avg snowfall month since 2000 at BWI Dec: 28% Jan: 40% Feb: 28% Mar: 20%

Jan to Feb 2016 was a legit blocking regime. Shame we only cashed in once but it was a big one at least. March 2018 but dunno if March counts But we had great blocking from mid December to early Feb 2021. It produced a great winter up here but nothing but perfect track rainstorms for DC that winter. That was one of the more depressing seasons in terms of wondering how much damage to DCs snow climo warming has had. No excuse for a single digit snow season with this h5 for the heart of winter!

It’s very worth it. It’s written like a text book on snowstorms. Get the expanded edition that has the extra volume that goes into the dynamics behind the storms.

Sorry I made my position clear. I can live with what I’m doing. Do what you think is right.

I made my choice. Do what you have to do. The weather doesn’t mean that much to me compared to what’s going on.

Sorry you’re gonna have to ban me. Permanently. I’m on my hill and I’m willing to die on it.

Things have definitely warmed after the 2016 super Nina and stayed in a permanent warmer base state due to the persistently torched pacific basin. Whether that is permanent is the question.

Some Nina’s overproduce. 1999-2000 for instance had no business being an above normal snowfall winter given the predominant long wave pattern. We just got lucky. So conversely when that season is in an analog set I warn people a repeat of that pattern could easily result in a single digit or worse snowfall season.

That’s another year that underproduced. I am not saying it should have been a blockbuster like it was to our north. We will always struggle and be on the southern or western fringe of a lot of storms in a Nina. But the fact they all totally skunked DC/Baltimore was somewhat bad luck. I think if you repeat that seasons pattern it’s another with a 75% chance we would do better. Again not like 30”+ better but I bet that kind of pattern yields a near median snowfall outcome more often then what happened that season.

He was the leader of that band for sure but it wasn’t just him.