psuhoffman

Because we had a god damn perfect epo/pna pattern. Of course it can still get cold if everything is fucking perfect. We’re talking about losing snow along the margins. losing those snows we used to sneak in when the pattern wasn’t good.

Oh I agree but I stopped making this point because some agree and they get tired of hearing it because it’s depressing and the others won’t believe it and will cite examples of when it’s cold as evidence it’s not warming and it’a a waste of time arguing with them

ok jus saying you said you never seen it and I gave you an example. I’m not saying this is the most common thing or we want a +400 N pac ridge. Of course not. Just that we have snowed with this kind of setup before when there were extenuating circumstances to overcome the pac pattern

Yup. This is the past 12 months. It’s red everywhere on average. Thicknesses are increasing. This is just the reality. And since snow requires cold…

That was the loading pattern. The pacific anomalies are identical.

We’ve had snowstorms in warm patterns before. When it was 45 the day before and after. We don’t need it to be arctic cold to get a snowstorm in mid February.

Remember the colors are just representative of height anomalies but the anomalies are using past 30 year climo so in a warming environment they are behind the curve. In the past the heights would be lower in the ridge and so you wouldn’t see red linking to the ridge in Canada. Increase all the heights and…ridges link easier and yes this is a huge issue but I don’t talk about it anymore because it’s obviously related to the elephant that we can’t talk about without a handful of people trying to blow up the thread for political reasons.

This was a snowstorm @Stormchaserchuck1. I got 10”!

That pna doesn’t amplify and dig in it kicks out east. The next one does and that will pump a ridge in the east.

Lol that’s definitely one of my points. Also trying to get him to answer if he thinks the 2017 on period (which has been our worst stretch ever and by a large margin) is the new normal because he seems to be using this current total fail period as his baseline for what is normal. And if so our disagreement makes sense because all my examples of this pattern working are from before 2017

We’re still talking past each other Chuck. I’m saying we used to be able to snow without PNA help. We used to get some snowstorms with a hostile pacific. YES you’re right since 2016 that hadn’t been true. Lately when the pac is bad we got to absolute shit and torch so bad there is no hope. But I am saying historically that wasn’t true. Especially if you go back prior to like 2000! Bet there were some examples even up to 2015. But since…the last decade the pac has been impossible to overcome. When the pac is bad it torches us. I’m asking you if you think that’s just the new normal and getting snow despite a pad pac pattern is a thing of the past.

We pop a +400 ridge in the pad multiple times every damn winter now. You can’t hardly find any examples of that even in the absolute worst PDO winters in the past prior to 2000 so of course there are no examples.

There are some examples of +200-250 N pad ridges and snow…but a +250 ridge in 1960 is probably a +400 now! Heights are higher! So you won’t see that because a +400 ridge was unheard of in the past and would have been so anomalous for that period it would have dominated the pattern.

Omg we are talking past each other. Yes since 2017 -pna hasn’t worked. I’ve said that. But that’s one of the reasons since 2017 has been the worst 9 year snow drought in our history. You’re using the absolute worst 9 years EVER as your baseline! If that’s what you’re saying is normal we’re Fooked and I might as well find a new hobby. I’m saying I am assuming things go back to normal (or at least better than the last 9 years have been) at some point. Baltimore is only averaging 12” if snow since 2016! There are 2 reasons for that. 1) we’ve been in a hostile PDO pac regime. Past periods like this were low snow periods. But this one has been worse. Much worse! Why? Because we aren’t even getting the fluke occasions snows we used to get in a crap pacific pattern. You think that continues? You think 12” is what is normal in Baltimore now?

Most of our snowstorms with a hostile PNA were warm storms that were barely cold enough to snow with warm temps on either side of the storm. Lots of examples where it was 48 the day before and 47 the day after and like 55-60 within a few days either side. At least the Jan Feb ones. March we have more examples of colder regimes with a hostile PNA due to shorter wavelengths. But we have snowed in “warm” regimes before if we get a perfect storm track. Feb 1987 being the best example!