psuhoffman

Preach

The blocking trended better but the wave leaves too much energy behind and the EPS washes it out on most members as the weaker wave that ejects gets shredded by the flow. We need a stronger wave with that look

looks like a mix of 1966, 1978, 1993 and 2003

@CAPE WRT AIFS ENS There are only 2 members that have any snow at all from the lead wave next week. The median snowfall from Saturday evening to Monday evening of PD weekend is about 3-4" across our area. The mean is closer to 5". The split is about 30% of the members have a VERY big storm with a classic 95 points NW MECS/HECS signature. Then there are another 20% that have something pretty decent...2-4 to 4-6" type storms...a few members have something very minor and about 40% have absolutely nothing. It was an improvement over the last 3 runs and got us back to where we were 24 hours ago when I made that post showing how "interesting" they looked. BUt yes...the total mean is inflated some. BTW, they are interested in your window too...the median spikes up another 1-3" during your period and the mean about 2-3" which is significant for that lead time

Which is my point. It used to be cold enough to overcome imperfections in patterns. I’ll give you an example. When I looked at every 5”+ snow at Baltimore from 1948 on there was a subset of storms in fall Hudson Bay high storms. Because the whole pattern was utter dog shit except for that one feature. Because a high there tended to force a favorable storm track and almost all these storms were warm and barely cold enough to snow. The most recent example was 1997. A horrible pattern. -pna. But we got an 8” wet snow storm when it was like 45-50 the day before and after the storm. But those have gone extinct. Now they are just perfect track rainstorms. Lately when the pattern isn’t perfect it’s too warm.

I could show you dozens of examples of snowstorms with a similar look

That’s not going to happen…but if it did, mid Feb, with a cold N Amer profile, a block and 50/50, and a perfect track rainstorm…I have the final chapter of my book

Mdecoy knows

The pacific is really hostile around Feb 13-19 you’re right. But…there is a leftover cold regime and look at the Atlantic. We’re not just talking about some help. Look at that 50/50. If that Baja wave ejects into that…I don’t care what the pacific long wave pattern is that could work. Typically we’d be dead with that pac look but if that 50/50 presentation is close with the cold left over from the previous pattern this isn’t the typical setup.

Fringed with 2 feet

Euro and EPS is leaving too much energy back in Baja and washing out what’s left. Maybe. But if that’s wrong and a stronger wave comes out…it’s actually trended better with the blocking in front. Imagine if it didn’t leave the Baja energy behind and instead attacks this Atlantic setup with a healthy wave! I think the threat still exists. It’s not likely but anytime there is a setup with big potential I’ll pay attention. Sooner or later we have to get lucky.

Hmm I do hear what you’re saying. But I actually thought the long range guidance improves today in those regards. On the EPS and GEfS I saw signs the pacific was evolving to a workable less awful configuration with a poleward WPO ridge starting to link to ridge bridge to the AO and some troughing showing up near Hawaii again. That configuration is worlds different from the +400 anomalies just north of Hawaii we saw in recent years. Much less hostile impacts downstream imo. This doesn’t look that bad to me

@Stormchaserchuck1 the last 10 years a hostile EPO/PNA is a killer and been game over but historically that’s not always been true. We’ve had plenty of snowstorms without an EPO PNA ridge. But it depends on several things. 1) the antecedent thermal profile across N America. If the continent is torched it won’t work. 2) AO/NAO without blocking up top and a favorable Atlantic pattern it’s game over. 3) the depth of any PNA trough. Factors 1&2 can overcome a -1 PNA. If the PNA ends up -3.5 it’s probably game over. So I’m not saying you’re wrong but it’s not as simple as “we lots the EPO PNA game over”. If those 3 factors go our way we can still snow. But the last 10 Years everytime the pna went wrong everything else went wrong too. And if we did have some blocking help the PNA went some crazy -4 or something which is impossible to overcome, especially earlier in the season which some of those cases were. So curious…do you see wings the PNA is going so hostile, or that those other factors will also ne unfavorable…or are you ignoring everything else and just looking at the PNA. Because while the PNA has been a great single indicator recently it’s not always been that way and hopefully doesn’t continue to be because some of our best snowstorms came with a -PNA

I'm a gonna be greedy...I want BOTH

@Jersey Andrew but… I should add that 83 storm was a classic Nino STJ moisture bomb storm like Feb 2010 and Jan 2016. If we do get a MECS HECS storm it’s unlikely to have that level of STJ moisture feed. Even 96 didn’t. It had to snow for 36 hours to get those crazy totals in 1996. Our absolute top end is probably capped a little by the Nina. But we can definitely get VERY big snowstorms in a Nina.