psuhoffman

Dude you can’t start a fight and then cry you’re being persecuted. That post was super passive aggressive and you knew exactly what you were doing. You even said so “I know I’m gonna get weenied for this” ok so be a man and take the heat since you asked for it but don’t kick sand in everyone’s face then whine that they aren’t being nice to you

I can’t know what others think but I know our climo. I know most threats fail. I know it’s unlikely we get a big snowstorm next weekend. There’s a chance. That’s it. In tracking because maybe this is the time we win. It’s the same as sports. You know most seasons your team isn’t going to win the championship. But you follow. Because there is the chance maybe this time they will. You know it’s not likely. Some years maybe you go in thinking you have a better chance. But even the team with the absolute best odds only has maybe a 10% chance going into the season. Thats this. Sometimes we have a slightly better chance to win. But we know it’s not good any given threat for a week out. Just my 2 cents. Maybe it was you who misunderstood the odds and now you are venting in frustration.

I think maybe you need to listen to some calming music and plan a snow chase somewhere or something. Or maybe find a more fulfilling hobby. This is not said in jest. Life’s too short to be this frustrated about anything.

I think maybe you’re confusing frustration with analysis. Rain is the more likely outcome in any given threat by default due to our location. That part is true. But using the op run of the absolute worst model to “analyze” this specific storm threat isn’t good analysis. Applying your fear that our typical climo issues will prevail isn’t analysis either. That’s true of every single threat. You could say that a week out every time. But sometime it does snow. Yes we fail 90% of the time but if you simply rely on climo you will miss the rare times we win. What you did was lazy because instead of looking at this specific situation and analyzing it independently you simply applied your frustrations based on our climo limitations to justify dismissing it without analyzing it.

Sure… I know you’re kidding but it couldn’t fail worse than that last thread did lol

I think that’s accurate. There are more ways to get some snow from a multiple wave solution but less chance of a huge storm. A more amplified wave introduces a MECS+ potential but a total fail if that one wave misses. I’ll take my chances with an amped up monster storm. Another 3-4” of snow won’t change my opinion of this winter at all. But a 10”+ storm definitely would.

The biggest issue I think the guidance has to resolve is how consolidated the pacific energy ends up. Guidance is split between multiple weaker wave solutions and two wave (lead weak wave followed by a more amplified follow up) solution. There are ways we could “win” in either permutation but until it’s known which we are dealing with the details can’t be known.

lol

Yea I think the idea is legit. But where the snow zone ends up, whether this ends up one stronger wave or multiple weaker boundary waves…major details that determine whose backyards get snow won’t be known for a while. But I agree confidence is increasing in the general flavor of the period.

@mitchnick but at this range I’m not married to any idea. I think this is a legit threat but we need to get closer to 100 hours before I’ll even try to get specific about it. And even then know further adjustments will happen. We’re still in the “this is interesting I’ll keep an eye on it” range.

At this range it was teasing us. But this is not the same situation or setup. It’s more similar to the Jan 25 storm and the AI did very well with that.

You don’t see the setup this clear on an ensemble this far out often. The crazy thing is the blocking is all that makes this work. Similar to Feb 2010, the pacific longwave pattern would normally scream huge SER but the displaced TPV and 50/50 there won’t allow it. The fight between the attempt to ridge in front of the approaching wave and the blocked in cold is what will create the threat. We’ve got snowstorms from this exact setup many times.

The median increased also!

You mthr FCKN ninja

AIFS EPS still very interested. Save yourselves time and don’t look at op runs past 100 hours. Not saying this is going to happen. There is uncertainty even among the various ensembles. But worrying about the op runs at this range will just add confusion and noise.