psuhoffman

Yes but that system had an STJ wave associated with it. That was a miller a/b hybrid. It definitely phased late. So similar but not a pure NS miller b like this. These are even more precarious for us.

The best sign is someone said JB thinks it’s going to be warm.

It’s hard to see that clearly because this bigger amplification is in front of it and will impact the flow behind it. But that wave is a more normal way for us to get a snowstorm. Nothing in this type pattern is likely a super long track thing. Models just aren’t resolving these waves at range in this noisy flow with phasing involved. But that one is feel more comfortable if it looked good across guidance at say 48 or 72 hours. This first one I won’t feel good until I see the death band over me! I am also not sold this is over after the 20th. The day 15 across guidance doesn’t look bad to me. -AO, trough near Hawaii. PNA going positive again. Frankly it looks like the day 5-10 looked when it was at day 15. Im pretty sure it’s going to snow this month. In just warning against trying to identify the exact threat at range in this pattern. It’s likely we won’t know until inside 2-3 days when we do finally get a hit.

I’m feeling optimistic still in general. Just saying I’m not putting any emotional investment on this one particular threat. Been burned way too many times by these type things. I’ll get excited when I see the flakes falling with these miller b NS phase setups.

Honestly this isn’t the kind of setup that gets resolved until inside 72 hours. Maybe 48. And honestly this exact type setup when we’re waiting on a surface redevelopment associated with NS phasing and an amplifying upper low…is some of our biggest last minute busts. A recent example was March 8 2018. Expecting 4-8” across Maryland 12 hours out and the whole thing developed late and totally missed us. And I could rattle off more examples both good and bad. Similar one in 1996 and the other way. We went to bed expecting nothing and a NJ northeast storm and we got 6-10”. This is not a long track type thing. Even if it looked great at 48 hours I’d be hella nervous. Just warning y’all in case we get some kind of consensus in the next day or two…I still wouldn’t feel great. These type setups historically have given the models fits right up until game time. And unfortunately the typical error is for things to get going slower and shift northeast at the end. Not always. I have an example that developed southwest of guidance but it was 30 years ago!

We haven’t had any HECS level events from this type of progression. Not impossible. I’m sure given enough time it will happen. But a more modest snow event is a more likely outcome if we get snow at all. We’ve had plenty of secs and some MECS level events from this type of setup. The total fail scenario is of wave 1 amplifies a lot but misses us, most likely would be a late development or north like euro but that prevents wave 2 from having room to amplify. If wave 1 goes nuts we need a hit.

Most of that was from threats inside day 7. You won’t see a mean like that from a pattern that’s mostly day 7+

As long as the AO remains negative and the pacific ridge remains displaced north (no crazy ridge just north of Hawaii) we will continue to have chances and I see no signs of either of those things flipping yet

your post was better, keep it up

better

It strings out the energy, way too far out to worry about that

I have nothing to add regarding any of the specific threats, they are all too far out for me to waste time on run to run permutations. But my general thoughts regarding the overall pattern is that it's been pretty rare for us to time up a good h5 pattern with our snowiest climo period (which is by far mid Jan to mid Feb). One of our problems, among many, over the last 10 years as been that our best chances for snow have come outside that period. We've been fighting for scraps along the edges of the cold season in many years. Right now the pattern across all guidance for the second half of January looks very favorable. It's supported by tropical forcing. If we get an extended cold pattern from mid January into Feb I'll take my chances. It won't help us with the STJ, we're going to have to deal with phasing and NS issues and it will still be a struggle, but one we have a much better chance of winning if we get a good pattern timed up during our snowiest climo period.

Maybe this will be its 2006 JMA moment

I agree and hope people don't take my previous post to mean I'm cancelling winter. But I see how it might have been taken that way. My point was just that in a vacuum a nina fading isn't necessarily a good thing. I tend to think the fact that the results have actually been WORSE in those instances is just a fluke of a small sample size, and while I do think the factors I mentioned above mean the odds don't automatically go up when a nina fades...we can get snowy periods during a cold enso, or even a neutral. Flukes happen. 2000 we had nothing going into late January and then one of our snowiest 10 day periods of the last 30 years. 2005-6 we had some snow in december then nothing until a MECS in mid February. 1999 was awful then we got a snowy period in March. Same with 2018. And these things can happen in an enso neutral following a nina also, it's probably just the small sample size that we haven't run into it yet. All that to say I do think we get snow the rest of the way. I don't know how much. My expectations are starting to lower some, we largely wasted several chances the first 1/3 of winter and that has to be factored in. But I do not think we get shut out the rest of the way. The pattern doesn't look like the examples of dreg shut out type winters at all.

True The other issue is we use 30 year means that are actually lagging in a decreasing trend so the means might be misleading. I am not saying the trend will continue, I have no interest in having this fight again right now, but IF...IF the trend does continue eventually the mean for Baltimore, for example, will be about 13" and then a lot of these winters classified as "below normal" looking back would just be normal or slightly above normal if we applied a 30 year mean centered on that year (using both 15 seasons before and after it).