psuhoffman

Ggem

Rgem

If you adjust the snow/ice line 20-30 miles NW to account for its inability to see mid level warm layers it’s not that far from the ggem and EC anymore

Down to 13 here

I went 6-10 along 95

MD is kind of dry slotted after the snow thump on the NAM so only 1-2” of sleet but a ton down in VA

It’s fine. 10” in DC. 12” IAD. 13” up here.

Trick, the FV3 is almost always similar to the gfs inside 48 hours. Similar to the rgem/ggem. So if you want to know about what the gfs is going to look like just look at the FV3 now.

It’s because the warm layer is at its greatest extent there and thin and it’s wobbling based on rates. Around 20z we’re in a dry slot then it sinks south during some heavier precip

@wxmeddler I think bc you let us know about the Dr U convo you were gonna be low. I sorta expected that too, unfairly.

Looks like the gfs only the CAM version

Not saying it’s right but the range thing isn’t why because it does things that lead to this result in just 24 hours. Now the it sucks issue might be why.

I actually like the 18z rgem slightly better than 12z. WTF I’m out. I need to find something less stressful and more reliable. Oh I know I’ll start rooting for the local sports teams!