psuhoffman

They were but...lol...euro totally missed the 14" we got the evening before...and then still was about .5 qpf too low for the second part. It was a pretty epic fail of the euro at very short lead

FWIW the evening before the Feb 9 2010 storm the Euro was showing about .65 qpf total for me. I got 32" of snow.

no snow for you...you come back one year

Consult the chart

yes

I posted some of our biggest snows and busts side by side once with the date removed and no one could tell them apart. March 2001 was one of the busts. The setup is often the same between a big hit and a bust and luck with minor factors tip things one way or the other.

March 58

in fairness this is a setup where I feel a LOT better here than around DC

@mitchnick @Ji @stormtracker a random thought about the AIFS and all guidance in general. Yes the AIFS will still bounce around at range with details. Exact track. Intensity. It’s not a miracle. It’s performing better than everything else. Take that fwiw. However, over the last 72 hours the thing it keeps bouncing back to is a hecs lol. It goes one way or another but it’s now spit out 5 hecs runs over 72 hours. This is the default it keeps coming back too. That’s important. It’s not some random fluke run. It’s shown up over and over. Doesn’t mean it’s the only solution. But it’s not a crazy outlier permutation it’s a real possibility or at least AIFS things so. In general this is true also. Maybe not hecs but secs/MECS the guidance bounces bit keeps coming back to snow! There was only one other time this winter when the preponderance of evidence was for a storm. Jan 25. All the others we were rooting for the long shot permutations not the most likely. Some were decent shots. 30% maybe 40% but none had a preponderance suggesting yes this is happening. Thats it. That’s the observation. Doesn’t mean we snow. I do think this is our best shot of the season other than Jan 25 from 5 days out.

Look at some of the -pna snowstorms in the 60s. It can happen. Especially if that 50/50 and Hudson high combo verify. But yea what could go wrong is more likely because snow is never the most likely outcome unless it’s that rare -NAO El Niño situation.

Only

Ask him why he thinks it’s going to be warm

@Stormchaserchuck1 you can’t claim every non snow scenario as your win. Of course not snowing is the most likely outcome. There are a ton of permutations and most end in no snow. But you can’t say “it won’t snow because the storm will be too warm, or suppressed, it just miss us, or over amped and track NE. Well duh. Ya likely one or those lol. You mean it’s not likely all the multitude of things we need to go right to get snow will all happen. Nostradamus over here.

@mitchnick. FWIW all The ensembles think the bigger risk is an over amped miss to our NW

Euro trend last 24 hours. If it did keep this up maybe another 2 more equivalent shifts and it would be a hit.