psuhoffman

Is it possible that for once “what could go right” happens instead of…what we’re used to

I don’t think that’s the intent. CAPE can correct me if I’m wrong but genuine comments and questions are ok. But this thread is a place to actually analyze without 500 clown snow maps and bickering. This way those that want that kind of more “fun” relaxed but storm related banter have that thread and here we can do deeper analysis without wading through the BS. It’s a way to have both.

I was talking about grayhat

Here is the problem with what you’re doing. Yea…every single threat we identify at day 10 is likely to fail. And it’s not even close. Many of these we now are like 5-10% chances. So if you just follow climo and say it’s not gonna snow you’ll be right 90% of the time. But it also means you will miss every single time it does snow. You’ll never accurately identify the “threat” for snow. Think of it like a tornado watch. I’ve been under one maybe a hundred times. Only once did a tornado end up affecting me. Did they mean the other 99 were a mistake? No they were identifying the threat. If they went with climo theyd never issue a tornado watch and be right most of the time but catastrophically wrong when a tornado does hit! It’s also like sports. I could just say the Eagles won’t win the super bowl Every single year and I’d be right 95% of the time but what fun is that?

He is in southern Delaware. This next threat was never good for him. He is very transparent.

Yea for the lowlands to “win” in a thermal regime like this you’d need a true coastal track. The problem is the wave is de-amplifying as it hits the Atlantic flow. So I don’t see how that scenario is on the table. Ideally you’d want a weak wave initially that amplifies on the coast but that’s not on the table. The win for areas NW of 95 is a stronger wave to the west that transfers just in time. Maxes dynamic cooling to take advantage of the marginal cold we have. The reason that could work is there isn’t some deep phased trough to our west this time. There is a split flow with the NS out the FCKN way for once and a cut off system traversing under the NS flow. So there isn’t that screaming SW wind ahead of the wave to destroy our mid level thermals. A marginal cold can work here but the issue for SE is 95 is that because of the flow deamplifying we need a stronger wave to our west to get anything and that will wreck the low level thermals for coastal areas.

GFS is on Chucks team. It’s weaker with the flow and allows the pacific wave to gain too much latitude before transferring.

Except right now it’s not snowing for the opposite reason you said. But you don’t actually know enough or care enough for that to matter. For you all that matters is it’s not snowing. Not the why. Because you weren’t analyzing the specifics of this synoptic event you were just bitching about our unfavorable snow climo. And greyhat is a troll who is gaslighting everyone. You know how I know…he has made the same “mistake” a dozen times. He will take the warmest thermal plot he can find within 24 hours of a threat and post it. The warmest model in a cycle or a panel that’s 24 hours after the snow threat when it’s warmed up…and he keeps doing that! If it was an accident, if he just kept making mistakes because he is new, wouldn’t he sometimes accidentally post the coldest model or accidentally the right time? No…because he is doing it on purpose and acting like he is just some newb who can’t help it. And I’ve noticed he does it the most when It’s a storm that is worse for his area. This upcoming threat was never good for Delaware. Even if we get it to work out this is more a NW of 95 thing and so he is being a jackass and pissing in the pool because if he isn’t getting snow F everyone else. you both are transparent. He is a troll. You simply want snow and don’t care how or why and throw a tantrum when we go too long without it.

I don’t think this particular threat is high probability SE of 95. You’re right that area is in a double bind. Any stronger wave will initially try to gain latitude in the Midwest because there is some ridging there. It will get blocked by the Atlantic flow eventually but without arctic air in place not sure what the “Win” scenario for SE of 95 is. Even if things go the way we want it’s probably more a 95 NW threat. Even the snowier solutions were indicating that.

Yes it did. I was debating whether to say that or wait another run to see If it’s a blip

Id lean against it also, But I never right it was likely so maybe I’ve gone from giving it a 40% to a 20% chance. But the adjustment we need is still minor, a stronger pacific wave ejecting. How many times did we have a snow threat at 150 Hours and that trend hurt us by causing a more amped wave to trend north? It happens all the damn time, when we don’t want it to! Why can’t I happen when We need it? Because we are living in a simulation programmed by someone who was hurt in a past life my a mid Atlantic snow weenie and the whole purpose of this simulation is to inflict the maximum amount of emotional trauma on DC snow lovers.

We are still far enough out for that to adjust again. We need that Baja wave to eject stronger and the Atlantic flow to be slightly less suppressive. It wouldn’t take much, an adjustment well within a typical 150 hour error, but we’ve been so unlucky for so long that I think we juts assume nothing good will happen. Which given our climo is usually right. Snow here isn’t a “fair” game. There are like 10 major variables and we need almost all of them to go right. There are way more losing combinations than winning ones so every threat is more likely to fail. I mean even in the rare cases when we get the flow to be cold enough then we have to worry the storm gets squashed or goes south of us! But eventually if we keep playing we will roll the right combination and get lucky.

All the guidance has flipped places. The GEPS is now the most favorable and the Euro stuff the least.

Oz guidance across the board didn’t eject enough energy and trended more suppressive with the Atlantic look. Bad combo. Result is this. We need x to be where y is and stronger but that’s redundant because for it to be where y is it would have to be stronger.

Oz guidance across the board didn’t eject enough energy and trended more suppressive with the Atlantic look. Bad combo. Result is this. We need x to be where y is and stronger but that’s redundant because for it to be where y is it would have to be stronger.