psuhoffman

Maybe this will be its 2006 JMA moment

I agree and hope people don't take my previous post to mean I'm cancelling winter. But I see how it might have been taken that way. My point was just that in a vacuum a nina fading isn't necessarily a good thing. I tend to think the fact that the results have actually been WORSE in those instances is just a fluke of a small sample size, and while I do think the factors I mentioned above mean the odds don't automatically go up when a nina fades...we can get snowy periods during a cold enso, or even a neutral. Flukes happen. 2000 we had nothing going into late January and then one of our snowiest 10 day periods of the last 30 years. 2005-6 we had some snow in december then nothing until a MECS in mid February. 1999 was awful then we got a snowy period in March. Same with 2018. And these things can happen in an enso neutral following a nina also, it's probably just the small sample size that we haven't run into it yet. All that to say I do think we get snow the rest of the way. I don't know how much. My expectations are starting to lower some, we largely wasted several chances the first 1/3 of winter and that has to be factored in. But I do not think we get shut out the rest of the way. The pattern doesn't look like the examples of dreg shut out type winters at all.

True The other issue is we use 30 year means that are actually lagging in a decreasing trend so the means might be misleading. I am not saying the trend will continue, I have no interest in having this fight again right now, but IF...IF the trend does continue eventually the mean for Baltimore, for example, will be about 13" and then a lot of these winters classified as "below normal" looking back would just be normal or slightly above normal if we applied a 30 year mean centered on that year (using both 15 seasons before and after it).

I should just make that my winter forecast every year “unfortunately”

Unfortunately there is no evidence a nina weakening during the winter period actually helps us at all. I understand where this narrative comes from. Nina is bad...so nina ending must be good right? Problem is there is no actual evidence of this. Now it's an incredibly small sample size so take it for what it is, but the last 2 examples and the only 2 in the last 30 years where a nina faded during the winter were two of our worst least snowy winters ever, 2016-17 and 2022-23. Going back 50 years there have been 5 examples and not a single one turned snowy because of the nina fading. 2 and 5 are small samples so maybe its just a fluke but I tend to think the issue is with 2 other factors not being weighted in the "nina bad so nina ending good" logic. 1) there is a lag to enso impacts on the pattern 2) enso neutral isn't necessarily any better anymore. This doesn't get talked about much but the most significant cause of our snowfall degradation is what has happened to enso neutral winters. From 1900 to 1995 enso neutral winters were significantly snowier than cold enso winters, and the odds of an above normal snowfall season in enso neutral was significantly higher, and almost as high as Nino winters. However in the last 30 years 6 of the 7 enso neutral winters were below average snowfall at BWI and the median snowfall for enso neutral is actually no better than nina years during that period. So if you factor in those 2 things...nina fading to neutral during the winter doesn't really do us any good because of the lag and the fact the enso neutral isn't any better anymore.

I’m actually with Ji and Chuck on this one. The means don’t mean everything but they can give clues and if you look under the hood the reason the temps aren’t warmer is due to dry cold shots behind cutters and frontal passages. When it’s wet it’s warm across almost every single member. I’ve been away and haven’t really dig into anything for 2 weeks but when I did last night for the first time my initial reaction was yuck. And disappointed, I expected a better January. The good news is it’s not a no hope pattern. Yea as is it’s not good with waves to our north then cold dry periods. The dreaded warm wet cold dry. But some minor shifts and it becomes possible to get snow. So I’m not saying January is cooked. But the actual snow prospects aren’t as good as the pretty h5 and surface temp means look if you dig deeper.

Looks good to me

I’m very optimistic for January.

I've been mostly quiet lately...some of that is how busy I've been, some is that I've lost interest in digging into 300 hour stuff and my life is better for it. But you all know I am not shy about calling time of death on a winter around xmas. I've done it before when it really does look bad. Even a couple days ago when the models looked bad for the next couple weeks I never got the sense this was a total dud winter. There are some things that are typical of that... an impending +++AO combined with a strong broad mid latitude central pacific ridge combined with a natural or cold enso. If you see those 3 things across long range guidance heading towards New Years...it's game over. Maybe we get a fluke one off thing but for the most part the winter is dead on arrival. We have not seen that this year. Not at all. The pacific ridge is displaced poleward. The AO has been variable with NAO help at times. These are not the hallmarks of a total dud winter. We will probably get chances. Maybe we get lucky. Maybe not. But there will be things to track this winter. I feel confident in that. I am not saying it's going to be a great winter...or even a good one (although maybe if we do get lucky, it only takes one big storm) but we will have chances.

I'm in Florida until the 3rd. Can we extend one day... you could probably use a day to recover anyways right?

This is pretty perfect pattern for skiers. Gonna be good for New England and most of the west from Colorado north.

I’ll be back in time for the 1996 redux

I’ll be gone from Dec 26-Jan 3 so not paying as much attention as normal but I do think that period holds serious potential for exactly this type of event. I don’t think it’s a huge storm setup. Waves will likely not be amplifying in that flow. But I definitely see a healthy NS wave getting forced under us and it doesn’t take a lot of moisture to make something decent work out in that setup.