psuhoffman

Yea that was my thought also. Sometimes an average when there are two distinct sub sets within the analogs is the least likely outcome! I get it that some feel pressured to make a definitive forecast but the truth is a good forecast would be to say “we have an elevated risk of a historic snowstorm this winter, it’s going to be wet, but it might end up too warm and in that case a snowless winter and it’s about 50/50 odds”. If people aren’t smart enough to digest some nuance and ambiguity oh well. Fake certainty does no one any good.

JB’s top 6 analogs show what we’re facing. 3 has an HECS storm. The other 3 were snowless winters.

Ugh. How is this not getting more backlash? Seems to be a pretty big deal to me.

@WxUSAF @CAPE @das@MillvilleWx @Terpeast Not sure why this isn’t getting more attention or maybe it is and I missed it but NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis has been discontinued as of March. This is the primary source of all those analog composites you see posted in the discussion threads. As of now I’ve seen nothing in terms of what’s replacing it. How can that be? It’s a major tool. Hopefully someone can tell me I’m wrong and there is another option I just don’t know about for this data moving forward.

Gun to head a similar progression to 2016 is my thinking. Probably a not so great start to winter transitioning colder as it goes along. People forget how close we were to more snowstorms in Feb and March in 2016. It didn’t come together but the pattern was decent from Jan 15 on

Fringed

This is troubling but a sample size of 2 is hard to draw strong conclusions

Let’s just use pure math for now to set expectations. If we use Ninos that reached > +1.5 during winter 5/9 or 56% had a HECS. If we use years that reached > +2 during winter 2/3 or 66% had a HECS. Clearly we have a significantly elevated probability of a HECS this winter. But yes for the DEBs the caution is the years in that analog set that didn’t have an HECS were really really really awful winters for the most part.

Ok im going to nerd out and vent here. For those who dont know, after they got creative control from Stan Lee Marvel decided Spider Man was easier to write for single and also said, and Im not kidding, that fans relate easier to a single lonely spider man. Apparently they think the fans are all incels. So they had him make a deal with the devil to erase his marriage to Mary Jane to save his 70 year old aunt. And no they arent unhappy in their marriage. They are both insanely in love which makes the story even more insulting. And frankly character destroying. How can you root for someone who would do something that horrific? The writing was lazy. The premise was ridiculous. The justification was insulting. It’s the one time Stan Lee violated his agreement not to criticize Marvels creative decisions. He also undid it in the news comic strip he kept editorial control of before his death and severed the continuity between his strip and the marvel comic because he was so upset by what they did to his character. The main writer at the time MJS who also wrote Babylon 5 wanted his name taken off that issue he was also so bothered by it. My reaction was simple. I checked out. I have not read or watched a single Marvel anything since. Not a single spider man. Not a single avengers. Nothing. I won’t give my money to an organization that insults me to that level. What amazes me is I’m not alone in my assessment of “One more day”. It’s widely considered the most hated comic story ever. There are thousands of online forums dedicated to how much people hated it and want them to undo it and put Peter and MJ back together. But then I see those same people posting about going to see Avengers or the new Spider Man movie. I am just as annoyed with them as I am Marvel. If they stopped giving them $ like I have they would have undid their mistake a long time ago. When I started my own personal boycott 19 years ago now I thought it would take 5 years tops before they undid this nonsense. It was so hated. But everyone got angry then continued to read and watch anything marvel put out and 19 years later I’m still waiting. I won’t ever read or watch until they undo OMD and get them back together and I don’t mean the casual dating they sometimes allow I mean restore the stable marriage they had and stop thinking spider man had to be a miserable single screw up to be a compelling character. His most popular run was the decades he was married. Anyways why are people supporting a franchise that would insult them this way? I don’t mean the casual fans who have no idea what I’m talking about. I mean the ones who fill up Reddit with how mad they are then go to the next movie.

my response to him was the best one

The configuration matters also. Some of the guidance is strongly east based and some is basin wide with one model I saw still indicating a mostly west based. If it does go super nino, a basin wide configuration gives us a much better chance at one huge event than the east based look on the euro. That last euro run would be a 1998 type winter. PUKE

Apparently he is ill. I only know what was posted in this thread a bit ago.

I Don’t wish harm on anyone and hope @RevWarReenactor makes a full recovery.

Just saw this...so sad. RIP