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Nomz

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Everything posted by Nomz

  1. Nomz
    How’s it looking? Haven’t had time to weather nerd today and last night.
  2. Nomz
    I’m unfortunately going to be doing some I Told You So
  3. Nomz
    Seeing clouds with the arctic blast overspreading the blue ridge from 81
  4. Nomz
    AIFS has been deadly this winter so I'll take it in our corner
  5. Nomz
    If we get a sequel event next week, I'm not staying up to see the 00z euro till we're at least within 72 hours.
  6. Nomz
    I think you already screwed us lol
  7. Nomz
    Winter storm warnings from Mexico to Boston. Anyways Georgetown just cancelled for the poor saps that have classes Sunday.
  8. Nomz
    I was just looking at the 10:1 snow map and it looked off up north and figured it would have upstream effects.
  9. Nomz
    No clue how good the RAP is with winter wx, but I like it more than the NAM for severe wx. Gives us 7.7 inches on 10:1 at the end of the model run and coincidentally right before the changeover
  10. Nomz
    when green line go past blue line bad
  11. Nomz
    Probably a ratio thing then... lucky fucks up north probably getting 15+:1
  12. Nomz
    AIFS has something at like h300 but its a miller b
  13. Nomz
    Euro seems unusually dry. Even places up north like BOX and ALY only see just over 10 inches on 10:1.
  14. Nomz
    Making hot chocolate again. Are we still cliff diving?
  15. Nomz
    Are ratios solely based on surface temps, assuming there isn’t an above freezing warm nose?
  16. Nomz
    Bit of a culture shock for me man. 6-10 of snow and sleet Sunday AM would have an outside shot of getting us out of Monday.
  17. Nomz
    Meanwhile I’m having to argue with people who expect 1+ because Apple Weather is the worst app ever created. It feels like a psyop to destroy trust in meteorology.
  18. Nomz
    However, I did see someone who was way in over their head take the h288 GFS from 12z yesterday verbatim (the one that showed like 40" in DC) so maybe we're not ready for that
  19. Nomz
    I had the same question and didn't get any answers. I don't think a single model has been close to 24" since Tuesday. I think I could chatGPT an app that produces better precip forecasts than apple weather.
  20. Nomz
    Went from this on Wednesday To this today (DC)
  21. Nomz
    Totally meaningless, but it has been depressing to watch the Saturday and Sunday night low temps creep up like 3 degrees.
  22. Nomz
    Like I said, the “Expected Total: Official NWS Forecast” map is 100% computer generated. I think it runs every 10 min, iirc it was :02, :12 up in NWS BOX.
  23. Nomz
    For sure the 00z suite was a small win, but people are really searching for a huge shift south to recover all our losses. It’s like gambling to cover loses.
  24. Nomz
    The more agressive map is the one in the “Local Winter Key Messages” while the other one is the autogenerated “Day 0-3 Snow and Range of Possibilities.” Usually the Key Messages one is more conservative and more accurate though, so I’m not sure what’s going on.
  25. Nomz
    Boston also salts heavily, although recently we've probably rationed our supply better (also there hasn't been much winter precip) since 2015 when we nearly ran out of salt and sand. If you've ever driven up to where 95 meets 128, you'll see one of the massive salt warehouses.
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