Nomz

Never ever doubted the euro... lol

Huge win DC-RIC. Pulls a good chunk of VA out of the gutter.

making hot chocalate. maybe this will summon the powder

I know it's just the weenie in me talking, but what are the odds of a significant (3F+) error in the 700mb temperature? I have zero idea how accurate models are with just plain temps.

Does anyone know what's causing these very odd mesoscale banding features on the 24h snowfall at h252? Is it just long range chaos?

"Oh no, I have to see 30+ inches of snow!"

I've played these games before...

Sorry, if you're referring to me. Forgot this thread existed. Has there been any support on non GFS fam models for this one? Synoptically, we're pretty guaranteed to have cold air but idk anything else.

Worth noting that the LWX AFD says "Snow to liquid ratios look to start around 15-18:1 with this system for the entirety of the area, while then trending down toward 7-10:1 Sunday morning into the afternoon"

From LWX AFD

GFS drops the nuke again at the end of the month. Not a forecast.

It's salvageable because we only need models to be off by like 2C to get us back to a foot. Lot easier to get a 2C error than a .5 QPF error.

Oh, I know I'll be better up there. Just very spiteful about it. Anyways, either GFS should be permanently ignored or it's about to go on the greatest model Linsanity run I've ever seen.

GFS is a money run

Some weenie cope for us if the GFS somehow holds

But when we get to this point, all that stuff is baked into the models already. If they're presenting the same on models, they have the same chance of going north or south regardless of the temperature of the Pacific Ocean.

But the thing is, it isn't. Any storm like this has the same odds to uptrend or downtrend regardless of ENSO state. It just doesn't matter in this small of a timeframe.

Look at my location. First winter away from Boston for college. Debating between wanting this to stay as it is so we can get some good thump, and hoping for it shoot way north so I don't have to see pictures of home covered in 24"

Not sure how to do the embedded post thing but mine is somehow worse:

I don't understand the comments about the ENSO state for a system within 72 hours. The ENSO is helpful for long-range guesstimating, not short-term anything. Is it less likely to have a MECS in a Niña? Yes. If the correct ingredients are there for a MECS, and it happens to be in a Niña, will it still happen? Yes. ENSO only affects the odds of the players coming to the table. Once the players are on the table, the atmosphere cares not if it's Niña or Niño; a storm won't downtrend or uptrend solely because of the ENSO state.

My PM forecast and discussion for the DC area. Tried to highlight the uncertainty in this forecast.

Here's why its changing over to snow:

NAM is gonna push a lotttt of people to the cliff

Hey, I wishcasted this thing to shift north... it just went a little too far north

Because half an inch of ice is crippling, and even the GFS shows that it's more than likely to happen. Richmond should be buckling down.