Nomz
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Everything posted by Nomz
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on 10:1 as well
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riding the knifes edge man
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Even though the 00z GFS had some sleet (not much) it still absolutely dumped us. Some sleet is not game over for DC/NOVA/MD.
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Call it a HECS?
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NWS LWX posted an AFD about an hour ago. Too much to fit in one post but anyone who hasn't seen it should check it out.
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Oh yeah if the second wave is real we don't have a chance of catching any of it.
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Looks like a second wave of QPF coming behind our snow? Not really sure where thats coming but it really nails PA and NY.
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I'd be fine locking in the ICON as it is now. Probably at least 10 inches before we transition.
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Does this ICON have the hallowed new data? Or is it just ECMWF and American models
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Is there a rule of thumb for QPF falling as frozen rain to accumulated ice? Does it vary wildly with surface temps?
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Probably midnight Saturday night. Duration doesn't feel very hashed out right now.
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Kept my forecast for DC at 4-8 for tonight. Nowhere near enough model agreement to go one way or another.
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Thats actually... not that bad! I'll take it. Is it just American models that get recon data, or do Euro, UK, Canadian, etc., get it?
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GFS should talk some people off the ledge
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I still trust the straight as an arrow EURO AIFS... would trust it more if GFS fell in line though.
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Is there anything concrete I can pick out from raw recon data that would be good/bad or am I just playing the waiting game
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Also, we're still in the range that this could substantially shift in any direction. Could move 100 miles north, could move 100 miles south. We thought we were sitting pretty yesterday, but the mix line moved north 150 miles. Not a guarantee that it will keep moving north, stop, or windshield wiper back south.
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Might be cope, might not. I'd bet on the AIFS if I was forced to. Has been stupidly consistent since like Monday.
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... gotta sniff the mix
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In maybe 24 hours there will be watches+ from probably mexico to NYC
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It was too good to share. Sad!
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This is all sorts of fucked, doesn't make much sense. I would love the GFS operational outcome but it also doesn't really make sense. Mentally throwing out the GFS fam 12z suite.
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I'll settle for the bullseye up here in DC, lol
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Good morning. Kept my forecast for DC at 4-8+ for now. Probably gonna revise up to 6-10 if the 12z suite doesn’t move much.
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Can I just sign on the dotted line already
