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Nomz

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Everything posted by Nomz

  1. Nomz
    GFS sticks to its guns basically. Still not believing it.
  2. Nomz
    ... if we want to go there, an extra .5-1C since the 1990s probably is impacting this storm. Imagine if the 0C contour was where the 1C contour was and so on. When you're riding the knife-edge like we are, it matters.
  3. Nomz
    Probably a bad sign that I'm following this thread again...
  4. Nomz
    ENSO patterns seem kinda useless at such short range. They give you an idea of what will happen months out, but all that matters in the moment is what's actually happening.
  5. Nomz
    Sleet falls at around 3:1 right? Using Euro's QPF of 1.4 and conservatively guessing 1/2 of that to fall as snow, 1/2 as sleet; 0.7*10+.7*3 = 9.1 inches total accumulation. I'll take that as a baseline any day.
  6. Nomz
    ... it is sickening that PA/NYC/SNE are robbing us though
  7. Nomz
    If you told me a week ago we'd get 8 inches in DC, I'd be happy. So I'm happy.
  8. Nomz
    Apple weather is still showing 20-25 inches in DC… some people are going to be very disappointed.
  9. Nomz
    Yeah I'd say there's a pretty solid consensus that, no matter where the sleet line sets up, it sets up about parallel to the Blue Ridge
  10. Nomz
    Icon doesn’t really make sense to me with warmer 700mb temps due west of DC
  11. Nomz
    From my experience the NAM overdoes low-level response which leads to a stronger LLJ, warmer temps and (for severe weather season) loopier hodographs.
  12. Nomz
    As the LWX AFD mentioned, I'd use the 10:1 instead of the Kuchera for now. Even though most of the initial thump will have good ratios, towards the end, it'll get closer to the gray area, probably leading to somewhat wetter snow and smaller ratios.
  13. Nomz
    That's a lottttt of freezing rain. I'd wager at least half of that is sleet instead.
  14. Nomz
    Sounds like a hold. Assuming EPS and AI EPS are nominal, I think I'm gonna bump to 6-10"+ tomorrow morning.
  15. Nomz
    on 10:1 as well
  16. Nomz
    riding the knifes edge man
  17. Nomz
    Even though the 00z GFS had some sleet (not much) it still absolutely dumped us. Some sleet is not game over for DC/NOVA/MD.
  18. Nomz
    Call it a HECS?
  19. Nomz
    NWS LWX posted an AFD about an hour ago. Too much to fit in one post but anyone who hasn't seen it should check it out.
  20. Nomz
    Oh yeah if the second wave is real we don't have a chance of catching any of it.
  21. Nomz
    Looks like a second wave of QPF coming behind our snow? Not really sure where thats coming but it really nails PA and NY.
  22. Nomz
    I'd be fine locking in the ICON as it is now. Probably at least 10 inches before we transition.
  23. Nomz
    Does this ICON have the hallowed new data? Or is it just ECMWF and American models
  24. Nomz
    Is there a rule of thumb for QPF falling as frozen rain to accumulated ice? Does it vary wildly with surface temps?
  25. Nomz
    Probably midnight Saturday night. Duration doesn't feel very hashed out right now.
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