Nomz

Talk about huffing the copium

ICON was absolutely terrible at 00z, so anything's an improvement atp.

Just backread everything since last night. You guys can get really fucking insufferable over one off hour model suite.

All the rich folk with pivotal and wxbell subs are asleep lol

It's ok to say a model run is bad lmao

12z for comparison

Can someone post the GEFS member snowmaps?

I saw some 3" per hour rates over 6 hours. insanity.

Canadian has rates >2" on kuchera in central NC lmao

Which models qualify for folks? Just euro and gfs? Regionals inside reasonable range?

theyve started the thread

Boston wins again!

Yeah, ICON ends up much more positively tilted than say 18z AIFS, resulting in weaker cyclogenesis and less northward motion.

Looks like a really weak clipper that barely makes it over the mountains. Other models have it, but almost none of them have any appreciable precip on the lee side of the mountains.

Icon first to the plate, right?

The GFS will still be terrible.

LWX AFD mentions Wednesday as the go/no-go day

Wait Ji isn't a high schooler?

Just got back and ran through the 18z suite. In summary:

cry about it

Zoom classes for Georgetown tomorrow. More modelwatching for me.

Are "seasonal trends" a real thing? Rational part of me says the sample size is much too small; monkey pattern recognition part of me says they might exist.

There goes the GFS

LWX AFD added a mention of the potential storm. KEY MESSAGE 3...The next round of winter weather is possible this weekend. A large scale, northern stream trough will dig south from the upper Great Lakes toward the central Appalachians this weekend. At the same time, a southern stream ejects from the Four Corners toward the Gulf states. As these systems phase along the Eastern Seaboard, there is good agreement that an area of low pressure develops along or near the coast. The location of the phasing will determine how close to the coast the low is. The long range models are painting a typical Miller A type Nor`easter that could bring wintry precipitation along some of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Cold air won't be an issue with an Arctic airmass leading up to the weekend (highs in the teens to low 20s Fri/Sat) and a reinforcing high building over southern Quebec/Ontario on Sunday. It is important to note that model uncertainty for any given solution is very high at 5-6 days out, but the ensemble guidance does hint at the possibility of some snow in the area this weekend. The 12Z European, GFS, and Canadian all have around a 20-30pct chance for 3" of snow east of the Blue Ridge. The NBM speak best to the wide range of possibilities for this system, with the 13Z run having a 20-30pct chance for 6" of snow, around 20pct chance for 12", around 15pct chance for 18", and around 5pct chance for 24". Expect model guidance to bounce around significantly over the next few days before settling on a solution by the end of this week. By Wednesday the regional models will have some output that goes into the weekend. For now, take note of this potential threat and continue to monitor for updates as the week progresses.

Is Norfolk in our "CWA"? How far south do we go?