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Nomz

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Everything posted by Nomz

  1. Nomz
    Meanwhile I’m having to argue with people who expect 1+ because Apple Weather is the worst app ever created. It feels like a psyop to destroy trust in meteorology.
  2. Nomz
    However, I did see someone who was way in over their head take the h288 GFS from 12z yesterday verbatim (the one that showed like 40" in DC) so maybe we're not ready for that
  3. Nomz
    I had the same question and didn't get any answers. I don't think a single model has been close to 24" since Tuesday. I think I could chatGPT an app that produces better precip forecasts than apple weather.
  4. Nomz
    Went from this on Wednesday To this today (DC)
  5. Nomz
    Totally meaningless, but it has been depressing to watch the Saturday and Sunday night low temps creep up like 3 degrees.
  6. Nomz
    Like I said, the “Expected Total: Official NWS Forecast” map is 100% computer generated. I think it runs every 10 min, iirc it was :02, :12 up in NWS BOX.
  7. Nomz
    For sure the 00z suite was a small win, but people are really searching for a huge shift south to recover all our losses. It’s like gambling to cover loses.
  8. Nomz
    The more agressive map is the one in the “Local Winter Key Messages” while the other one is the autogenerated “Day 0-3 Snow and Range of Possibilities.” Usually the Key Messages one is more conservative and more accurate though, so I’m not sure what’s going on.
  9. Nomz
    Boston also salts heavily, although recently we've probably rationed our supply better (also there hasn't been much winter precip) since 2015 when we nearly ran out of salt and sand. If you've ever driven up to where 95 meets 128, you'll see one of the massive salt warehouses.
  10. Nomz
    Never ever doubted the euro... lol
  11. Nomz
    Huge win DC-RIC. Pulls a good chunk of VA out of the gutter.
  12. Nomz
    making hot chocalate. maybe this will summon the powder
  13. Nomz
    I know it's just the weenie in me talking, but what are the odds of a significant (3F+) error in the 700mb temperature? I have zero idea how accurate models are with just plain temps.
  14. Nomz
    Does anyone know what's causing these very odd mesoscale banding features on the 24h snowfall at h252? Is it just long range chaos?
  15. Nomz
    "Oh no, I have to see 30+ inches of snow!"
  16. Nomz
    I've played these games before...
  17. Nomz
    Sorry, if you're referring to me. Forgot this thread existed. Has there been any support on non GFS fam models for this one? Synoptically, we're pretty guaranteed to have cold air but idk anything else.
  18. Nomz
    Worth noting that the LWX AFD says "Snow to liquid ratios look to start around 15-18:1 with this system for the entirety of the area, while then trending down toward 7-10:1 Sunday morning into the afternoon"
  19. Nomz
    From LWX AFD
  20. Nomz
    GFS drops the nuke again at the end of the month. Not a forecast.
  21. Nomz
    It's salvageable because we only need models to be off by like 2C to get us back to a foot. Lot easier to get a 2C error than a .5 QPF error.
  22. Nomz
    Oh, I know I'll be better up there. Just very spiteful about it. Anyways, either GFS should be permanently ignored or it's about to go on the greatest model Linsanity run I've ever seen.
  23. Nomz
    GFS is a money run
  24. Nomz
    Some weenie cope for us if the GFS somehow holds
  25. Nomz
    But when we get to this point, all that stuff is baked into the models already. If they're presenting the same on models, they have the same chance of going north or south regardless of the temperature of the Pacific Ocean.
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