1015 PM Update...
* High Impact/Major Winter Storm with 1-2 feet of heavy wet snow
& power outages into Tue for northern ORH Hills/Berks
* Rain overnight in most lower elevations which will eventually
transition to some snow Tue but amounts/impacts uncertain
We have high confidence that a serious/major winter storm will
impact the northern Worcester Hills/Berks above 1000 feet in
elevation overnight into Tue. Firehose of rich moisture combined
with tremendous forcing/dynamics and thermal profiles are all
supportive of 1 to 2 feet of heavy wet snow & power outages
through Tuesday. This will be a very serious storm for these
locations.
Forecast confidence is significantly less to the south of the MA
Turnpike and all lower elevations. While some wet snow has been
mixed in with rain at times across the lower elevations of the
interior...ESE low level flow around 925 mb should result in
some warming in that layer overnight. So expect mainly rain in
this region through daybreak. This 925 mb warm layer begins to
erode Tue am and especially by afternoon. How quickly this
occurs and where exactly the dryslot and intense frontogenesis
sets up will be crucial if significant accumulations occur in
the lower elevations. This is quite complex too considering very
marginal boundary layer temps. Given the rapidly intensifying
low pressure system getting pulled back towards the coast along
with an intensifying closed 700 mb low will need to be watched.
If there was an area we were most concerned about in the lower
elevations for significant wet snow accumulations...its portions
of northeast MA especially just inland from the coast. We are
still evaluating the latest model data.