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TalcottWx

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Everything posted by TalcottWx

  1. 6z HRRR 10:1 weenie maps print out 20" at the Union/Sturbridge border.
  2. Some of the modeling goes gung ho and rotates this band, reorienting in an east-west direction. With heavy snow me to you underneath.
  3. Thanks, I think you do well. I think nearly all areas do. Dual-pol shows mixing pulling back SE.
  4. Down to 32F now in Simsbury, while Tolland is at 38F. That's wild.
  5. I had 1" of snow on the ground with heavy wet snow and massive flakes when I left home at 3 AM. 33F on weather station. Abruptly switched to rain once I arrived near 218 in Bloomfield. Very heavy rain all the way to Rocky Hill.
  6. Down to 33.7f and still mixing mostly wet snow. I think it's a good sign overall need to get some sleep. Up for work in no time. Hoping to wake up to the beginning of some fun stuff.
  7. Well, guess what. That was 18z. 0z is this one. Even snowier. My bad.
  8. That's the melting layer. Simply put, the further it grows outward, the further the mix line travels roughly. Weenies want it to contract. But again, a reminder: a final push of warm air was modeled tonight. Then it rapidly collapses.
  9. Don't think it lasts. I'd love if it did. A lot of modeling showed a bit of a warmer push before low stacks overnight. Not sure if that continued in latest runs.
  10. Top 5 spring storm for scoot if that day after tomorrow solution verified.
  11. Imagine if this backs in 1/8sm, 70mph winds from Massachusetts Bay
  12. 1015 PM Update... * High Impact/Major Winter Storm with 1-2 feet of heavy wet snow & power outages into Tue for northern ORH Hills/Berks * Rain overnight in most lower elevations which will eventually transition to some snow Tue but amounts/impacts uncertain We have high confidence that a serious/major winter storm will impact the northern Worcester Hills/Berks above 1000 feet in elevation overnight into Tue. Firehose of rich moisture combined with tremendous forcing/dynamics and thermal profiles are all supportive of 1 to 2 feet of heavy wet snow & power outages through Tuesday. This will be a very serious storm for these locations. Forecast confidence is significantly less to the south of the MA Turnpike and all lower elevations. While some wet snow has been mixed in with rain at times across the lower elevations of the interior...ESE low level flow around 925 mb should result in some warming in that layer overnight. So expect mainly rain in this region through daybreak. This 925 mb warm layer begins to erode Tue am and especially by afternoon. How quickly this occurs and where exactly the dryslot and intense frontogenesis sets up will be crucial if significant accumulations occur in the lower elevations. This is quite complex too considering very marginal boundary layer temps. Given the rapidly intensifying low pressure system getting pulled back towards the coast along with an intensifying closed 700 mb low will need to be watched. If there was an area we were most concerned about in the lower elevations for significant wet snow accumulations...its portions of northeast MA especially just inland from the coast. We are still evaluating the latest model data.
  13. Lamont just issues tractor-trailer bans. If you're a mobile weenie, get off the roads.
  14. Trying to flip to snow. LOL. Doug flutie, back to pass!
  15. Oh lord. Giant white flakes falling now. Hold me. 35/34.
  16. Cycle between dual Pol loop and Reflectivity. You will get a good visual of bright banding. Reflectivity will mimic the melting layer on the beam
  17. Seeing that rain snow line retreat south a bit on dual Pol.
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