wthrmn654

Waiting for gfs to hurry up and run is giving me grey hairs

Gale watches are already up lol

Was just talking to nws met, sounds like there talking a cautious approach. Watches from past experience,imo, we're always issued area wide at the same time roughly.. to see them doing things, more randomly? Versus watches for coastal flooding all areas that would likely see it is deft unusual especially with such a spread in models would seem more prudent to be safer then sorry? End rant

What blows my mind is how nws weather offices don't really seem to like to work either each other sometimes? Example, 430 pm Boston wind probability image shows eastern Long Island at 60%or better chance setting 40 or higher gusts. And places east. But Upton says likely stay below even advisory level...

If the gfs comes west, Upton will need to change a lot of things but watch everything shift east then near the end. It never ends

Icon looks about same maybe a little west Rgem looks better even. Nams are west.

Nws is really down playing this heavily it would seem, it would appear they favor the gfs.. there even thinking nbm precip amounts are to high... interesting Isn't there a saying when Upton isn't in, we get hit. Kept with NBM POPS for the most part, but feel that they may be a little too high during Friday through Saturday afternoon. Rain chances begin Friday morning, and for mainly east of the city, rain is likely Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. For the the city and points west, rain chances are mostly below 50% through the event, but go above it Saturday afternoon and night. Still thinking that rainfall flooding impacts are little to none - just low chance for flooding across far eastern zones, and probably limited to minor. QPF forecast combined with FFG values wouldn`t support flash flooding. If models trend west with the storm track, then western zones could have a chance of minor flooding. As for winds, anticipating gusts to remain below advisory thresholds, but it could come close across eastern LI and SE CT late day Friday through Saturday morning.

High wind watch up for Rhode Island shoreline... For what is worth 12k Nam is way west, waiting for 3k to finish

Coastal flood watches and advisory have started

The trend for the eps is a tighter and tighter cluster each run it looks like..

They did good with sandy imo

I'm pretty sure there going the middle ground based on what I've heard/ watched

Jma is west of 00z lmao yeah I'm going put the phone down and do some yard work with all this variability, no point in wasting brain cells yet when models are all over the place still

Eastern areas kinda look like more precip though but hard to tell.

Comparing the 00z to 12zgefs, looking at total precip is nearly identical all the way to NYC from the image I can see not fully zoomed in..

But it also means when the real stuff happens everyone's already going be that much more annoyed with each other

Exactly, sad to say but I kinda wish models were less i guess advanced like they were several years ago versus what they are now.... seems to me to many changes these days right up to game time.

So many moving parts, jeez

Do you guys know there's a storm threaded for the noreaster?? Asking for a friend

I mean here is the 6z eps and gefs at hour 90 for both they both look, to my eyes heavier on the western side of things track wise. One of these models is going be more right just who is still unknown. It's 00z Sunday but still just an example

This has and will likely always be a eastern Nassau County all of Suffolk County storm rain wise, with region wide erosion and coastal flooding with some wind for everyone else.

Euro was west. Precip is up at 6z... Tony

And just when you thought gfs was coming west like last run it goes back east

Let's see what the gfs says now....

18z euro is such a slow storm jeez