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AirNelson39

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Everything posted by AirNelson39

  1. AirNelson39
    Looks like this thing has went from 2” QPF on all models for 7 straight days to 0.2”. This has absolute bust written all over it. The long range models have proven to be pure trash until 12 hours out.
  2. AirNelson39
    Looks like we have major differences between amounts on RAP and NAM compared to HRRR for the Piedmont of NC. Anyone have thoughts on which typically performs better in this scenario?
  3. AirNelson39
    Wow, that might even be less precip than the NAM showed for the triangle.
  4. AirNelson39
    24.3F -0.7 dew point SE Raleigh
  5. AirNelson39
    Honestly I’d favor the nam, hard to go against it at this range and with its consistency. Starting to think Raleigh area dodges the bullet on a major storm.
  6. AirNelson39
    After hitting 32 at 10pm we have risen to 39 in the last hour.
  7. AirNelson39
    34/31 here between Garner and Clayton
  8. AirNelson39
    It’s just so far off what everything else is showing for central NC, I really don’t get it. Like 0 freezing rain for places all other models show an inch or more.
  9. AirNelson39
    Models tonight
  10. AirNelson39
    Lessons?? What lessons?! Can’t wait for my 2’ next weekend!
  11. AirNelson39
    The general public also lumps you guys with the clown Facebook pages sharing the biggest snow maps from every model run 7 days out. There are so many “weather” pages it’s not even funny and they all take away from the real guys trying to do their best with what they have.
  12. AirNelson39
    All the models can pound sand. Worthless
  13. AirNelson39
    I’m here for whatever winter weather the good lord brings. I’ve got the generator, large battery banks and Starlink ready to rock n roll. Any snow will just be icing…uh snow on the cake. [emoji3]
  14. AirNelson39
    We’ve seen this same story time and time again. If you’re in the bullseye 5 days out it rarely ends well. I don’t know why we can’t get winter forecasting in that day range. With that said, too many times we’ve cliff dived at this same range only to have it shift much closer to the bullseye. I remember the cliff diving for the Christmas storm of 2010.
  15. AirNelson39
    Time is still on our side (NC snow weenies). I’ve seen it too many times with these early trends 4+ days out only to work its way back in the other direction considerably. I think we see something between what the 18z euro showed and what the 18z gfs showed.
  16. AirNelson39
    Anything is possible at this range. Certainly uncomfortable being in or close to a sweet spot at this point. We will see “trends” and some will over analyze those trends.
  17. AirNelson39
    At this range I really do hate being close to the bullseye just seeing how many times it’s burned us in the past. Even with that said though I would expect seeing some runs that will have major changes. Don’t let your emotions ride on one days runs. Trends will go both directions at this point.
  18. AirNelson39
    Also radar looks pretty dang good for the triangle area and points East.
  19. AirNelson39
    Just drove from Selma up to Flowers (east of Clayton) and main roads are starting to turn white. Saw 3 wrecks in a couple mile stretch on Buffalo Rd and Hwy 42. Was briefly sleet but quickly changed back to all snow.
  20. AirNelson39
    Been a consistent light to sometimes moderate snow just East of Clayton, NC last couple hours.
  21. AirNelson39
    Consistent light snow here in Clayton, NC last couple hours.
  22. AirNelson39
    No reason these small trends can’t continue on other models. Still PLENTY of time for small ticks each run.
  23. AirNelson39
    Yep, I’ve been keeping an eye on it since it broke off that heavy band south of Florence. Looks like it will be the last of it for Johnston and Wake
  24. AirNelson39
    21 degrees and moderate to heavy snow in eastern NC is such a nice treat. Not very often we get those conditions after 20+ hours below freezing with another 36+ hours below freezing.
  25. AirNelson39
    I think if he made a snow model that was always accurate and true they’d still whine and complain. Nothing wrong with America first, unless it’s orange man bad doing it. Smfh
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