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AirNelson39

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Everything posted by AirNelson39

  1. AirNelson39
    In Granite Falls, NC 38.5 29.4 dew point Winds gusting to 10mph out of the east Dew point has been pretty steady since about 3pm
  2. AirNelson39
    Brad P just put out his final call maps. Really backed off totals for foothills. 2-4” for most of the foothills and 4-6” for immediate escarpment. I’m hoping latest GFS busts his forecast. Major major let down if the foothills do indeed get 2-4”
  3. AirNelson39
    With the exception of the eastern escarpment the gfs has really backed off totals for western Piedmont and foothills. Hoping the icon can score a coup. Places like hickory are being modeled as 3-6” on most models now except the icon which is showing 12+. Pretty major difference. A storm of this size and track and western half of the state can only eek out 1” of qpf on this run??
  4. AirNelson39
    Seems like all of the models are really backing off totals for far western Piedmont and the foothills of NC. We’ve gone from 2” of liquid down to just over 1”. Not a good trend. Would have thought with a track like that we would have some much higher totals.
  5. AirNelson39
    I knew it would likely happen but I’m still amazed how models really struggle in that ~ 5 day range. Everyone was cliff diving as each run went further and further away from the previous good runs for several days. I’ve noticed with a lot of our bigger storms over the years the 7+ day model runs are actually pretty dang good at picking up everything. Then around day 5 they really struggle with all aspects of the storm or lose the storm and it’s looking like this is again the case. We’ve gradually trended better and better since that day 5 melt down. The one I’ll never forget and the most vivid instance of this for me was the Christmas 2010 storm. Played out the same way. Moral of the story, don’t throw your towels in on day 4-5.
  6. AirNelson39
    I wouldn’t get too concerned at this range. Can’t tell you how many times over the last 10+ years a storm would “go missing” at this 5 day range whether it “lose” the storm altogether or have it modeled a good ways off from what it ends up being. No reason for anyone in central/eastern NC, SC, GA to throw in the towel at this point.
  7. AirNelson39
    Hmm, it works when I click it. Go to first gallery “First Snow 2022” www.nelsonaerialpros.smugmug.com
  8. AirNelson39
    Got some nice shots today! Check them out at the online gallery
  9. AirNelson39
    Seeing the progression of this storm as I went up 321 this morning was incredible. In 5 miles went from zero snow in the ground to 4-6”+ on the roads and white out conditions in Blowing Rock. Just shy of 3” of rain back in Granite Falls and bottomed out at 34.9 degrees at 9am. What a storm.
  10. AirNelson39
    And just like that traffic is at a complete stand still on 321 before Blowing Rock
  11. AirNelson39
    Roads turned to instant slush the moment I hit the state trooper gas station at the bottom of 321. Getting worse by the mile!
  12. AirNelson39
    Leaving Granite Falls now, heading up to Boone and surrounding areas to hopefully get some snow shots. We’ve had 2.6” of rain since midnight! On 321 in granite and wet flakes are starting to mix in with the heavy rain
  13. AirNelson39
    The fat lady has sung. After one of the worst winters I’ve been apart of in the hickory area I’m glad to see it go. Bring on a true spring with nice cool temps with good periods of dry weather like we have coming up.
  14. AirNelson39
    How does the tempest handle the ice build up? Get any errors or weird readings for haptic rain sensor or wind readings?
  15. AirNelson39
    I want the beauty of a big ice storm and the ability to use the dang generator. I just want some dang winter weather and I don’t care if it’s .75” of ZR
  16. AirNelson39
    Finished with .86” of 32.5 degree rain. There were models showing a lee side min right before the start of the event. Unreal.
  17. AirNelson39
    *Only use models that show the least amount of frozen precipitation inside of 4 hours.
  18. AirNelson39
    Put a fork in this one for the foothills. Up to 32.9 and going between heavy and very heavy returns already over .4”
  19. AirNelson39
    32.4 and heavy rain is the ultimate middle finger. “But the models underestimate the cad” “it’ll be colder than forecasted” “just cut the zr maps in half and it’s still major”. Well it’s not the 90’s or early 2000’s anymore. We don’t win border line events in the foothills or NW Piedmont anymore. The ZR maps need a complete overhaul on all the models. The long term weather cycle for this area and winter weather is becoming an absolute joke.
  20. AirNelson39
    This is our lowest temp of the event.
  21. AirNelson39
    Nothing like heavy rain and 32.4 degrees. What a joke.
  22. AirNelson39
    So it seems really doesn’t matter at the end of the day when the skies are clear and you get radiational cooling to start the night when clouds just instantly add 5 degrees. Might as well had the clouds move in whenever. No? 38.5/26.2 Winds 3-5 MPH ENE
  23. AirNelson39
    Wow, up to 37.8/26.7 3 miles NE of HKY, this isn’t looking good for ice. I smell another major bust.
  24. AirNelson39
    Temp continues to rise, now 36.1/26 3 miles NE of HKY airport.
  25. AirNelson39
    Back up to 35.2/26.1 temps are on a kiddie roller coaster tonight lol
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