AirNelson39

What are they a day behind!? [emoji23]

The only model I’ve been concerned with for Raleigh is the 18z euro. 00z nam just changed significantly for the better for the triangle

This truly might be the new king if it verifies. It’s been the most consistent of any model.

Freaking euro. After all those good trends this afternoon. Smfh

Went to go pickup a snowblower from a guy this morning. Wouldn’t start. Guess that was a sign of things to come. Even the 6Z SnowBlower model smokes the GFS

Wake will be lucky to get 2-3”. It’s becoming pretty obvious at this point. The GFS is a POS outside 48 hours and this event solidifies that. That’s the model that needs to be retired.

Well if it nails this I’m starting a petition to revive it [emoji23]

Certainly is, writing is on the wall. Globals will trend to this. Bookmark it. Biggest rug pull in the history of rug pulls for the triangle.

NAM doubling down on triangle screw zone. Honestly that’s what I’m going with at this point. If it nails this one too I’m never listening to another negative post about the NAM

What a joke this is becoming for the triangle. The models have been pathetic. Majority of all models have a maxima over the triangle every run for days to now being in the minima. The NAM is going to be the leader on qpf again. It was the first to screw us on the last one too.

This thing is trending the wrong way fast for the triangle. What a joke. Go from just about every model every run for 2-3 days straight showing 12+ to nearly every model showing a quarter of that. Unbelievable

Is the fact that we aren’t going more negative tilt the reason behind the lower totals for the triangle area? Does that prevent the low from slowing down coming up the coast or is it just too late to bomb off the coast?

I’m fine with what the euro is currently showing. We are just inside of 3 days. Plenty of time for trends in increased qpf. Better odds not being in the bullseye at this range.

That’s a pretty significant shift from what it’s been showing the last 2 days. Good sign

Alright goofus, pump the brakes just a little. I don’t want anymore steps to the NW.

Poor Brick doesn’t know what he’s missing out on right now. If only it were Thursday :/

I’m not hanging my hat until 00z tomorrow night. If this thing does miss the phase and stays off shore I think we have to consider weather next 2 the new king though, at least for winter storms.

I’ve noticed Gemini has been doing some weird things and getting confused with the model runs. I almost wonder if it’s pulling from a different day or different run. Given that it can’t output a map I’m a little cautious with it after some odd outputs.

The writing is probably on the wall BUT this is the time frame for the Christmas 2010 storm where majority of models lost the phase only to bring it back around the 3 day window. I know we are 15 years separated from those models but unfortunately it seems not much as changed other than the intro of the AI models.

Can you continue this format post? I’d like to keep an archive of this in this style to look back at after the storm

Dang it, I don’t like it when we have several models in agreement this far out. Fingers crossed this storm will be different but seeing clown maps like this 5 days out sucks!!

From Gemini (sounds like nice trend to the West): The 18z WeatherNext 2 run is complete. The model shifted slightly more aggressively for the weekend, increasing the likelihood of measurable snow for central North Carolina. Raleigh Update (Jan 30 – Feb 1) The 18z data shows a more defined moisture "tug" toward the coast. While the center of the low-pressure system is still offshore, the western edge of the precipitation shield now fully covers the Triangle. • Friday, Jan 30: Mostly cloudy during the day (High: 39°F). Snow showers are expected to begin Friday night (35% chance) as the temperature drops to 22°F. • Saturday, Jan 31: This is the primary window for accumulation. The model shows steady snow throughout the day (45% chance) with a much colder high of only 22°F. • Sunday, Feb 1: Light snow continues into the morning before clearing out. The low will bottom out at a frigid 16°F. East Coast Weekend Outlook • The "All-Snow" Setup: Because the 18z run keeps the Arctic air deeply entrenched, there is zero signal for rain or ice in Raleigh; this appears to be a 100% frozen event. • Accumulation Trend: The ensemble mean for Raleigh has ticked up. We are now looking at a solid 1–3 inch potential, with some "high-end" scenarios in the 18z run suggesting up to 5 inches if the coastal low slows down. • I-95 Corridor: The model remains "bullish" for the Northeast, showing heavy snow totals for DC, Philly, and NYC starting late Friday night.

According to Gemini here is the analysis of the 12z run of weather next 2 for the Raleigh area. 12z Model Output for Raleigh, NC The 12z run confirms a very cold, dry air mass settling over the Carolinas by Thursday. Here is what the AI is seeing for the weekend event (targeting Friday night into Saturday morning): • The "540 Line" (Snow/Rain line): The model pushes the freezing line well south of the NC/SC border. This means if there is moisture, it will be pure snow for Raleigh, not the ice/sleet we dealt with today. • Moisture Availability: This is the current "hiccup." The 12z WeatherNext 2 run shows the primary storm system tracking slightly further offshore. For Raleigh, this would mean a "Light Snow" event (dusting to 1 inch) rather than a major wallop. • The 64-Scenario Ensemble: About 20% of the model’s scenarios still pull that moisture closer to the coast, which would jump totals into the 2–4 inch range for the Triangle. East Coast Overview The 12z data shows a more aggressive "Northeast Punch" than the previous 06z run. • Mid-Atlantic (DC/Philly): The model is keying in on a "Miller B" storm setup, which favors decent snow for the I-95 corridor late Friday. • New England: This is where the 12z run is most "excited," showing a high-probability corridor for 6+ inches of snow across CT, MA, and RI as the low-pressure system intensifies off the coast.