bncho
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Everything posted by bncho
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At least January isn't entirely screwed. Ensemble snow means have been quite high.
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we don't yell and curse at you because you're negative, we yell and curse at you because you're annoying. good night to you as well
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Has that really been the case lately?
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It's a nothing burger. Peace out, y'all. I'll wait until tomorrow evening but I think this one might be dead.
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trof aint digging at all
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January 16th, the ULL that could?
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Of course. As our climate gets warmer it'll pave the way for more juiced systems. There will likely be a winter storm that far exceeds those types of storms in the next 15 years. After that, though, the climate will warm so much that any juiced up event will have the heaviest precipitation be rain, rather than snow. Then, no matter how juiced up the system is, we will not get those big winter storms, and would need an intense cold push to time up with a wave for 3-5", max 6-12".
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If climate change keeps accelerating, DC winters will start to look like winters in Columbia, SC. IMO we might have one more snowy period when the next +PDO phase occurs—just because of the warmer waters (and hence increased precip) it'll probably break tons of records, maybe there'll be a 3' historic blizzard. Afterwards, though, around ~2040, I dunno, man.
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There’s also 23-24 and 97-98 lol
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Sorry. Reflecting on it now, my suggestion was probably too polarizing, and you’re right—it wouldn’t make people happy.
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Trying to make an analog set for next year, 14-15, 02-03, and 86-87 are in it.
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I wish we had the 2017 Euro. Good old reliable
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Okay euro is running. Good luck to us
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there should be a thread where only meteorologists and pro forecasters can post, view only for everybody else
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I’m probably adding fuel to the fire lol. I’m such a bad poster lolol probably should stop posting for a while and fix myself up. Focus on school instead
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What message are you trying to convey?
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Would agree that 2026-27 looks promising. To maximize our chances we would need to achieve a mod-strong Modoki Nino or a weak-mod east based Nino (i don’t think we’ll get a west based Nino). Would say that if either of these outcomes occur the PDO should be at least neutral, further improving our chances. However, that is a season that needs to be a blockbuster. If we don’t achieve 25-40”+ then I’m not sure how the Mid-Atlantic scores.
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Late-Jan into early-Feb could have more of a Nino response with MJO 8, -AO, and those WWBs. Winter isn’t over yet IMO.
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shut up ji. At least wait for the euro
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Maybe 18z too positively tilted?
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no snow for most on the gfs I think
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Well guys the GFS, a slightly better model than the ICON, is running. Hopefully it shows 18-39” of snow. Jk, just want a hold or a change in a positive direction
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Chuck shouldn’t be talking about the NAM until 0z
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@Ji
