bncho
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Everything posted by bncho
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Nothing like waking up in the morning to -10F in the DMV
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Ji won't be happy with mixing. Sound the alarms and prepare.
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2-4" of sleet and 8-12" of fluffy snow for DC. It would definitely be the storm of the decade.
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with the flip back to 12" of fluffy snow, I would sign for the GFS right now.
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GFS filps back to snow for the cities.
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IN TWENTY-FOUR HOURS LMFAO
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It would be one hell of a cool storm.
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GFS is an absolute sleet fest. It would be a fun storm, just not the one we want.
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January 6th 2025 storm trended 200 miles south in 7 days, and it's the GFS
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You know what model will show it? The GFS. Then it'll keep showing it until the Euro shows it. But the JV CMC and UKIE and ICON won't show it. Then the GFS trends away, then the Euro, and we get nothing. OR The JV models will show it, and we get a 12+" blizzard.
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reverse march 2001 trends will happen on the NAM, because it's the NAM
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It's not Nino = cold and snowy and Nina = warm and dry. If that were the case seasonal forecasts would be easy.
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Now THAT is a cold and dry pattern.
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so much for my analysis, apparently it's cold and dry and I suck. talk to the meteorologists and the good posters if you want real analysis.
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Now THAT is a really good pattern.
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If a Nino happens next year it would be more likely to couple with the atmosphere, especially with it being at least moderate
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juiced up system at that golden timeframe of Jan 28 on the GFS, but it cuts. Nice to see a big storm consistently show up at that timeframe, though.
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That’s both a bad thing and a good thing IMO. On one hand it says that there’s not much of a chance, but on the other it says there’s still some significant potential with this system. Definitely still needs to be watched.
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I've been consistently saying that the tropical forcing in MJO 8-1-2 and death of La Nina will help with a more canonical Nino response into February and March.
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That's a massive signal considering it's 330 hours out.
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it takes one to know one
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this is why he was confused, guys.
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-EPO/+PNA actually leans dry, but it’s also a big dog pattern with that high-latitude blocking. With those AN precip anomalies in our region and the TN valley, I would be more inclined to think Jan 25-Feb 10 has big dog potential rather than cold and dry potential.
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He's definitely going to be one of the main forces that keep this place high-quality and relevant, no doubt about that. Ji is just a troll. But I guess the argument could be made that he makes AmWX, well, AmWX.
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Kick him out of the forum
