bncho

Would've loved to see more of the 0z Euro... but it almost alludes to what BAM said regarding the big storm for the first week of January.

0z Euro and GFS are advertising some ZR for our northern crew on 12/26-27. It has ticked south a lot over the last 24 hours... maybe they can tick again?

I would say he's fairly knowledgable, but he leans colder often. Definitely not weenie status though.

He also mentioned a lot about convections, but I don't know anything about that, so hopefully somebody more knowledgable can explain

New BAM WX video says we're back into winter by mid-January. Here were my main takeaways from this video: 1. Dec 29-31 will trend colder, like it has been for the past few days. 2. He thinks there'll be a big storm favoring NE for the first week of January; his top analogs like 1996 and 2000 3. Somewhere between the end of Dec and the start of Jan, he thinks that WWBs will happen, causing: - the death of La Nina - -EPO by early Jan, but no +PNA - MJO to move very quickly and finally get unstuck thru phases 2, 3, 4, etc., finally getting back into 7 by around Jan 15 (just in time for prime climo) 4. He likes the fact that the PV is on our side of the hemisphere, and he thinks it'll stay there 5. The models are not seeing the cold in the long-range TL;DR: BAM WX believes that there will be a prolonged period of cold and stormy weather from Jan 15 to Feb 1. The first two weeks of January will likely offer shots of cold, but with relaxations in between. Edit: he also mentions a lot about convections in the east asian mountains or something like that, but I have no idea what any of it meant so hopefully somebody more knowledgable can explain

EPS trend for 12/29 @ 12z. Look at that trend towards colder weather. And some are already cancelling winter.

Jan 15 to Feb 15 honestly looks like a decent period IMO

One of the best posts I've ever seen on the entire forum from one of the best posters on this entire forum. Kudos to you. Winter still has a chance.

What exactly Webb is seeing that screams to him "ugliest Jan/Feb he's seen in a long time" I'm not sure. He cites that there'll be strong +AO/+NAO tendencies but I doubt that'll be the case because I'm not sure how that domination throughout the whole winter would happen. Maybe there are a few +NAO periods but otherwise I wouldn't put much stock in what he says. There's a decent -EPO signal trying to develop for mid-January and the overall pacific looks to become better then as well

I was actually pretty damn close--if the GFS ran up to hour 440.

At the end of each of their runs, the 0z GFS will drop a 946 tucked low that brings 72” of snow to the DMV while the 0z Euro drops 97 degree weather.

shortwave was in a decent spot but there's this weird blue blob under the NAO which kinda screws up things

12z GFS is a valiant attempt but it's too warm

There's a panic room thread too!

Went from the highest of highs two days ago to the lowest of lows today. Welcome to AmericanWX!

0z GFS is pretty nice

ENSO thread is fine lol

Why is this the case?

My take is that it isn't over until it's really over. Until mid-late January last year we thought February would be a torch... it ended up being around average and we got that 4-8" snow event. Unfortunately there was some heartbreak with the late-February phantom but it still could be argued that was our best pattern of the whole winter--in the month that we thought would torch.

Liking the trends I saw. As that super -NAO starts to trend more west-based it kinda moves the central-US ridge west because the -NAO amplifies the eastern trough, which inherently helps us trend towards a more positive PNA (trending from negative towards neutrality). A 6z GFS kind of scenario is certainly possible--that storm actually tries to cut N/NE-ward--but the -NAO is just so strong that it gets shunted south giving US some wintry weather. edit: NW is wrong, meant NE

I had a mental breakdown trying to understand the 0z Euro.

pacific is just more powerful than the atlantic

12/29-30 is probably our best chance, but it's still a long shot. OPs have been showing ways we can score for a decent amount of time and ensembles have a decent signal, but we're kinda grasping on straws here lol. EPS shows that kind of ugly central-US ridge, but it also shows an pretty strong east-based -NAO. Even though it's a -NAO, it's an east-based -NAO, so while it'll help with a torch it's not going to do much otherwise IMO. h5 flow would suggest WAA aloft but at least it's somewhat cold at the surface so snow changing to mix or rain has a decent chance. More of a conditional setup where timing is absolutely key, so wouldn't hold too much hope unless the -PNA/+EPO trends towards neutrality and/or that NAO block trends more west. We still have time though, 288 hours is more than enough time for those things to happen.