bncho

its August 12 and we’re making our own digital snow we are actually going crazy

@40/70 Benchmark@BlizzardWx @bluewave @Ephesians2 Thanks for the informative responses! Your points all make sense and continue to help me learn.

Not to be a downer or anything but is it possible/likely that the models that show the favorable Feb/Mar pattern are just falling back on what a normal El Niño would generally do? This is not a normal El Niño. I think @bluewave has touched on this in seasons past about how seasonal models are susceptible to this? Just worried for something like Feb 2024 to happen.

Wait Ji has a Facebook with 115K followers? Wtf

He does this shit every year lol its the same forecast every single year—cold for the east with over average snowfall and warm for the west with below average snowfall i wouldnt trust a thing he says

weenie euro snowfall maps thru Feb 2027 feast or famine

Thoughts on a PDO flip to positive with the Super Nino?

From what I know about Ninos it’s not common for there to be a -NAO and SER linkage in them. Plus what @CAPE mentioned is very true—not really a -NAO signal as it’s smoothed out over 3 months.

Late February twice in a row! February 20, 2025 (the more infamous one) and February 22, 2026.

Exactly. Nina's are annoying. So damn dry. Give me the moisture and I'll roll the dice.

My parents don’t even remember that winter.

beautiful sunset tonight

hot hot hot hot hot

Please correct me if I’m wrong but didn’t 15-16 have a pretty long period of blocking from mid-January into February? And the very warm December skewed the winter temperature?

Cool May is a good May. Keep it in the low 70s.

Give me the precip and I will roll the dice

Happy April Fools.

McLean, VA Winter Rating: B Reasoning: McLean got exceptionally lucky with a local jackzone on multiple occasions this winter, allowing me to nickel and dime to climo. The snow/sleetfall from late-January stayed for a long, long time due to the severe cold in late-Jan to early-Feb, really helping this winter's case. There were lots of late nights just to see potential wasted for the DMV. March 12th's suprise snow saved this from being a B-.

wow

euro ai, only 8 days out. what could go wrong

lol I just woke up from a nap. Feeling kinda under the weather right now. last year I didn’t do any severe weather at all but I made a promise to myself to try and learn about it this year, so you likely see me a lot more active

I’m so ready for the 3” of wet snow that will cover the remains of my house after it gets hit by a tornado

@Stormchaserchuck1 do El Nino's normally form east-based and propogate west? Or this is just me on weenie hopium?

McLEAN WINTER 2025-26 SNOWFALL: 19.9" Average: 19.9" (100%) November: T 11/12: T | Stayed up late hoping for something more substantial, but there were still some light flurries. 11/30: T | Morning snow/sleet mix changed to rain. December: 3.7" 12/5-6: 2.2" | The return of the mythical December 5th snowstorm. It brought extreme cold for early December, with my high of 29. Included a nice little round two starting at 10 PM, not finishing until around 1 AM. R1: 1.9", R2: 0.3" 12/11: T | Scattered flurries in the morning. 12/14: 1.5" | A busted forecast (from 2-4"). 0.25" QPF fell as 1.5"—awful ratios. January: 9.2" 1/1: 0.1" | An early morning snow squall with strong winds. 1/17: 0.1" | A morning burst of snow accumulated to a dusting. 1/18: T | Three hours of afternoon flurries translated to a trace. The mulch was slightly whitened, though. 1/24-25: 9.0" | EDIT (2/22/26): revised from 10.2" down to 9". Reanalysis showed 0.6" QPF falling as snow and 1.8" QPF falling as sleet. This equates to 5.4" of snow at 9:1 ratios and 3.6" of sleet at 2:1 ratios, for a total of 9.0". February: 4.9" 2/6: 0.1" | A few hours of moderate snow gave a nice wintry scene for the area. It was a nice refresher for the snowpack. 2/12: T | Some morning flurries. 2/22-23: 4.8" | Rain to potent snowstorm. Warm temperatures at onset lead to a decrease in accumulations. March: 2.1" 3/2: 0.6" | It was a nice and beautiful March snow. I didn't bother to measure, so I'm splitting the difference between DCA and IAD. 3/12: 1.5" | Some surprise anafrontal snow brought a heavy coating. Credit to @MN Transplant for the measurement. (SUBJECT TO CHANGE - waiting for final measurement from @MN Transplant.)