bncho
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Everything posted by bncho
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operational supports its ensemble, and temperatures were quite chilly (around freezing, even in dc), meaning that snow might stick lol!
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6z EPS (yes, this system is finally getting within the medium-range now), shows a total of 26 hits (at least flurries at one of the airports) out of 50 (52%), and lots of panels are still trying to snow on us! Very aggressive, but perhaps it's onto (or on) something?
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first call: BWI: 39.6" DCA: 27.8" IAD: 43.2" RIC: 15.9" ----- SBY: 17.1" a bunch of small to medium events with a big 8-16" that we've waited 10 years for
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when in doubt, go with the great Apple weather!
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Interesting indeed!
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thru Nov 13, 0z EPS shows a whopping 25 hits out of 50 (50%).
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thru November 13, 06z GEFS show 11 hits (at least flurries) out of 30 (37%). p30 looks cool as well.
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EPS snowfall panels.... 24 out of 50 (48%) give some part of the forum at least flurries thru November 14 (I count "some part of the forum" as flurries in at least one of the airports of RIC, BWI, IAD, and DCA). Maybe this thing does have a chance!
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Funnily enough, EPS has a not insignificant amount of members showing at least flurries. 9 out of 50 (18%) is NOT bad.
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I asked ChatGPT to pull up a list of 12+" snowstorms at ANY of the airports (DCA, BWI, IAD, RIC) from 1970 to now. Apparently there was a 1 in 4.3 chance that you'd see a 12"er in a given season during then. So we are due, but apparently it's not astronomically rare—right now we're 1.66 standard deviations away from the mean, meaning there's about a 5-10% chance of a drought this long happening. For example, look at 1983-93 or 1993-2003.
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something changed for me as well. it could still see the original "General Forecasting and Discussion" tab, but I couldn't see anything at all for the "Regional Weather Discussion" tab at all (on mobile), making it more difficult to access threads there.
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Happy Halloween!
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I had a stroke trying to read this until I saw his username
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I've seen lots of mentions about the TNH, and I'm not really familiar with that. Can somebody explain how it works, and how it will affect us for winter (e.g. -TNH vs +TNH)?
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0z CFS. Nice.
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imagine if this were snow
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95-96 ain't that bad. think we got above average snow that winter actually
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Was Winter 2024-2025 one of the Coldest Winters on Record for BWI
bncho replied to MDScienceTeacher's topic in Mid Atlantic
Was Winter 2024-2025 one of the Coldest Winters on Record for BWI? fuck no -
The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?
bncho replied to dailylurker's topic in Mid Atlantic
The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust? BUST lol -
McLean got down to 35. I had to head west down I-66, though, and some places reached 30. Beautiful fall foliage as well!
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temps were rapidly dropping as well
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finally this thread is active again with one of my favorite posters posting. regarding the discussion, though, we're poised for a colder November, right? Long range shows a decent pattern for cold.
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very good mean as well
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12z AIFS ensemble is a mess LOL
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Regarding the Oct 31 - Nov 3 system: 12z Euro Ensemble has lots of members give decent snow totals to the mountains, with a handful of members showing some first-of-the-season flakes for the lower elevation people. And don't ask me what panel 20 is doing--but SE wins again lol
