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bncho

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Everything posted by bncho

  1. bncho
    For Mitch and TSSN.
  2. bncho
    The EPO also has a stronger corrleation to temps in the Eastern US than the WPO. We would need a stronger -WPO to neutralize any effects an +EPO might have IMO.
  3. bncho
    snowfall accums are paltry even at the m/d line, but it's better
  4. bncho
    Everytime we are at a crossroads...
  5. bncho
    MECS/borderline HECS on the Euro AI. Subtract about 2-5" for anywhere that is DC and NW due to the 2/15 event.
  6. bncho
    @Heisy there's a stationary 980-990 bomb for your timeframe
  7. bncho
    Euro more amped, henceforth colder and norther
  8. bncho
    Are we back?
  9. bncho
    Euro AI is really good
  10. bncho
    The GFS was really close to something for the 24th, if NS had phased quicker it'd have turned neg tilt quicker and probably have been an HECS it also kinda looks like the Feb 2025 debacle, similar setup, same time of year, but i'd definitely run that look back
  11. bncho
    The GFS was really close to something for the 24th, if NS had phased quicker it'd have turned neg tilt way quicker and probably have been an HECS it also kinda looks like the Feb 2025 debacle, similar setup, same time of year, but i'd definitely run that look back
  12. bncho
    Make the sacrifice quick.
  13. bncho
    so the 850s were colder but the 925s are torching, no snow anywhere
  14. bncho
    Euro is a touch souther with the precip but it's colder than 18z at the upper levels. Snow maps incoming
  15. bncho
    oh yeah baby
  16. bncho
    0z GFS has the Feb 22-23 thing, it's a high end advisory event That timeframe could hold potential. Seems like CAPE's original storm will track too far north but will bring in some cold air for the follow up wave to ride the boundary. Pretty simple way to score around here. btw since i said all this it's now my storm and not Ji's storm even though his analysis is better.
  17. bncho
    AI GFS better, GFS worse
  18. bncho
    I like where that 540 line is
  19. bncho
    there's not 1hr QPF option on the GFS, but the 3hr QPF option does the job well enough
  20. bncho
    This is 10PM sunday, remember that 6h qpf includes the last 6 hours
  21. bncho
  22. bncho
    Euro AI and Euro are 1% worse, which translates to a small shift on the surface. Basically a hold.
  23. bncho
    -PNA isn't even "unfavorable" in a vacuum in Mid-February. Hell it could be argued that it's better. Perhaps the amplitude at which the -PNA is occuring is unfavorable... but all the other factors Ji posted about should counteract that.
  24. bncho
    Since it's mid-Feb, -PNA is fine! That should also lessen our worries about suppression!
  25. bncho
    See Ji's post in the CAPE thread. It's a decent read
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