bncho
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Everything posted by bncho
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You know what model will show it? The GFS. Then it'll keep showing it until the Euro shows it. But the JV CMC and UKIE and ICON won't show it. Then the GFS trends away, then the Euro, and we get nothing. OR The JV models will show it, and we get a 12+" blizzard.
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reverse march 2001 trends will happen on the NAM, because it's the NAM
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It's not Nino = cold and snowy and Nina = warm and dry. If that were the case seasonal forecasts would be easy.
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Now THAT is a cold and dry pattern.
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so much for my analysis, apparently it's cold and dry and I suck. talk to the meteorologists and the good posters if you want real analysis.
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Now THAT is a really good pattern.
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If a Nino happens next year it would be more likely to couple with the atmosphere, especially with it being at least moderate
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juiced up system at that golden timeframe of Jan 28 on the GFS, but it cuts. Nice to see a big storm consistently show up at that timeframe, though.
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That’s both a bad thing and a good thing IMO. On one hand it says that there’s not much of a chance, but on the other it says there’s still some significant potential with this system. Definitely still needs to be watched.
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I've been consistently saying that the tropical forcing in MJO 8-1-2 and death of La Nina will help with a more canonical Nino response into February and March.
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That's a massive signal considering it's 330 hours out.
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it takes one to know one
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this is why he was confused, guys.
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-EPO/+PNA actually leans dry, but it’s also a big dog pattern with that high-latitude blocking. With those AN precip anomalies in our region and the TN valley, I would be more inclined to think Jan 25-Feb 10 has big dog potential rather than cold and dry potential.
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He's definitely going to be one of the main forces that keep this place high-quality and relevant, no doubt about that. Ji is just a troll. But I guess the argument could be made that he makes AmWX, well, AmWX.
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Kick him out of the forum
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Mid-late January, 2022, I think it was too warm for most cities but interior NY and maybe even Boston got a lot of snow
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Just due to the seasonal trend, I would expect that -2 PNA to correct to around -1 to neutral.
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Dude you keep taking breaks but you help keep this place tolerable. You really gonna let Ji win?
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notice how you get more likes and less weenies when you post stuff like this? good job!
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I think next year will likely be a great year to test your theory.
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Late January IMO is a simpler setup. All we need is a wave to tap into the cold air and boom. It's also reassuring to see the AN precip anomalies over us and the TN valley; signals that the STJ should be more active.
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you're right, actually, h5 has been looking pretty damn good this winter (e.g. Jan 15 ULL) but those h5 looks aren't translating to the surface, where's it's often cold and dry.
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we're tracking rain/snow showers, even better
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lol its too bantery y'all. I agree with the doom and gloom and can kick and kick in the crotch but unless its weather related put it in panic thread or banter. thanks!
