bncho
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Everything posted by bncho
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Funnily enough, EPS has a not insignificant amount of members showing at least flurries. 9 out of 50 (18%) is NOT bad.
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I asked ChatGPT to pull up a list of 12+" snowstorms at ANY of the airports (DCA, BWI, IAD, RIC) from 1970 to now. Apparently there was a 1 in 4.3 chance that you'd see a 12"er in a given season during then. So we are due, but apparently it's not astronomically rare—right now we're 1.66 standard deviations away from the mean, meaning there's about a 5-10% chance of a drought this long happening. For example, look at 1983-93 or 1993-2003.
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something changed for me as well. it could still see the original "General Forecasting and Discussion" tab, but I couldn't see anything at all for the "Regional Weather Discussion" tab at all (on mobile), making it more difficult to access threads there.
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Happy Halloween!
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I had a stroke trying to read this until I saw his username
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I've seen lots of mentions about the TNH, and I'm not really familiar with that. Can somebody explain how it works, and how it will affect us for winter (e.g. -TNH vs +TNH)?
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0z CFS. Nice.
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imagine if this were snow
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95-96 ain't that bad. think we got above average snow that winter actually
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Was Winter 2024-2025 one of the Coldest Winters on Record for BWI
bncho replied to MDScienceTeacher's topic in Mid Atlantic
Was Winter 2024-2025 one of the Coldest Winters on Record for BWI? fuck no -
The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?
bncho replied to dailylurker's topic in Mid Atlantic
The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust? BUST lol -
McLean got down to 35. I had to head west down I-66, though, and some places reached 30. Beautiful fall foliage as well!
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temps were rapidly dropping as well
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finally this thread is active again with one of my favorite posters posting. regarding the discussion, though, we're poised for a colder November, right? Long range shows a decent pattern for cold.
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very good mean as well
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12z AIFS ensemble is a mess LOL
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Regarding the Oct 31 - Nov 3 system: 12z Euro Ensemble has lots of members give decent snow totals to the mountains, with a handful of members showing some first-of-the-season flakes for the lower elevation people. And don't ask me what panel 20 is doing--but SE wins again lol
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adding on to @Terpeast's message above for DCA and BWI... Snowfall @ IAD | DCA | BWI 1995-96: 61.9" | 46.0" | 62.5" 1996-97: 17.8" | 6.7" | 15.3" 2000-01: 12.9" | 7.4" | 8.7" 2008-09: 8.0" | 7.5" | 9.1" 2013-14: 52.8" | 32.0" | 39.0" 2021-22: 15.8" | 13.2" | 14.4" ----- Averages: IAD: 28.2" DCA: 18.8" BWI: 24.8" IAD minus 1995-96, 2013-14: 13.6" DCA minus 1995-96, 2013-14: 8.7" BWI minus 1995-96, 2013-14: 11.9"
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what a rarity. the jack zone is actually north of DC!
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sign me up for that h5 look in winter!
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speaking of the jan 96 blizzard, what happened to that late february storm that prevented something like that from happening? was it just classic nina tendencies? in other words, what went wrong?
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How does a cold November with -AO/NAO correlate to winter?
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that would be hilarious. our first one should be the 11/11 VD redux.
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CFS continues to love the idea of a mid-November coastal bringing us wintry precip.
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just to clarify, when you refer to "this shit" (lol), are you referring to the PDO always rising in the fall/winter and falling back down in the spring/summer, or are you referring to the pdo rise right now, and you're saying that the rise can't last forever?
