stormy
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Everything posted by stormy
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-0.4 this morning. Harrisonburg reported -4.0.
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I think its almost inevitable as nearly always the case. A long cold pattern is followed by a mild pattern. When the arctic empties it takes a while to reload, if it is........ I would expect a milder at least first half of February, then a return to colder into March. GEFS most pronounced. ECM thinking about it.
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5.3 this morning. The cloud cover put a blanket over radiational cooling. Clear skies and calm winds would have bottomed out at zero to -3.0 7.2 at 8:30.
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Are you happy in your little corner of the world ???? I hope so.
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I compare rainfall records to 100 years ago but not temperature records for the reason that you illustrate. Measuring methods were vastly different 100 years ago and UHI had not kicked in which is a beast in the past 50 years.
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Exactly , and track of low pressure from central Va. to northern N.C.
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Either one is reasonable
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We'll see
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Within 50 hrs. the NAM seems to hone in. Beyond 50 hrs. it is useless. The 3 k NAM has me at 3.2" at 18z.................... 0 before..................
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The NAM 12 k is finally coming on board after total blindness. Now, 2" for me after a long run of 0. Of course, this is the NAM.
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My 3 model blend increased from 3.1" at 8 am to 4.0 at 2 pm. GFS increased from 4.6" to 6.2" , Euro 2.6 up to 3.8. CMC ens. 2.0". 3 - 5 seems reasonable for the Central Valley at this point.
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I'll take that before brutal cold on Monday and drifting snow!!!!
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It is odd to worry about liquid, but he is who he is. Everyone needs to understand that.
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The 18z NAM is beginning to see..... It was totally blind to the threat on Sunday at 12z.
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8.7 at 7 am.
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For about 10 hours. Cheer up Mattie! At least its in the 5 day threat period.
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I'm slightly interested. 2 identical runs are impressive.
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11.2 this morning. At least the sun is out.
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You are smart! Snow climo is very fluid depending on where you measure. Lets be honest, we have been in a snow drought for nearly 10 years. Micromanaging can vary.
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I surpassed snow climo in 21-22 with 28.50 inches. The relentless harp about lack of snow and warming is amusing.................... I guess, that's what makes the world go around.....................
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This can be a driver that often rules the roost in winter when more than -3.0 negative
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The GEFS extended has a colder anomaly for the first 10 days of February than 24 hrs. ago.
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The EURO splits the difference between the GEM and GFS
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GFS has the same system which is always good, but has the Atlantic ridge weaker and the system is suppressed.
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1 inch last night. 18 at 7 am, up to 25. I plowed out the driveway because we like bare pavement.
