stormy

You need to get that thermometer in ventilated shade, all the time. This is very important.

LOL, I was building a case! AI makes it easy in today's world. I should tell you sometime about all the acrobatics I went thru during the late 60's to construct a temperature measuring shelter to NWS standards!!

I'm going by the Staunton official records. A thermometer exposed to the rays of the sun or other artificial heating can register significantly higher than actual air temperature. Even reflective heat can artificially inflate the temperature.

The last time we hit 100 in this area was 38 years ago on August 18, 1988. I recorded 102 on that day as I was managing a VDOT paving crew. Try that when the pavement is close to 200 out of the plant.. It will melt the soles on your shoes.

I was very lucky Sunday evening, receiving 1.23" between 6:30 - 8:30. Total for the weekend, 1.89"....

You got drawn in because I admire and greatly respect your demonstrated intelligence.

I am amazed at how wrong you can be about so many things!! No wonder you didn't know the difference between a Watch and a Warning! Amazing A couple other duds: Why would I be "vehemently against climate change" when it has been non-stop for millions of years! As far as "knowing more than studied meteorologists", that is hilarious!!! I like nothing more than learning from a true professional. Voretex 95 is highly intelligent and made fantastic contributions to the discussion yesterday. I only wish that he could find the time to make daily contributions. Cape? Well, he used to be contributory at times. More and more as he gets older, he gets his kicks by trying to be the bulldog on the block. Mental issues I guess. Stay straight, study hard and one day you may be a fine met. My disappointment yesterday was that several months ago, considering your desired course in life, I thought I could occasionally begin to learn from you. I just have to be patient.

I topped out at .66" for the event.

Yes, the media thrives on sensationalism like oh my goodness , this has never happened before. And, millions of dunces believe it.

Hey! You have a good point! SWE should have been SWA. ( Severe Weather Alerts) Thanks!!

How would it be possible to issue a Flash Flood Warning considering the menial amount of rainfall for the past 24 hrs??.. You are a severe disappointment compared to earlier expectations.

The forecaster has reasoning but pattern recognition for the past 36 hours would say NO. During recent times (1-2 years), this type of over-hype is occurring more often for SWE'S.

.59" 1-3 am. 12 reports in Augusta range from 0.00 to 1.00".

It also looks great to me compared to earlier runs.

18z NAM shifts qp south thru Sunday. WPC camps out front near Winchester thru Sat morning then crawling south .

Unfortunately, I'm on the extreme south edge of that.

I would hope that north/south/east and west all get a good soaking................... The extended NWS slows the front down because Sterling increased my POP on Sunday from 30% to 60%.

48.6 felt kind of chilly this morning. Interesting observation: For Augusta, the qp received yesterday was less than half of most expectations from 12 and 18z Monday.

That needs to shift south by about a hundred miles

.58" total last 2 days. Not bad. The first 21 days of June produced a glorious .09"..

.42" yesterday in the central valley. Light rain began this morning at about 7:00.

When I flashed a Storm Alert to my 1000 patron Newsletter at 2:23, I increased my POP for tomorrow from 25% to 60%. Lo and behold, when Sterling revised with the afternoon package at 3:00, they increased their POP from 20 - 60% for tomorrow. My call had nothing to do with skill or expertise. But, 5 models cannot be denied! Hopefully, El Nino is beginning to knock.

The thing about a strong El Nino winter is that expectations are always high but reality can sometimes be a disappointment. 72-73 at +2.00 only gave Augusta County 3.0" of snow. 86-87 at +1.60 gave Augusta 52" of snow. 91-92 at +2.30 only gave Augusta 3.3" of snow. 09 - 10 at +1.50 average gave Augusta 63" of snow. The thing about 09-10 is that both the NAO at -2.00 and the AO at -3.50 were strongly negative. I think that was important.

I have enjoyed reading all the thoughts on this thread during the past hour. I see that J.B. has defaulted to 97-98. I pray that he is correct. 97-98 averaged +2.20 Nino, the ECMWF is closer to 3.00 for this coming winter. As most realize, we are in a serious to extreme, drought. To prevent hardship for many in our society, we need lots of rainfall or melted snow over an extended period of time. I pray for a repeat of 97 - 98 because it was the wettest winter of any of 9 strong Nino's back to 1950. I received 22.62" of rain and melted snow compared to a normal 8.40" of precip. in DJF. Regarding snowfall in 97-98, 33 inches was 9 inches above normal for Augusta County. Regarding NAO or AO for Augusta snowfall ?? The NAO doesn't seem to be really important, but the AO should be firmly negative according to historical observations. During 97-98 the AO averaged -2.00 and the NAO averaged about -.30".