stormy

The huge question this morning is, how much warming aloft on Sunday. The EURO is off the wall with possibilities for Augusta County. The Euro deterministic gives me 9.8" of snow, .89" of freezing rain and 1.5" of sleet. I simply don't believe that as it has no support with upper level thermals from the EPS, AI or AI ens. The AI ens. gives me 15.7" of snow with 850 temperatures at least 5 degrees colder... .89" freezing rain is hugely inflated over all other models that indicate zr amounts. 12z will be interesting.

ICON north at 18z. RRFS north at 18z

EPS gives me 11 inches and .39" freezing rain. I find that hard to believe since the warmest that I get at 850 is 28. 700 is not available. The ECM AI ens. gives me 14 inches of snow. ZR not available on AI.

12z GEM went south. My sleet dropped from 3.0" to 1.5". Kuchera increased from 13.6 to 15.7. 850 and 700 a wash with 00z.

The chance for some ice mixed with the snow seems to be increasing south of Winchester. The latest Canadian gives me 3 inches of sleet on top of 12 inches of snow on Sunday. The 850 temp. is well below freezing, but I creep up to 0c for about 3 or 4 hours at 700. My 10:1 is 12.8" this morning from 8 sources. Kuchera is 19.9. Oh well, sleet will only slow the melting process.

My prediction earlier today that the 12z GFS was only a "blip" nailed it. GFS is back from 1.5" to a foot.

You are a very smart and reasonable person. Those can be preciously rare commodities. Regarding all the rants about the GFS, I gave fair warning of this possibility 2 hours ago. I believe the 12z run is probably little more than a blip since the GEFS did not follow suit. We will see at 18z.

a balmy 14 early this morning

A $5,000 disaster for my trees was November, 2018

My 10 pm Sunday prediction has evolved to a 100% verification score with the inclusion of the GFS and GEM det. For Augusta County, the 7 am Kuchera model/ensemble blend is 18.2 inches from 4 pm Sat. - 6 pm Sunday. The 10:1 blend is 10.2 inches. IMO, we have reached a peak of prediction. Strong hp up north is still a suppression possibility. The greatest threat during the next 3 days is a downside default because this storm does not fit into 6 month pattern reality. Pattern recognition can be very important in weather forecasting. PSU has said recently that we have wasted many opportunities this winter and that is a disappointment. Here's hoping that everyone is thrilled come Monday morning.

My 7 model blend for Augusta has increased from 6.5" at 7 am to 11.4" at 3 pm. I have to admire the GFS for sticking to it's guns with suppression from strong arctic hp., but the tide seems to be going out........................... I am reminding myself that this is still 5 days away........................... Honestly, I will be very happy with 6 - 8 inches....................

Last night at 10, I posted that significant changes would occur by or before the 12z runs Tuesday. A huge change with 12z today. The GEM skyrocketed from 1.3" to 20.5" in my backyard. More changes are on the way......................

I expect a significant change in this threat by or before the 12z runs on Tuesday.

Sorry You didn't get your 4 inches!!! Blame it on the goofy Euro!

For the next 7 days, 4 ensembles and the ECM control give my area a blended 9.3 inches of snow. The GFS control gives me 0..................... This chart will be very interesting to follow-up on.

The Euro AI deterministic 24/25 event can be given a 20% chance of verification 7 days out. That's better than 10% on deterministic Op. AI ens just downloading.

That's cool, GreyHat and I used to be drinkin buddies.............

Please forgive me!!! I'm so sorry! I'll send 4 to D.C. from my cut. AND, 4 to you from Roanoke. I'm serious!! If you don't believe me, just wait til 00z................

I don't mind sharing! I'll send half of my 8 to D.C. for the 00 run. 4 and 4 seems like a good deal.

09-10 was a once in a lifetime pattern. Nino with +1.0 - +1.5 , NAO -1+, AO Dec.09 -3.4, Feb. 10 -4.2...................... Will we ever see this again??

I received a heavy dusting of snow 6:30 - 7:30. Perhaps .15" Short range models about 1 hr. too slow.

I always liked Christmas, but make that 1-25!

Thursday 12" snow on 1-25 Yesterday, snow disappeared but 0 F. on 12-25..... I said, no-way. This morning, Euro has been re-born to 18 F. on 12-25...... LOL again

You nailed it Chuck, if it materializes. -2 to -4 AO signals are quite often precursors to significant winter weather events.

That's irrational modeling by the EURO. With excellent radiational cooling, maybe. With a 13 mph wind and 76% cloudiness over Augusta, 0 ain't gonna happen.