stormy

Thanks for your expert analysis. It is greatly appreciated .

I appreciate your suggestion, but No, I won't ignore them. I fully understand that they are supposed to be more accurate than the deterministic models because of more data input across various parameters. A higher skill score should be achieved, especially for complex systems or longer term considerations. I will develop a comparison chart for ECM/EPS and GFS and GFS ens. Saturdays rain will be a good first comparison.

I ask everyone a question............................... Are we grasping at straws when we look at Ensembles????? The ensembles ARE A DISASTER...................... I ASK EVERYONE, what have you learned from the ensembles in the last 10 days?????????? Are we losing reality because of focus on ensembles.????

NW flow is good for Elkins or Oakland. It usually kills east of mts., winter or summer.

Euro increases Augusta qp from .69" to 1.08" Saturday. More moderate rates east of cyclogenesis over Tenn./Ky.

A disturbing ECMWF that has dropped from 1.19" rainfall to .69" from 00z to 06z. A 43% drop in 1 run is not good! Maybe 06 was a fluke and will return at 12z?

This is useless CRAP on January 6.

You are close. Too much NW - SE flow is a dry flow and discourages the pattern that we need with an active STJ.

I'm at 59.

I'm from St. Louis.............. I want to measure it in my gauge. A "soaker" must be more than an inch. A quarter inch only lays the dust for about 36 hrs..

30 years ago Thursday it had snowed for 50 hrs, giving us 30". 10 days later, I had 3.20" of rain and a flood!

My grill will be humping in about 2 hrs....................... 2 bone in skin on split chicken breasts, side smoked over seasoned apple slabs. 3 ozs. of Black Jack on the rocks and I will be set. Dinner is served at 6.

This is MacDonald Carey.........................................................................................

Capsulized reality: December averaged 4 - 5 degrees colder than normal. A January thaw will occur for the next week - 10 days. There are mixed signals after that. Snow threats have evaporated until after the 15th. Pray for rain to alleviate our serious drought. Smile and enjoy the thaw, as I will be. Crank up the grill for a backyard barbecue!!

OOz NAM says no precipitation thru 84 hrs. How much longer can this continue????? Other guidance says Precipitation outlook is 000

Ji would be in heaven!! https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/80-inches-of-snow-in-juneau-alaska-smashes-record-sinks-boats/1849220

The late January period has so many variables that are unresolved. This La Nina winter is decent with a December 4 - 5 degrees colder than normal. Something very strange is that PSU used to preach that temperatures were not usually cold enough for snow any more.................. That is amazing..................... Wrong but amazing......................... Stupid people will put this post down................ Intelligent people will say, WOW, you have something there. What are you??? STUPID or INTELLIGENT ??? Intelligent says that February and March will probably have surprises. Snowlovers, You have another 70 days ........................

I told you that yesterday but you were bull - headed.. You seem to have wised up overnight.

18 z GFS gives me .25"

You have your head in the right place. "How will we ever recover our Credibility" This event is a long shot and has elevation written all over it. There was a time when a thread would not have been created. This time, after the encouragement of headliners, it was created. American Weather is treading into very dangerous territory.

Happy New Year Everyone!! My total rain and melted snow in 2025 was 35.73". This was 6.07 " below the 40 year average of 41.80".

You need to understand that lake effect is totally different between northwest Pa. and Phillidelphia. This is 2 totally different worlds!!!!!!!! Dear God! I thought your knowledge was advanced...................................

Jamestown, New York can receive 18 inches when D.C. receives 0OOOO

Not necessarily. The snow-belt regions off the eastern lakes can get tremendous amounts of snowfall when we get very little or nothing.

This dropped to 13.9 at 7:30! , excellent radiational cooling.