stormy

You need to understand that lake effect is totally different between northwest Pa. and Phillidelphia. This is 2 totally different worlds!!!!!!!! Dear God! I thought your knowledge was advanced...................................

Jamestown, New York can receive 18 inches when D.C. receives 0OOOO

Not necessarily. The snow-belt regions off the eastern lakes can get tremendous amounts of snowfall when we get very little or nothing.

This dropped to 13.9 at 7:30! , excellent radiational cooling.

congratulations~!

That would be a winner! Congratulations Ji!!!

16.1 this morning.

I support Capes thoughts completely. This is no-mans land during winter.

Hopefully , late January and February will mimic climo... The recent pause in the cause has caused some to become increasingly desperate.

This is 18z model interpretation. Less than .10 ". Are we talking about ice-fog? I wish we had a threat but this seems desperate.

This is a limp grasp at a shadow.............................

The 10 - 15 day features moisture trying to move northeast from the lower Mississippi valley. Confluence with LP over S.E Canada suppresses.

December was another DRY month. I received 1.76" of rain and melted snow.......... 68% of normal. 6.5" of snow gave .45" of q.p. 31 degrees at 2:30 with a 12 mph N.W. wind.

The next 7 days remain very dry:

I have frequently posted about the drought, I wish to set the record straight and assure everyone that I'm not blaming low snowfall on the drought. High ratio snowfall can easily accumulate with low moisture. My January qp averages 2.95". I could receive only 67% of normal at 2.00" and easily accumulate 25 inches of dry snow. Yes, I do believe with co-operating temperatures its easier to accumulate heavy snowfall with above average qp. That is a common sense call. Farmers often wish for snowfall in a drought to rebuild the water table. High ratio snowfall doesn't do a lot for the water table.

I get your drift. I don't put the GEM down like some do. Honestly, it sometimes outperforms both the EURO and GFS, especially with thermals.

I was just getting ready to post this. This is close to where the EURO was 24 hours ago.

The GEM at 240 could be on to something. Southern Arkansas to Myrtle Beach. This is not far from where the EURO was 24 hrs. ago. Verification at this range is comparable to the GFS.

Unfortunately, the GFS believes that the drought persists for at least another 10 days..............

Hey Ji : That's about the same time-frame as the 00z GFS event.

Lets hope that the last half is rip-roaring!

54 degrees at 7 am with a southwest wind of 18 mph.

The southeast ridge pours cold water on the 00z GFS.

Southern Arkansas to Norfolk on the deterministic is reminiscent of tracks from January 1966. Other pieces of this puzzle not fitting together. AI and EPS don't like northern Va.. I was hoping to be able to feature in my Monday Newsletter Edition but I'm losing confidence.

And the latest Canadian ensemble maintains the same drought region for the next 10 days: