stormy

That eastward "severely misplaced" translating HP as you say, would not be misplaced with a 50/50 LP. For decades the 50/50 low has been a gold standard for a major winter storm because it will lock the cold air in by blocking eastward translation of western New England HP.

100% correct. Possible, but the 12-2 system has the deck stacked against it. No 50-50 low, no Lakes to New England H.P. as a cold air source. And of course, our long time drought pattern that no one fully understands is again an aggravating factor. The GFS dropped the QPF from 1.48" for Augusta at 06 11-27 to .60" at 06 11-28. I don't have enough fingers to count how many times this has happened during the past 4 months.

The amped shift is cooling the interior. The amped solution was lost yesterday at this time, warming everything. I dropped from 13 inches white stuff to .60" fr at 12z yesterday. Will we lose it again?

The GFS is now seeing a colder solution for Tuesday, surface and aloft.

I haven't received any measurable rain yet. That 3-5" snow here would have required a vivid imagination!

Many times my first acc. snow has been around Dec. 5.

As a matter of fact, I received an additional 2.5 inches of snow on Feb.1 Additional 1 inch on Feb. 2 with a high of 30. The next 5 days were cold with low to mid 30's for highs. A thaw in week 2 with temps. creeping into the low 40's. Another 10 inches of snow on Feb. 24 with a high of 27. 1966 was a snowy year with 76 inches recorded.

This should help some who are whining over Christmas. Christmas of 1965, I recorded a high of 65 degrees. January of 1966, I received 36 inches of snow..............................

Thank You! I could have had similar input for my location but you beat me to it. My predicted high for the 18th 24 hrs prior at 6 am 11-17 for my newsletter was 43. I missed it by 2 degrees 24 hrs prior. The NWS at Sterling missed it by 9 degrees, 12 hrs. prior and in real time because of buying in to model error. The models almost always scour the cold from entrenched CAD out of valleys too quickly on a southeast or east breeze for Augusta. The Sterling forecaster obviously didn't understand or consider this on Tuesday even after midday red flags.

How about models being off 10 degrees for thermal highs in 12 hours. Is that acceptable???

Today was better. A predicted high of 56 with a high of 55. The forecaster at Sterling needs to understand that with an approaching system, a warmfront in southwest Va. with CAD creates low values over N.W. Va.

.18"

The NWS predicted high was 50. Shame on you NWS. I have topped out at 41. .03" rain

Thanks for all this information!. Nothing like true eyewitness accounting!! I live too far east for lake effect upslope. My area is downslope for west or northwest winds. We do well with southern systems or noreaasters, being upslope for those. My first experience with lake effect upslope was late October of 1968. I drove from a partly sunny 53 degrees at Harrisonburg to pouring snow and 26 degrees at the summit of Spruce Knob with 4 - 6 inches acc. and drifting. Many times during the 70's and 80's, when I wanted lake effect, I drove to the state line on Rt. 250 which is the highest elevation of any primary highway in Virginia at 4332 ft.. The old timers at Monterey have told me that legend has snow flurries falling there in July many years ago. People who have never experienced lake effect snow have no idea how much difference can exist 50 or 60 miles northwest of Staunton or Harrisonburg on an invading northwest wind, especially late fall and early winter when the waters of Erie or Michigan are still warm. Truly, another world.

Usually Snowshoe being 1300 ft. higher than Davis is a favored spot. Quinwood 20 miles west/southwest and 2000 ft. lower than Snowshoe's 6 inches reported 9 inches. Weird. Upslope didn't work exactly right this time around.

I find it quite unusual for Davis to report 13 inches of snow when Snowshoe reports only 6 inches since Monday.

Last years enso signal was very similar to what is forecast this winter at -.6 My previous 7 year average snowfall was 15 inches last year. I broke it last winter with 18 inches. You take what you get, smile and be happy. I totally agree with you.

Are You really serious????

This morning at 300 hrs. the GFS gives Waynesboro a total of 2.0" around the 12th. The ECMWF gives Waynesboro a total of .04" at 300 hrs.. During the next several days, one will cave.

I have been looking forward to our next potential precip. maker. Noticed something interesting. The GFS, GEM and ECM AI ENS say Nov. 9 - 11. In disagreement the ECM deterministic and ECM AI say we stay mostly dry. Will be interesting.

1.65" total

I have been squirrel hunting for decades. Introduced by my dad. They are a gourmets delight prepared properly. Population varies from year to year based largely on last years hard mast crop. More mast last year, more squirrels this year.

Hello out west! I was out there squirrel hunting yesterday morning. No luck as squirrels are few and far between this year. This is east/central Augusta on the north side of Waynesboro. Late yesterday afternoon. My latest 4 model blend of 12z today is 1.34". Tonight should feature the main event.

My 5 model blend dropped overnight from 1.96" to 1.44". NBM dropped from 1.75 to 1.20 as would be expected. My sweetspot for significant rainfall seems to be 6 pm to 6 am. I am running a deficit of 7.14" since August 1 !!

Yes Will, the 18z NBM increased my QP from 1.50" to 1.75" as I expected from 2 hrs. ago. The NBM is easy to predict........................