stormy

I expect a significant change in this threat by or before the 12z runs on Tuesday.

Sorry You didn't get your 4 inches!!! Blame it on the goofy Euro!

For the next 7 days, 4 ensembles and the ECM control give my area a blended 9.3 inches of snow. The GFS control gives me 0..................... This chart will be very interesting to follow-up on.

The Euro AI deterministic 24/25 event can be given a 20% chance of verification 7 days out. That's better than 10% on deterministic Op. AI ens just downloading.

That's cool, GreyHat and I used to be drinkin buddies.............

Please forgive me!!! I'm so sorry! I'll send 4 to D.C. from my cut. AND, 4 to you from Roanoke. I'm serious!! If you don't believe me, just wait til 00z................

I don't mind sharing! I'll send half of my 8 to D.C. for the 00 run. 4 and 4 seems like a good deal.

09-10 was a once in a lifetime pattern. Nino with +1.0 - +1.5 , NAO -1+, AO Dec.09 -3.4, Feb. 10 -4.2...................... Will we ever see this again??

I received a heavy dusting of snow 6:30 - 7:30. Perhaps .15" Short range models about 1 hr. too slow.

I always liked Christmas, but make that 1-25!

Thursday 12" snow on 1-25 Yesterday, snow disappeared but 0 F. on 12-25..... I said, no-way. This morning, Euro has been re-born to 18 F. on 12-25...... LOL again

You nailed it Chuck, if it materializes. -2 to -4 AO signals are quite often precursors to significant winter weather events.

That's irrational modeling by the EURO. With excellent radiational cooling, maybe. With a 13 mph wind and 76% cloudiness over Augusta, 0 ain't gonna happen.

Too much chaos! The models are on a roller coaster from run to run.................... My 30% on the EURO from yesterday drops to 10%.

They need to get smoked. Winter to date, they are 40% under normal snowfall.

That's called chaos. Scientific reality

I like the 3k resolution and hourly updates.

Well, the EURO 25 threat survived 00z, but much weaker and strung out with less UL support. I dropped from 12 inches to 5 as a measure of strength. I'm a little surprised that it survived! And now the GFS jumps into the fray for a very active last 10 days of January. Bring on the 10:1 stuff. I don't want to measure more dust.

I agree! After pondering, I just reduced that 40% to 30% for my newsletter which sails at 4 pm. If it still populates with significance at 24 hrs., that 30% can increase to 50%. Of course, some weenies are already hyped to 80%, which is a recipe for heartbreak. Some of those read my newsletter. That's another reason to drop to 30% with a caveat about 9 days out. Snow-lovers thrive on hope. I don't wish to be the snow grinch to others. 30% can be a happy median. 40% is a little too bullish.

Euro on the 25th is much better than the GFS on the 28th. Mobile to Charleston to OBX with cold high pressure to the north would work! Warning level accumulations with 850 temperatures well down in the 20's and falling would rule out mixing issues. Considering this is 9 days out I will give it a 40% chance of verifying. If still populating with significance at 24 hrs, that 40% can increase to 60%.

The 2m anomaly for Jan 24 - 31 on the GFS changed dramatically from 06 - 12z. Much colder!

We need a complete pattern change. I have hopes for later spring and summer as an El Nino is predicted to develop. A spring branch that flows thru. my property perked up a little from the rain but is still very low for January.

After the 1.20" of rain last week, my rate of fall leveled off a little. For a 7 day period from 12-19 to 12-26 , my water table dropped .73 Ft. For the 7 day period from 1-08 to 1-15 my water table only dropped .43 Ft. Glorious drought mitigation!!! 1.20" last week was 12% of rainfall needed.

That will update later this morning.

YES, " expectations should be low when only one model is depicting the desired outcome over several runs" Many are so irrationally starved for snow that they allow expectations to be hyped, then try to crucify the offending model with irrational nonsense when it shrinks away from the desired outcome. This time, the offending model is the GFS.................. Historically, the EURO has also at times been the offender. It's time to cool our emotions and look forward to the future. I will probably have more to say later today.