stormy
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Everything posted by stormy
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You are hilarious!! Do you need help?? I am very concerned about your mental stability. I'm guessing the temperature was below 50 at 9 pm. Below 33 at 2 am And below 32 at 5 am.
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On Oct. 9, 1979 in Staunton it was 70 degrees. From 2 am that night until noon on the 10th, it snowed 9 inches.
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15 degrees early this morning.
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Chuck: The CPC agrees with you. The PDO is a significant contributing issue to the pattern. They issued the latest 3 - 4 week outlook yesterday for Feb. 28 - Mar. 13. This predicts warmer than normal and drier than normal for eastern portions of our region with normal precip. for western portions.
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14 degrees and calm this morning.
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I hope your right!!! If the long-term pattern persists into the spring, the lawn mowers can be retired, water use restrictions will be common and many folks will suffer a loss of water in private wells. The water table has dropped 22 ft. since June in Augusta County.
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Hello again my friend: I suggest that the NWS idea of limited CAD was "wrong' : This would create support for the AI solution. The EURO AI deterministic is fine. But the EURO AIFS ensemble is not ready for Primetime. Maybe next winter, but not this year.
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This model is not ready for Primetime. Next winter it probably will be because of how quickly AI is advancing. Any person who gives great credence to this model at this time has not studied its support.
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This is very fluid situation with many players. NWS confident solution at 6 pm may be completely different at 6 am as new solutions are available. I hope that you can understand that.
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For Sunday/Monday, availability of cold air will be crucial. Damming is establishing as I write from HP over the northern lakes and LP toward 50/50. NWS believes CAD will be limited. I am not convinced of that......................... I am currently leaning toward a colder solution.
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This is fools gold
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The overnight trend appears colder for Sun./Mon. but this is likely an elevation event which encourages 1-3 inches above 1000 ft. Thermals, surface and aloft are very marginal.
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The EURO weeklies are playing catch-up with the GEFS ext.
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He should move to Cut Bank, Montana. Then, once in a while.......
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East of the mountains can be another world regarding snowfall. I well understand that fact. Here in the Valley, some of our greatest snowstorms have been in March. March of 1960 produced 26 inches. March of 1962 dumped 38 inches. March of 1993 produced 19 inches.
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Thanks Cape! This is a reasonable explanation.
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1 pm average 8 - 15 mph
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One thought to all this hulabaloo. The pattern is changing after 2 months of colder than normal. Pattern change creates model kaos. Before the 18 z runs, I will be BOLD. The 2 month colder than normal pattern is ending................. March will probably be variable temperature wise and a hodge podge of rain/snow events....................................
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With the primary jumping from Indianapolis to secondary developing in southeastern N.C., deepening and finding a home around Nagshead/Norfolk, GGEM dumps 18" on Augusta County. GEPS comes in with 15 inches. What a trip!! That I give a 1% chance of verifying, unless the EURO spits out 12 inches. Then, that 1% leaps to 5%. If this was Thursday 12z, different ballgame.
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The EURO loves freezing rain as usual. The GEM is nutty as a fruit cake with UL Thermals. The GFS looks reasonable with track, thermals surface and aloft. My 7 model blend has increased from 2.2" at 7 am to 5.5" at 2 pm.
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ZR with the ECMWF really doesn't mean a lot. It forecasted .86" a week ago and I received .05" LOL
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Run to run consistency can be important. I would feel better if the op Euro gave some support but as explained earlier today, tremendous differences exit between AI and physics based models. I would expect a general coming together within a few days. Unusual unpredictability also exists IMO because some rather strong signals suggest that we may be approaching a pattern change after persistent cold since late December.
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Welcome to the board!! Don't lose any sleep over others trying to put you down!. You will learn a lot by reading a lot but you also have the right to post and occasionally make a mistake. Nobody is always perfect.
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Thanks for this coherent explanation! It is appreciated.
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The GFS signaled the trend with the 18z run when QP dropped significantly over Virginia. After 18z, I was expecting 00z to be feast or famine. Famine rules the roost.
