stormy

Early cold shots have absolutely no clue to the following winter......................... This is something that has been demonstrated many times. If anyone wants a clue, come back about Thanksgiving.

54 degrees early this morning.

This is a classic, sometimes encountered. A grudge match between HP to our north and moisture to our south wanting to come north. The models and the prof mets. at the NWS, TWC, ACCU. are totally confused. But, confusion is the best way to go. This will all wash out in the next 72 hours.

The models have dried for Wednesday and Thursday and Sterling has went wetter for Staunton. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-79.05445863492788&lat=38.16380555335593

Please do Will. I always look forward to your Updates!!

The Euro and GEM have caved to the dry GFS for the end of the week. The GFS has been dry consistently while the Euro has been wet consistently. This is a big win for the GFS and a kick in the groin to the Euro.

49 degrees at 6:30 felt like fall. Chilly CAD with cloudiness should hold afternoon temps. down Tuesday/Wednesday.

The Euro has sucked up some GGEM juice!

Euro Weeklies and GEFS Extended in general agreement for August precip. Dry, D.C. east, wet west of D.C. especially up the spine of Apps. Heat Dome likes the 4 corners ( better than Texas, east), with a slight semblance of troughiness for the east.

I agree with your August 11- 18 thoughts. The Weather August thru October looks warmer and drier than normal in the MA . Tropical activity late Sept./ and Oct. could alter this.

I received 1.32" . .5 north reported 2.30".

A very pleasant afternoon at 79 degrees. Convective action in the I-81 corridor has spiced up the afternoon. 75 at Staunton after .69" rainfall, 76 at Churchville after 1.03 " I received my normal .01" but the cool air with northerly breezes is absolutely wonderful!!!!!!!

The Euro weeklies and GEFS extended have broken a several week qp agreement toward August as they have consistently agreed on above normal precip for Virginia. The Euro has now shifted toward drier than normal. They both agree on a 500 mb. heat dome centered on Texas, NM and OKL. But, the Euro is east centered compared to 10 days ago. This eliminates any attached troughiness with a dominate NW flow. A dominate NW flow is usually drier than normal, especially for western areas without an attached trough upstream, because it puts us in the rain shadow of the mts. If this upper heights pattern verifies, I would have to lean in the direction of the Euro for the next 30 days. I have received 4.47" during the first 21 days of July compared to a normal 2.94" thru 21 days. 152% of normal. August may flip if the Euro is correct.

As I said 2 hrs. ago, I would not bet the bank on all storms skirting south of D.C. Short-range atmospherics guided me elsewhere........................... I nailed it...............

You open the door to a very interesting commentary on storm movements during the past couple of weeks. Upper air guidance has been very weak and erratic. This has encouraged huge dumps of rain on some locations while a couple miles away were barely touched. Case in point, last Sunday afternoon a storm materialized along the Blue Ridge on the north side of Waynesboro. 99% of the time, a cell on the Blue Ridge will head towards Charlottesville or northeast to Elkton. But, this cell back-built to the west and skirted just to my south. I received .14" while locations 1-2 miles to my south received 1 - 3 inches!! A spring fed stream that flows through my property and drains that watershed jumped up a ft. a few hours later.

Flood Watch for the Central Valley from 2 pm thru 10pm. The language of the Watch allows for 1 - 4 inches of rain. The ICON is the most bullish with .69" thru 0400. Other factors give a prime window of opportunity for convective elements from 3 - 7 pm. Most of the activity is progged to skirt to the south of DC. but I wouldn't bet the bank on that.

Happy birthday! Thanks very much for taking the time to give me a very reasonable explanation! Your expert analysis is very important to me. I reached out to you because you were obviously bullish early Friday morning. When I don't understand something that repeatedly seems strange, I ask questions. I have repeatedly received only sprinkles for the last 7 days with several Watches. I have talked to some who are starting to water their gardens. Some people seem to walk around with a chip on their shoulder, therefore they attack a question: "wheres the rain?". You are obviously a very intelligent person who understands that I simply asked a very reasonable question. Thanks again for your expert explanation! The GFS is bullish for my area late this afternoon. I will hang my hopes on that.

I am not making a "whiny ass post". I would expect this from a goofball such as yourself. I am simply asking a question from someone who unlike yourself should have the intelligence to answer a question. What happened today? I want to know after repeated false alarms from the NWS. Why don't you remove your completely stupid attitude from this forum. We don't need your condescending attitude anymore. You are a self righteous idiot. I have tolerated your asinine attitude in the past, but no more.

Where is the rain??????? We are 6 hours into this and I have had 5 drops..........................

The WPC has dropped from 3.00 inches of rain for Augusta to .25"!!!!!!!!!! AS Jackie said 60 years ago.................. "How Sweet It Is"

Another day and another Flood Watch. Maybe this time more than sprinkles? Yes, I broadcast at 6:45. Expected rainfall next 24 hrs., 1 to possibly 6 inches! The WPC and Sterling FD bullseyes my area for flooding rainfall. RRFS ensembles indicate a 40% chance of 100 yr. amounts HREF Max Qp indicates 4 - 7 inches. The ICON is the only normally sampled model that has any interest. The GFS, ECM, GEM, NAM and HRRR are not impressed with potential. If today is another bust for Augusta County, my explanation for my newsletter will be tough! Hopefully, it occasionally pours from 3 - 9 pm.

You're exactly right and I agree with you 100%. You were lucky to be slammed Sunday. I received .10". The last 4 Watches have given me a total of .15". That's fine because I take all watches with a grain of salt even though I still fire them on my newsletter. I'm not foolish enough to trust the government to protect me from a flood or other harm in life. People who play that game often wind up disappointed or worse. The NWS only gives me a 30% pop today so my chances are probably better late this afternoon or evening of finally getting a decent rain. The Watches will likely return tomorrow.

How did all of that turn out?????

Flood Watch #5 in the last 30 days was issued for Augusta County at 8:07 am. With the first 4, I only averaged .29" per Watch. Hopefully, #5 will yield pay dirt.

Many are already ignoring the watches because its the boy who cried wolf too often.