stormy

Icon bumped north from Roanoke to Lexington

Good Morning. I just wish to start the day by clearing up some misunderstandings. The first sentence alleges that I "have a weird fixation with the Euro not being good" Nothing could be farther from the truth. I believe that the Euro is an important contributor, but not a king. If a person believes that a model is king, they may be too quick to discount another, especially if it disappoints. Verification scores place the Euro slightly ahead of the GFS. As I said last night, often, a forecast formulation for success would be something close to 60% Euro and 40% GFS. I read the AFD's from Sterling and Blacksburg almost daily and have been for years. The NWS forecasters often refer to both GFS and ECMWF. They sometimes lean toward one and sometimes the other. Back to the here and now, my significant accumulation forecast has evaporated. The only sources still more than an inch are the EPS at 1.4" and the GEFS at 1.9"................. That would be a nice dust up to this iceberg that I am locked into.

Yes, I know it has the highest verification scores. But, I don't consider it to be a king. A king rules. The Euro only rules if misinformed people allow it to rule. Last weekend the Euro was wrong about predominant precipitation type. It was wrong about about total qp. It was wrong about total snowfall amount. If we had received Euro predicted rainfall for the last 6 months, we wouldn't be in a severe drought now. These are the important factors to rate a model. It is not a king. Sometimes it is right, sometimes it is wrong. Longtime expert formulation rating for a forecast......... Use 60% ECMWF and 40% GFS...............

That message was the truth. Very simple without getting "socrates" involved.

The King is a figment of your imagination.

The 18z Nam gives me 2 inches compared to .1 at 12z. A step in the right direction!!!!!!!

Yes, I have been following the ECMWF, EPS, ECM AI, GEM and GEPS. If the GFS and GEFS continue dropping precipitously at 18z with no interest from the others, then I agree that You and I are cooked for this one.

I dropped from 12.0" to 7.5" Kuchera with the GFS family from 7 am - 1 pm. This rate of fall needs to slow down for the 18z run.

Important elements may not model coalesce until 12z Friday.

4 this morning with 1 mph breeze. Was 7 with 12mph winds yesterday morning.

At 10:1 it would have been 21 inches for my backyd.

Sorry, I don't have records of the NAM

I melted the snow and sleet in my large Tru-Check rain gauge. 2.10 inches Saturday/Sunday. The Canadian was the winner at 2.01 inches. The GFS said 1.90" and the EURO said 1.60".

3 hrs. later, I'd say that a very significant change occurred with the 12z GFS

Icon trying to shift west with trough

Its not over. There are 12 more more model runs between now and Friday. I can guarantee that significant changes await. They may be east and they may be west, or northwest.

If the 06 GFS verifies (it won't).... Bob Chill would have snow half way up to his knees, While I settle for 3 or 4 inches............ That's ok, I'm not greedy.

I'm talking about a coastal position because of the trough evolving to a negative tilt.

Instead of 150 miles southeast of Hatteras, it should be on the coast at Morehead City.

Thanks Bob!! Your input is always treasured!!!!! I wish you could or would give your synopsis on the weather every day during maybe mid afternoon after digesting the 12z runs. I always learn from your laid back presentation.

Hey Bob! Good to here from you. I always admire your common sense knowledge. You're guidance is well taken. 2 questions It seems that the Euro deterministic has a difficult time differentiating between sleet and freezing rain. There was a large swath of significant freezing rain southwest/northeast across western Va.. I posted Sunday morning that I didn't buy this because 925 temperatures were too cold. In fact, freezing rain was minimal. Thoughts? Last, the AI ens. doubled the received amount of snow on December 8. It nearly tripled the amount received for Augusta County last weekend. Thoughts?

I have records on the models that go back a week. This is not nowcasting day of event. 18z last Tuesday 1-20 found the GFS giving Augusta 3.1". 18z 1-20 Euro gave Augusta 13.2"

You and I can agree to disagree and be friends. The GFS was closer at 12z Saturday for Augusta at 5.9". The Euro was 6.8" I didn't record the NAM but suspect it was closest.

I'm not at all surprised at the 12z Euro. I posted at 7 am that I was not enthusiastic about the EURO. But, the GEM, GEPS, GEFS and GFS all shifted toward snow. I'm honestly not enthralled with the deterministic Euro after it insisted run after run last weekend that I would receive .80 - .90" of freezing rain. I received .01" freezing rain. Total failure. And, the Euro AI ensemble gave me 15.5" to 16.5" of snow for 24 hrs. pre event Friday/Saturday. I received 3 inches of snow and 3 inches of sleet. The Euro family needs improvement to regain credibility with anyone paying close attention.

Just talked to a friend who lives at 2700 ft near Big Meadows. She said she never received a flake of snow but a couple inches of sleet.