stormy

3.0 inches north side of Waynesboro. Got my driveway plowed out. Still flurries falling. 28 degrees.

Light snow has started at Staunton/Waynesboro with 30.3 degrees.

My 4 model blend increased from 1.6" at 8 am to 2.4" at 1 pm.................... I will predict 2 - 4 inches for Augusta in my newsletter a little later, with snow developing 1 - 3 am. For D.C., my thoughts are .5" - 1.0" with flurries by 5 - 6 am.

Congratulations Terp.!!

Unfortunately, this map from the WPC says it all.

Yes, much of the east coast was wrecked.

Yes, 18z gives me 1.6" compared to 12z at .7"

I remember that Great Ash Wednesday storm.

We'll be close to a 50/50 but the trajectory of the HP is a little south of ideal at Ogdensburg.

One great reality is that 850 temps. should not be an issue on Friday.

Sunshine and 40 degrees at 1pm.

That's a nice bump from 3.7 to 8.8".

.20 zr and trace of sleet. Rds, minor to moderate. 32.1/31 The person who composed the AFD from Sterling this morning is about 12 hrs. slow with the threat on Friday. "The system may spread some very light precipitation on its northern side Friday night before pushing offshore on Sat." Under slept?? The Blacksburg AFD is spot on, "Next system moves in Friday morning, snow transition to wintry mix possible". That tracs the Euro.

Patience is a great virtue.

14.5 at 7:15.... Davis Vantage Vue

That eastward "severely misplaced" translating HP as you say, would not be misplaced with a 50/50 LP. For decades the 50/50 low has been a gold standard for a major winter storm because it will lock the cold air in by blocking eastward translation of western New England HP.

100% correct. Possible, but the 12-2 system has the deck stacked against it. No 50-50 low, no Lakes to New England H.P. as a cold air source. And of course, our long time drought pattern that no one fully understands is again an aggravating factor. The GFS dropped the QPF from 1.48" for Augusta at 06 11-27 to .60" at 06 11-28. I don't have enough fingers to count how many times this has happened during the past 4 months.

The amped shift is cooling the interior. The amped solution was lost yesterday at this time, warming everything. I dropped from 13 inches white stuff to .60" fr at 12z yesterday. Will we lose it again?

The GFS is now seeing a colder solution for Tuesday, surface and aloft.

I haven't received any measurable rain yet. That 3-5" snow here would have required a vivid imagination!

Many times my first acc. snow has been around Dec. 5.

As a matter of fact, I received an additional 2.5 inches of snow on Feb.1 Additional 1 inch on Feb. 2 with a high of 30. The next 5 days were cold with low to mid 30's for highs. A thaw in week 2 with temps. creeping into the low 40's. Another 10 inches of snow on Feb. 24 with a high of 27. 1966 was a snowy year with 76 inches recorded.

This should help some who are whining over Christmas. Christmas of 1965, I recorded a high of 65 degrees. January of 1966, I received 36 inches of snow..............................

Thank You! I could have had similar input for my location but you beat me to it. My predicted high for the 18th 24 hrs prior at 6 am 11-17 for my newsletter was 43. I missed it by 2 degrees 24 hrs prior. The NWS at Sterling missed it by 9 degrees, 12 hrs. prior and in real time because of buying in to model error. The models almost always scour the cold from entrenched CAD out of valleys too quickly on a southeast or east breeze for Augusta. The Sterling forecaster obviously didn't understand or consider this on Tuesday even after midday red flags.

How about models being off 10 degrees for thermal highs in 12 hours. Is that acceptable???