stormy
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Everything posted by stormy
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ZR with the ECMWF really doesn't mean a lot. It forecasted .86" a week ago and I received .05" LOL
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Run to run consistency can be important. I would feel better if the op Euro gave some support but as explained earlier today, tremendous differences exit between AI and physics based models. I would expect a general coming together within a few days. Unusual unpredictability also exists IMO because some rather strong signals suggest that we may be approaching a pattern change after persistent cold since late December.
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Welcome to the board!! Don't lose any sleep over others trying to put you down!. You will learn a lot by reading a lot but you also have the right to post and occasionally make a mistake. Nobody is always perfect.
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Thanks for this coherent explanation! It is appreciated.
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The GFS signaled the trend with the 18z run when QP dropped significantly over Virginia. After 18z, I was expecting 00z to be feast or famine. Famine rules the roost.
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I'm not beating any drum, but I am happy that you agree with what I have posted about more than once. I don't trust the ensemble at all. The deterministic side may be ok.
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You are exactly right........... A week to go, we could have a cat 5 Hurricane. I have been following models for 20 years and never can I remember 6 hours like today. Are the models changing or are the pattern repetitions changing???
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You know, after today, I'm inclined to agree with you! I cannot ever remember a 6 hr. period like today. But, even more astounding is the AI coming back to snow. Something crazy going on! Maybe JI has a handle on it?
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The model world has succumbed into KAOS during the past 6 hrs..................... Any semblance of run to run consistency has disappeared.
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EURO is dry as a gourd. This is no improvement over the GFS.
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The AI gives birth last Tuesday, loses interest and cancels. Now, brings it back today and gives Augusta, 4 inches of snow on the 15th. I want to see the old time EURO in a few minutes.
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A Richter Scale 9 quake with the GEM and GFS!!!!!!! Hopefully, the EURO will restore some sanity.
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Its all about TRACK this morning. IMO, the EURO erodes the wedge too quickly on the 14th.
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18z GFS Way North
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Is it possible that the pattern is beginning to feel the warming ENSO?
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The model which started this train has lost interest. Since the 12z ensembles are in, my 7 model blend has dropped to 5.15".
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My 3 model blend from the big 3 is 9 inches out here in Augusta. 12 from the Euro and GEM make up for the 3 from the stingy GFS. QP is 1.90" Euro, 1.35" GEM and .35" GFS Kuchera no good this time around.
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I don't waste my time trolling. Just because I stepped on your toes after your instigation , you are still sore. Chill out man. Life is too short for that kind of crap.
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I am happy where we stand after the 12z GFS and GEM!! The GFS really didn't do anything with a heavy dump on Augusta this morning because it was only 1 out of 3. Now, we have 2 out of 3 liking a dump of snow on Va., 14 and 15 . 2 out of 3 is much better than 1 out of 3, even if the Euro comes in dry.
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IMO, this model has no credibility anymore, because of occasional unpredictable occurrence of highly inflated totals. It gave me 12" for 3.5" on December 8 a few days ahead of event. Jan. 20, it gave me 16.5" for 6" on Jan. 25.
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Yes, "next weekend still has potential" though the father AI has lost interest. EPS, GEFS and GEPS are all interested.................. GFS Op will last about 4 more hrs..
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We will have a snow shower at 10:37 pm that will deposit .06" of nothing.
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The Euro AI deterministic leads the way then drops it! That was a crazy 06z call by the AI anyway. I don't receive 11 inches of snow with a primary over Toledo! The deterministic GFS and EURO pick it up at 12z. I like the EURO solution. 10 inches of snow with a primary to my south is much better than 11" with a primary 300 miles northwest.
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The H5 charts may be fine but the ECMWF AI ens often grossly inflates the snowfall expectations. Gave me 16.5 inches last week and I received 6. On Dec. 8 it gave me 12 and I received 3.5".
