stormy

This has about a 1% verification probability, especially southwestern portions

The 2 historically closest analogs for 26-27 are 97 - 98 and 15 - 16 at approx +2.2. They were both wet but snowfall was wild!! 97 - 98 was a western highlands snow delight with nearly 40 inches at Staunton/Blacksburg. Huge disappointment at Winchester and D.C. with less than 1 inch. 15 - 16 found 26 inches at my place, Winchester 32 and D.C. 22. More than +2.0 is highly favored to be wet but correct AO and NAO blocking is important to get cold air into the mix. We just can't know at this time. We should know by March 15.

I felt 3 sprinkles about 9. Nothing since.

Raindrop is an excellent quick reference. I have been using it for probably 6 months. This radar indicated output can sometimes be a little too heavy compared to actual gauge measurement. My radar indicated data is probably different than yours, because my scan is near 13000 ft. I often compare radar vs. gauge measurement.

The U.S. Drought Monitor has been correcting weekly recently, gradually eliminating the Extreme Drought category in Virginia. This mornings update completely removes Extreme Drought from Augusta County. The 9 am version puts most of Augusta County in Severe Drought, with Moderate Drought west of Churchville and near Harriston. This is the first time in 2 months that the Monitor has been close to correct.

I had 35 mph winds and .34" rain in Augusta. Rain at last!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I was afraid of Of the Charlottesville mandate on heavy rainfall this afternoon. It seems to have broken. Southwest of Charlottesville has received over a foot of rain in recent weeks, while 15 miles away suffers serious Drought.

Thanks Bro! I'll report this in my Newsletter. I've had 3.07 since July 1. Last year I had 7. 17" in July.

Charlottesville getting hammered again. 6 - 8 inches of rain in less than a week.

Montiviola about 10 miles southwest of Crozet reports 1.19" since noon. The east of the Blue Ridge daily monsoon continues while west of the B.R. a very serious drought situation gets worse by the day.

Make that 6 inches in Charlottesville the first 6 days of August

Congratulations!! I got a grand total of .02" for Thursday, August 6................. .30" total for the first 6 days of August. Where's the rain??? At Charlottesville. Over 4 inches for the first 6 days of August.

The first 5 days of August only produced .28" of rain. The GFAF model gives Waynesboro a 55% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon between 3 - 6.

Only .08 rain last night. DROUGHT is getting worse. Significant rain ran north, east of BR again. GRAF model says maybe another .10 later today.

Yesterday was the 3rd total failure for this summer with a Flood Watch for the 81 corridor. This is becoming embarrassing for NOAA. Augusta is the second largest county in Virginia. A 9 station sample averaged .33" for Augusta Yesterday. The heavy rain was from southeasterly up-slope on the eastern flank of the Blue Ridge. Charlottesville 2.51, Ruckersville 1.94", Sperryville 1.53, Batesville 2.20", Crozet 1.29, Wintergreen on the eastern face of the Blue Ridge, 1.74". The Flood Watch should have been limited to counties east of the Blue Ridge. A Flood Watch is the Kiss Of Death for the Valley.

Regarding the Sunday - Wed potential, the physics based models have been playing hopscotch. The AI models have been amazingly consistent with a recent uptick in expectations. AI and AI ens have scored Augusta with a blend of 1.20" since 12z Thursday. The latest run has increased to 1.40".

51.6 this morning. Depth, orientation and slow movement of ULL over OV in opposition to HP off the coast will determine who gets how much rain from Sunday - Tuesday. We need to start August as a wet month! I have only received 62% of normal for July.

Historically, there are wet Nino summers and historically there are dry Nino summers. Strong Nino's (greater than =1.0) almost always create a cold season robust subtropical jet which usually favors a wet cold season (mid October through February.) Richmond has a higher probability of a wet winter than Staunton or Winchester, 80/60. D.C. comes in at about 70%.

I wish today's weather could linger into September before beginning to cool down a little. Cloudy and 72 with a southerly breeze at 4.

57 and cloudy this morning. No radiational cooling.

65 with a northeast breeze 5 - 15. Feels like fall! Spruce Knob, 46.

I feel your pain.

.70" at my place. Weyers Cave 1.03"

Human forecasters act as the ultimate decision-makers in formulating a forecast. AI and advanced computer modeling are certainly incorporated into the process but humans provide oversight to any and all forecasts.

The luck of the draw also dealt me a losing hand yesterday but this was a model loser since Thursday, therefore, I was not surprised. NWS high probs. really don't count anymore. Monterey received .92" and Marlinton W.Va. got 1.59".