PhiEaglesfan712

The problem with 2008-09 is that I don't see a flip to a strong el nino next year. I think 2021-22, which remained a la nina, looks like the better analog.

Why? Is it because there is no record warmth to be found this winter?

I think the 2nd half of Jan and 1st half of Feb are going to be more active, in terms of precipitation. I get a feeling one of these periods will be above normal temperatures and the other below normal temperatures. The BN portion will give us the snowy period, and the AN portion the rainy. The next 7-10 days following the 1/6 snowstorm will be cold and dry.

The NOAA ONI for OND is -0.4; the SON ONI has been revised from -0.2 to -0.3 The OND RONI comes in at -0.92 Also, December PDO comes in at -2.08, a +1.06 jump from November's -3.14

13-14 was another one, and that was an ENSO neutral season.

Kenny Pickett has always been an average to below average quarterback: https://x.com/NoFlagsFilm/status/1874531661259641030

I'm hoping the very warm pattern starts around mid-month, rather than in February. At least if the warm pattern starts in mid-January, there is still time to get a cold pattern on the back end of winter. If the warm pattern starts in February, then the winter is basically cooked.

Amazing how immediately after those storms, the snow just shut off. We got a smaller event here on 2/26/2010, but places south, like Baltimore and Wash DC, got shut out on that one. Things turned warmer in March, and by the first week of April, it felt like summer.

I hope you mean 2021-22 and 2018-19, and not 2022-23 and 2019-20. At least the former two, while not the best, had some snow. The latter two had less than one inch of snow, and we don't need another one of that.

Much has been made about the 9 straight above average winters, but the last real cold summer was in 2009. I know 2014 and 2023 were technically below average, but even those were by a few tenths of a degree. Not to mention, 2023 only finished below average because of the coldest June since 1985. Replace June with September, and JAS 2023 finishes above the JJA average. So, 2014 is the only year in the last 14 that didn't have a 3-month period that finished above the summer average, and that was by 0.2 degree.

Our last region-wide warning event was the January 2016 snowstorm, correct? I know it we didn't get it in 2021 (the coast was outside of the warning zone) or 2022 (north and west of PHL was outside of the warning zone).

Better to have the regression during the 2nd half of January than in February. Because if the pattern changes in February, many times it never really comes back. 1977, 2010, and 2011 are all good examples.

This is actually an improvement from some of the things this user posted during the fall. As recently as November 16, this user was posting this: Record warmth looks likely to start December

I'm not surprised. I see January 17-31 being warmer than average and February 1-14 colder.

It depends who plays quarterback for the Eagles on Sunday. If it's Kenny, then sorry, no snow. However, if it's Jalen or Tanner, then we will get a snowstorm on Monday.

Not similar at all. For one, 1976-77 was an el nino, and when the -PDO flipped to +PDO. Secondly, the summer of 1976 was a frontloaded summer, reaching its highest temperature in mid-April and most of its 90-degree days were by June 30. Signs of a record cold season were already there by the end of summer. The record cold started in October 1976 and continued through January 1977. Soon thereafter, the pattern flipped, with March 1977 being very warm, which would continue throughout the spring.

To be fair, Tanner McKee is a way better quarterback than Kenny Pickett. I don't know what people see in Pickett, but he's never been anything special.

It hasn't snowed on December 29 in a long time. I know it hasn't since at least 1992, when my sister was born. The closest was in 2000, when it snowed on December 30. (The Eagles won a playoff game at the Vet, in the snow, the following day. Hey, remember when the playoff games were in December?) I'll be at the Eagles game today, no snow again.

2018 wasn't even that cold. The first week was, but the last few were warmer than normal. 2009 was colder than 2018. Cold la nina Januarys since 1980: 1984 26.2 -6.1 1985 27.3 -5.0 1996 30.2 -2.1 2009 29.0 -3.3 2011 29.3 -3.6 2018 and 2022 were near normal: 2018 32.8 -0.1 2022 32.4 -0.5

I'm hoping this early January cold spell is short and a relaxation happens during the 2nd half of the month. I'd rather have that than cold all January and a relaxation in February because that's almost always a kiss of death for the winter.

That would make 2021-22 probably the best fit ONI/RONI/MEI analog. That was the year the ONI started to drift apart from the RONI and MEI.

I actually think the below normal temperatures for the 1/4 to 1/17 period will be contained to south of DCA. North of DCA, I think we'll see near normal temperatures for that period, and well above average temperatures for the last 2 weeks of January.

Spoiler alert: The next 3 months brings epic cold and snowfall. It will be the snowiest season until 1996, and you won't get a January-March this cold in the next 35 years.

The closest analogs are 05-06, 08-09, and 21-22. Two of these (2006 and 2009) flipped to el nino the following year (with one, 09-10, being a strong el nino), while the third (2022) stayed a la nina. Oddly enough, the two that flipped to el nino produced strong la ninas in year 2, while the one that stayed a la nina flipped to a strong el nino in year 2. So I guess whatever ENSO state we have in 2025-26, we'll have the reverse in 2026-27 (and likely a strong event).

Not necessarily. The late season la ninas in 2006 and 2009 went straight to el nino the following year, with the latter (2009-10) being a strong el nino. Although, each case produced a strong la nina in the second year following (2007-08 and 2010-11). On the flip side, the late season la nina in 2022 continued into 2022-23, but went strong el nino during the 2nd year following. My guess is that the 2022 scenario is more likely, but history favors 2026-27 having the opposite ENSO (in extreme strength) of 2025-26.