smokeybandit
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Everything posted by smokeybandit
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It's the worst run yet for my back yard. Literally no snow through sunday 0z
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The old GFS is just mailing it in knowing it's having its desk and red stapler moved to the basement next week while GFS Para gets promoted.
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8-12:1 depending on elevation maybe? Which is actually pretty low for out here where 20:1 isn't uncommon.
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NAM just doesn't have any moisture. 12z HRRR is solid though
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" One bias that models typically have in these types of setups is to position the center of the surface cyclone too far north. " Sweet
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Might be wise to ignore the operational GFS at this point
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GFS Para is much more in line with other models
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0z GFS basically gives no precip at all, rain or snow, east of 25
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NAM doesn't seem overly impressed by the storm through Saturday.
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Denver is your best bet to fly into, which is on the NE side of the city. That said you don't want to be on the NE side of the city for a snow storm chase, so take the drive over to Boulder.
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Wow, GFS para is much colder east of I-25. Much more snow.
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A lot of that is probably rain.
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GFS just dropped me from 20" down to 10" from 12z. For a model that was steadfast for a long time, it's all over the place now.
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I'm still on the losing end (relatively speaking) of the sharp QPF cutoff.
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NWS already dropping their amounts east of I-25 even as the Euro holds serve and the GFS ticks south again
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NWS doesn't seem to buy into the GFS hot air
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Areas the GFS had getting 40" of snow it now wants to give almost all rain to.
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At this rate you'll have to go to Wyoming to see the good stuff.
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Suddenly I want to hug the Euro and not the GFS with its sharp cutoff east of 25
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GFS now has 5 straight runs with a 40" swath. I still can't see that coming close to verifying but gotta give the model credit for consistency.
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Heavier solutions, indeed. Gotta love the GFS
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At least on the snowbelt the towns are prepared. In Central MD, not so much.
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18z GFS is even more insane than 12z. Obviously that'll never happen but it's fun to watch. Then again those kind of totals are far into the danger zone for many people. My biggest storm as an adult was in MD in 2010. We had two 20"+ storms within a week. It was nuts. The roof was creaking and I ran out of places to put the shoveled snow. It took a week to even get the neighborhood plowed so neighbors dug a path out to the main road.
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My goodness, GFS.
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GFS with a ton of 20" too
