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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. Extreme skepticism should have been applied when a winter with zero cold air and zero snowcover across the nation is suddenly expected to turn cold/snowy for a month....
  2. You think it's bad here-RIC has averaged 2.8 inches of snow per season the last 5 yrs....
  3. Yep-you'd normally have temps in the 20's this time of year given the source region-instead it's 35-40
  4. Take a look at the visible satellite in the midwest and lower Canada-almost no snowcover which just makes it warmer
  5. For sure there will be a band of subsidence with this setup
  6. Certainly possible-better airmass with the lower DP's and a nighttime event.
  7. ^^^ off the charts warm!
  8. Gets tough by then, but stranger things have happened. N and W still in the game til the end of March as well.
  9. that's why most long range guidance should be taken with a grain of salt good or bad its subject to wild changes...
  10. the last 8-9 yrs have been an absolute blowtorch overall
  11. 2012 was great once we all accepted it wasn't coming. Morch had a couple days in the 80's here and the month as a whole was warm sunny and dry. I'll take it again
  12. Definitely a big takeaway...mild/snowless winters don't usually turn cold/snowy. (exceptions like 06-07 do exist) So had to be skeptical of calls of a big pattern from mid Feb to mid March-in reality it will be a window of about 10-12 days like the one in January.
  13. Just have to hope we don't get late March/early April onshore flow garbage...
  14. Big part of the reason cold was lacking this year....
  15. There's little to no snowcover over the midwest and great lakes region too-so any "cold air" will modify bigly not to mention ice free great lakes
  16. All in cycles too...70's to 90's were not great, 2000-2018 was great....2019-? crap
  17. yep-fast flow might be our final nail. if it comes down to that it will be 2 brief intervals of cold/snow chances in an incredibly warm winter.
  18. Once we got to Mid Jan after a 45 day torch and that "good pattern" was reduced to 8 days before yet another long torch it was over. Rare for ratter winters to suddenly turn good if the worm doesn't turn by the end of January.
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