Brian5671

4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Hurricane models still show alot of rain for the area while the other models don't show alot.

Given that's it's not really all that tropical by the time it gets here, I'd go with the regular models.   3K nam is what most show-an area in the middle that does not get all that much relatively speaking

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Is it really s screw zone after all the rain we’ve had?  More like hitting the jackpot if it happens IMO

trust me after 12 plus inches here in the last few weeks, I'm rooting for a miss locally

only thing differentiating today from summer is the 6:25 sunset instead of 8:25

models showing a screw zone for rains N and W of NYC-euro, nam and GFS all show it to some degree

1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

Off topic, but man oh man is Michael a beast. That radar presentation is beautiful. 

Prayers for all of those down there and any on this board who have family there. 

going to be a disaster of great proportions there....145mph and still strengthening...

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Models are slightly more northwest with the remnants of Michael for our area. We will still see some rain but the question is how much ?

euro is dry for most less than a half inch and it's mostly from the cold front-the direct impacts of the storm are well south and east....

2 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

Does such a wet pattern from summer into fall have any correlation with any particular winter pattern with high soil moisture in place? 

lot of mud

some breaks of sun here....

large area of clearing over LI and the Western Atlantic-maybe that moves north as the warm front does...

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

The root was alive but I was done with that tree by then. Sold the root to my gardener for $20. Very frustrating tree to maintain. Grows like hell in the summer but doesn’t leaf out until June. Every winter I’ve had parts of the tree die and last winter killed everything above grade

same deal here I ripped it out-it's a southern plant for a reason-we're too cold most winters outside of 01-02 type deals

12 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Too early to tell. 12z run of GGEM that just came out has it going right over us thursday late afternoon and early evening. Good batch of very heavy rain for us on the GGEM.

GGEM is one of the worst performing models especially on tropical systems

Just now, Snow88 said:

Meh all the models will change in the upcoming days

it will come down to the timing of the cold front-any slower and it will come further north...

52 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Looks like Michael might dump alot of rain on the area .

Euro is fairly far south with the rains...

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Not really. Here it's been misting or drizzling constantly since yesterday

we had some drizzle over night but both days have been dry so far....even seeing some breaks of sun here now...Wow it's humid though, feels like August.

1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said:

The amount of sun that was forecast had most believing nice weather was coming.   Instead constant clouds and mugginess

at least it's been dry-but agree bad forecast from Friday which had partly sunny both days

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

There are always some trees that turn very early. Whether it's due to soil chemistry or something else I don't know but, there are a few trees that change early every year by me and it's always the same trees or at least the same group of trees.

sometimes it's diseased or stressed trees that go early

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Wasn't last October record warm?

 

first half was a dry blowtorch-turned cooler/wetter 2nd half of month

a couple of average days and then back to the torch....The run of dry weekends continues which is great

4 hours ago, psv88 said:

What the hell happened to the dry week? Have an outdoor meeting at 7 tonight and now it looks like rain. WTF

it's dying as it moves SE

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Wouldn't be shocked to see mid to upper 80s, gfs is showing that but it seems to run a bit warm. 

time to reopen the pool!

18 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

This has been the pattern with every GFS run this fall. BN air comes blasting in between 240 and 280 on virtually every run, but never comes any closer than 240.

 

That being said, the OP GFS, FV3 and GEFS have all been consistent over the past few days with a real cooldown starting on Sunday the 12th. If that can hold up over the next few days I'll start getting my hopes up.

Reminds me of the winter of 01-02 and 11-12 the cold air was always 10 days away-hope that's not a bad sign for this year....

4 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The RWTT still does not show a BN period till the second week of Nov.    We will be lucky to get two BN days through the 18th. on the most optimistic output intrepretation.

Given the WAR/SST anomolies, I would buy into that....

19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The GFS shows way above normal temperature anomalies overhead more or less the entire run thanks to the mega ridge. 

going to be some ridiculous postive deparatures by 10/15

3 minutes ago, doncat said:

Much like last year with the warm Oct...Was followed around Nov 10th with record early season cold, which took care of the remaining foliage quickly.

I had frozen green leaves on the trees-an odd sight for sure.

23 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

I just love this cool, crisp October weather.

with 99% of the leaves still green