Brian5671

great trends last few days, let's hope for a nice period of cold and hopefully some storms

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The crazy high departures almost makes it more likely that we'll flip given the extreme climate we're in. 

remember 06-07-tropical to freezer in a week and it stayed that way.

1 minute ago, CIK62 said:

Something better happen and fast around here---or NYC will be known as Global Warming Capital.      GFSx for the next 6 days is  +17 at 49degs.  [Back to Nov. 12, in other words]    Even using day 7, which it claims will be the start of the colder period, the average T is still 47degs., or +15.

I got to 37* briefly today, at 3:30pm.     Felt like it was a 'March  style' 37 too, while strolling around.    Tomorrow at this time it will be 15degs. warmer than that.

the cool down is starting to look legit, however there will be a crazy MTD +++ departure by 1/15.   Some will obviously get erased depending on the extent of the pattern change,.

3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Yeah I remember in late January 2011 JB screaming "Winter in the Eastern US is over AS WE KNOW EET!" 

turned out it was-I think we had 3-4 inches after the pattern broke down in early February....it never reloaded, just became warm and dry which was a god send with 50 inches of snow on the ground....imagine if a bunch of cutters had set up ala Jan 96?

1 minute ago, PB-99 said:

 

Thought you were working ? 

Union break

wonder if someone could put up a +35 this weekend?   Saturday Nightime lows alone are close to record daytime highs

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Based on how the pattern has been progressing since November, just my opinion, I have a hard time believing that we lock in a real cold, blocked up pattern for 6 weeks straight (2/1 - 3/15). Could I be wrong? Yep and stranger things have happened but I definitely would not bet on such a scenario happening given where we just came from

Always true, however there is history, 06-07 when from blowtorch to freezer for the 2nd half.  89-90 was freezer to blowtorch.    So it's on the table.   But I agree, there's nothing at present to show that.

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like I was too slow with my thoughts on the colder regime. Post 1/20 looks good for colder and yea, assuming the models are correct and the MJO propagates into phase 8 come 2/1 or thereabouts, I think the question then becomes is this a “locked in” (all of February to mid-March 40+ day) change to colder and blocked or is it back to a mild regime, a la the Euro weeklies? 

Weeklies have been horrid last 2 years, so I would toss them even if it showed a 95-96 pattern.   Last year it showed that every run for the LR and it never came.

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GEFS has one of the most amplified  phase 4-7 transits that we have seen in January. Gets over to phase 7 around January 20th. So a more -EPO gradient  pattern potentially emerging between the 20th and 24th. Would probably be around February 1st that the MJO gets closer to phase 8.
 

 

I would think we could see a crazy storm (liquid or frozen) somewhere with this???

actually feels like January with a low of 19 here.   Upton going for 62 here Sunday!

1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

It is hard to get less interesting than what we currently have.  We hope for interesting times ahead. 

We could see a rare January thunderstorm this weekend, we'll have to settle for that, but agree, very boring pattern going back to mid-December or so.

33 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Not a single post about the upcoming pattern in over 3 hours. EPS looks  good starting around day 8 and only getting better. Negative EPO positive PNA showing up later in the Run. I guess if a South East Ridge was going to pop in the long range or the mjo was going into the warm phases they'll be post after post here.every other sub-forum is buzzing with optimism except here. 

Gee maybe people have to work

Just now, bluewave said:

Believe you? I have been saying that the EPS was probably too weak going into phase 6. So we probably get a 6 looking composite around the 17-24th. That is a transition phase with lingering influences from 5 with the -PNA. If we go phase 7 last week of January, then we get improvements in the EPO and PNA. But the real prize people are hoping for would be getting to 8 first week of February. Would match our recent backloaded winters theme. Hopefully, this works out.

A trip through 7/8/1/2 would be the holy grail-still in lala land though but better trend last night.

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

31F for our “cold” morning

Just killed a mosquito in my kitchen

If that doesnt sum up this winter...I dont know what does

Saw an article that great lakes ice cover trails even last year...LOL.    Stores have stocks of ice melt, snowblowers, sleds that are just sitting there.   On the bright side Jan heating bills will be lower especially those with Nat Gas

white rain here, 33

2 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Like what? What other tools are you using to debate here? This back and forth isnt going to change anyone's minds to begin with, but lets at least try to go with something other than “cuz i think it will”.

Polar vortex-strong

Atlantic blocking-nowhere to be found

Pacific blocking-neutral to slight

PNA-negative

MJO-warm phases

-

model runs are only part of the package-if they are getting something noted above wrong the error only gets worse as one heads further out...

what I see above is not exactly what I want to see for a prolonged wintry stretch (not just temps, but snow/ice) in our area

I'll give an example-several days ago models had an ice storm for Cleveland this weekend.   Now they have thunderstorms and record warmth this weekend.  SE ridge way under modeled so everything will end up further N and W and thus warmer for many

3 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

Like what ?

Magic 8 ball ? 

PM me tonight`s powerball #`s pls 

hey if we just went by the models we would not need meterologists to intepret them....hey you do remember last year right-that magic pattern was 10-12 days out the whole season...how did that work out?

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I have no clue what some people on here are seeing. Either they dont look at the models or they are trolling.

you have to look at more than the models.  Surely you know that by now.   They're a tool.   Part of a package.   Just b/c a day 10 prog says x or y, that's certainly not always the end result.

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, I was confused as to why it was being called a good pattern. It’s strong -PNA/RNA, +AO, +NAO, neutral EPO 

and a strong PV to boot.  Not exactly the stuff of big winters around here...Great pattern for the Rocky Mt Ski resorts

Going to need a monster -EPO to overcome the other garbage

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Yes but that was a pattern that was bad for the coast.  It was good for areas to the far northwest of us.

 

same sensible weather as last winter-cutters and inland runners....

2 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

There`s no argument, the guidance is quicker now.

it remains 11 days away...how good has guidance been 11-15 days?   I'd like to see this move up to  day 6-8

PV getting stronger-never good.

3 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

The EPS and GEPS say 10/11 +  Where are you seeing " weeks " 

the main argument there is whether the models are rushing the pattern change-we've seen before where it ends up being later.   We're still 10 days away, if this gets to day 7 I'm more inclined to jump on board

Just now, bluewave said:

That is an outright false statement. The actual pattern is the only thing that matters. Being biased cold or warm just degrades the discussion. Just get out of the way and let the actual pattern speak for itself.

yeah I don't get that either.   Pattern's been warm for 2 years so that makes you a "warmnista"