Brian5671

Front moving through shortly-one last burst of rain here  55 degrees

54 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I’m not sure how many time it needs to be said that the rmm plots have a bias for cod at the end. Yet, he continues to rip and read them while they correct in front of him. This will be going 7-8-1-2. Yes, it will probably be muted in the colder phases as it’s not going to have strong amplitude like the warm phases. 
 

Even if that plot was to be correct, it would be bias cold because the mjo wave is closer to the cold phases.

MJO has also been correcting longer and stronger into 7 and now 8....Interesting piece on the bias to the COD at the end of the run I never knew that

Just now, Allsnow said:

We don’t need some uber -nao to trigger all the cold dry folks 

imagine that-we get a crazy -NAO and NC and VA get the snow...I think heads would pop off here if that happened...LOL

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I call a few inches a huge win. 

Amen, we've only had an inch at a time this winter so a few inches would be like a HECS.  LOL.    Currently partly sunny here and 62.   We've had colder days in April!

5 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Anybody else think we bust high today?

Look at that sun!

Yep-it's out here too.  Tomorrow will have the same possibility.

5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Widespread, but paltry for a lot of us in this subforum....

Yep-favored the coast for sure-had about 15-16 inches here in CT.

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

KU/benchmark tracks don’t grow on trees. We have been extremely lucky since 2009. Many on the coast have become spoiled With the amount of snow that have had. It’s no shock that we have regressed to the mean. The last area wide snowstorm was definitely 2016. We are obviously over due now. 

early Jan 2018 storm was widespread I believe-that came at the end of a bitter cold 10 day outbreak-was all snow I think

Just now, bluewave said:

It wasn’t that long ago. We had plenty of benchmark storm tracks with double digit snowfall at the coast right through March 2018. Last winter we started with the cutter and hugger storm tracks where interior sections had the heaviest amounts. 

The early March snow here last year (2019) was all snow and I'm on the coast (I know it wasn't further south)

2 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I’m trying to figure out about this. If it snows 3 inches but then rains an inch followed by 60s, would you still like that? I never got the whole I love snow for snows’ sake. If it is going to snow I want it to stay around awhile and be pretty and usable. I hate winters like this with a passion. I want snow on the ground and I want it to stay. It means nothing if it snows and is gone. I’d rather live in Florida and travel a few times a year to Vermont or Colorado and be guaranteed snow and nice days. Perhaps I’m just getting grumpy in my older age, but snow makes everything so bright and nice. I hate the fog, misty type days. 

Anyone have cloud cover anomalies? I read somewhere that both 2018 and 2019 ended well above normal for cloud cover. 

you're definitely in the wrong place-we rarely keep snow on the ground for more than a couple of days-a week is big.

great trends last few days, let's hope for a nice period of cold and hopefully some storms

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The crazy high departures almost makes it more likely that we'll flip given the extreme climate we're in. 

remember 06-07-tropical to freezer in a week and it stayed that way.

1 minute ago, CIK62 said:

Something better happen and fast around here---or NYC will be known as Global Warming Capital.      GFSx for the next 6 days is  +17 at 49degs.  [Back to Nov. 12, in other words]    Even using day 7, which it claims will be the start of the colder period, the average T is still 47degs., or +15.

I got to 37* briefly today, at 3:30pm.     Felt like it was a 'March  style' 37 too, while strolling around.    Tomorrow at this time it will be 15degs. warmer than that.

the cool down is starting to look legit, however there will be a crazy MTD +++ departure by 1/15.   Some will obviously get erased depending on the extent of the pattern change,.

3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Yeah I remember in late January 2011 JB screaming "Winter in the Eastern US is over AS WE KNOW EET!" 

turned out it was-I think we had 3-4 inches after the pattern broke down in early February....it never reloaded, just became warm and dry which was a god send with 50 inches of snow on the ground....imagine if a bunch of cutters had set up ala Jan 96?

1 minute ago, PB-99 said:

 

Thought you were working ? 

Union break

wonder if someone could put up a +35 this weekend?   Saturday Nightime lows alone are close to record daytime highs

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Based on how the pattern has been progressing since November, just my opinion, I have a hard time believing that we lock in a real cold, blocked up pattern for 6 weeks straight (2/1 - 3/15). Could I be wrong? Yep and stranger things have happened but I definitely would not bet on such a scenario happening given where we just came from

Always true, however there is history, 06-07 when from blowtorch to freezer for the 2nd half.  89-90 was freezer to blowtorch.    So it's on the table.   But I agree, there's nothing at present to show that.

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like I was too slow with my thoughts on the colder regime. Post 1/20 looks good for colder and yea, assuming the models are correct and the MJO propagates into phase 8 come 2/1 or thereabouts, I think the question then becomes is this a “locked in” (all of February to mid-March 40+ day) change to colder and blocked or is it back to a mild regime, a la the Euro weeklies? 

Weeklies have been horrid last 2 years, so I would toss them even if it showed a 95-96 pattern.   Last year it showed that every run for the LR and it never came.

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GEFS has one of the most amplified  phase 4-7 transits that we have seen in January. Gets over to phase 7 around January 20th. So a more -EPO gradient  pattern potentially emerging between the 20th and 24th. Would probably be around February 1st that the MJO gets closer to phase 8.
 

 

I would think we could see a crazy storm (liquid or frozen) somewhere with this???

actually feels like January with a low of 19 here.   Upton going for 62 here Sunday!

1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

It is hard to get less interesting than what we currently have.  We hope for interesting times ahead. 

We could see a rare January thunderstorm this weekend, we'll have to settle for that, but agree, very boring pattern going back to mid-December or so.

33 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Not a single post about the upcoming pattern in over 3 hours. EPS looks  good starting around day 8 and only getting better. Negative EPO positive PNA showing up later in the Run. I guess if a South East Ridge was going to pop in the long range or the mjo was going into the warm phases they'll be post after post here.every other sub-forum is buzzing with optimism except here. 

Gee maybe people have to work

Just now, bluewave said:

Believe you? I have been saying that the EPS was probably too weak going into phase 6. So we probably get a 6 looking composite around the 17-24th. That is a transition phase with lingering influences from 5 with the -PNA. If we go phase 7 last week of January, then we get improvements in the EPO and PNA. But the real prize people are hoping for would be getting to 8 first week of February. Would match our recent backloaded winters theme. Hopefully, this works out.

A trip through 7/8/1/2 would be the holy grail-still in lala land though but better trend last night.

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

31F for our “cold” morning

Just killed a mosquito in my kitchen

If that doesnt sum up this winter...I dont know what does

Saw an article that great lakes ice cover trails even last year...LOL.    Stores have stocks of ice melt, snowblowers, sleds that are just sitting there.   On the bright side Jan heating bills will be lower especially those with Nat Gas

white rain here, 33

2 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Like what? What other tools are you using to debate here? This back and forth isnt going to change anyone's minds to begin with, but lets at least try to go with something other than “cuz i think it will”.

Polar vortex-strong

Atlantic blocking-nowhere to be found

Pacific blocking-neutral to slight

PNA-negative

MJO-warm phases

-

model runs are only part of the package-if they are getting something noted above wrong the error only gets worse as one heads further out...

what I see above is not exactly what I want to see for a prolonged wintry stretch (not just temps, but snow/ice) in our area