Brian5671

IF NYC gets to 1/31 with 1.5 inches of snow that has to be among the all time lows for the first 2/3 of met winter

Just now, jm1220 said:

I’m flying out of JFK on Sat afternoon, so I’d prefer all or mainly rain. 

I'm going out of LGA Sunday morning-headed to CO to ski for a week-I'll get my fill of snow out there.

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We’re halfway through Met winter and NYC has under 3”. That’s well below average at this point-about one third of average in fact. By now Central Park should be at 8”. Islip is at 4.7” and should be at 8.8”. Bridgeport’s at 5.7” and should be at 9.2”. We still have a long way to go but it’s not whining to say it’s been a very lousy season so far. 

I have yet to take out a snow shovel or snow blower.   Big 5 gallon bucket of rock salt has been sitting in my garage untouched since Dec '18.    Feels like the 1980's have come back

2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

I never understood why anybody at the coast gets hyped for events like this. SWFE events without a true arctic airmass in place are pretty much non events for us coasties. 2-4 at best washed away by rain does nothing for me personally. It's been a winter of non events thus far.

Agree.  And it was not even a true arctic airmass.  Once this became slower and drier we were in trouble.  By the time precip gets here we are warmer with south winds

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Hopefully it does because this winter is getting tiring. 

close the shades for a week.  It's not worth losing sleep over.   More important things in life...

reminds me of a storm last year on this same weekend-trended warmer and warmer right up to the event-got a sloppy inch here and then it rained moderately all day

Stronger lows in the eastern Lakes won't work out here....I could see a mainly rain event if that trend continues

16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don. The way this winter has gone it would be fitting for the wave to die before 8.

I can't believe I am starring at my first back to back below average snowfall winter since 06/07 07/08

Even if so, what an amazing run, 12 years without a below normal couplet.   I had thought BDR was close to normal last year after the March snows brought us up but if we did finish below it was just below.

12 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The airmass before the storm is really cold

it's not purely arctic and winds off the relatively warm water will change it quick-I'd expect an inch or less right on the south coast of LI, NC and NJ coast unless something changes

6 minutes ago, uncle W said:

Feb 2008 had a 6" one and Feb 1993 a 4" one...they came a month later when the Ocean is colder...I remember 1972 being a nothing winter until the last week in January...then all hell broke loose but we missed out on the KU that came later in February...

sounds like Feb 89...although there was absolutely nothing before this storm-garbage winter and then a bust on a KU to end it....

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

I am selfishly hoping that look rolls through mid March

That would be great and then torch late March into April for a change....

GFS slower-turning into a Sat night event

-

looks like mainly rain epscially  city and south after a burst of snow up front

9 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

I believe the Canadian GEM just became the first model this season to show the mandatory sub-zero fantasy (equivalent to those HECS that never happen).    This for Thurs. 1/23 at -1.

The Euro is cold for that time as well, but not quite that cold.

Just now, PB-99 said:

 

Yes. 

Cool If we get a run through 7/8/1/2 we should really be in business here

2 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

Hearing the weeklies look like Feb 15.

 

Considering we are going into 7 / 8 / 1 / 2  ( All cold phases in the heart of winter ) , it`s very believable. 

Weeklies out this early?

2 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

Hey all.  I'll be in the Jersey City/NYC area this weekend visiting family.  Never been up there when it snowed!  Do a lot of things shut down when it snows, such as PATH train, stores, museums, etc..?  Keep in mind that I'm coming from a Raleigh, NC perspective when lots of things shut down if it snows.  

If this is the wrong place to post this, I apologize.  Thanks

agree with BX not much will close for this-you need a monster storm for that to be the case.

2 hours ago, PB-99 said:

 

Don`t be shocked if there`s a KU event inside the timeline that I have outlined. 

 

Great flips are usually accompanied with one. 

 

 

talk dirty to us!   Let's have it.   

One thing that helped us in November 2018 was that the snow came in like a wall, went from nothing to heavy snow in a matter of 30 minutes.   That setup always helps b/c by the time the warm midlevels arrive the bulk of the precip has fallen.   

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

4-8 thump for the area on the Gfs. It’s nice to see but keep expectations in check. Models have been horrible this winter and having a low in upstate ny isn’t ideal. It’s really all about that high pressure for the nyc metro. 

the other issue is that midlevel warmth usually comes in faster than modeled, I'd expect a quicker change to sleet as it transitions from snow to rain

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I guess the general public outside this forum will be happy with a lower heating bill. The period since December 23rd was the 2nd warmest on record.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Dec 23 to Jan 12	Missing Count
1	2007-01-12	45.2	0
2	2020-01-12	42.9	0
3	2016-01-12	42.4	0
4	1983-01-12	42.2	0
5	2006-01-12	42.1	0
-	1998-01-12	42.1	0

I actually turned off the heat here Saturday to Sunday-set it back on last night before we went to bed.    Amazing

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I suppose it's all relative.

Much colder today than this past freak of a weekend but still running about 10 degrees above normal today.

feels frigid out there at 38 degrees.   You know winter's been bad when that's the case.   Let's hope the weekend system works out.

Front moving through shortly-one last burst of rain here  55 degrees

54 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I’m not sure how many time it needs to be said that the rmm plots have a bias for cod at the end. Yet, he continues to rip and read them while they correct in front of him. This will be going 7-8-1-2. Yes, it will probably be muted in the colder phases as it’s not going to have strong amplitude like the warm phases. 
 

Even if that plot was to be correct, it would be bias cold because the mjo wave is closer to the cold phases.

MJO has also been correcting longer and stronger into 7 and now 8....Interesting piece on the bias to the COD at the end of the run I never knew that

Just now, Allsnow said:

We don’t need some uber -nao to trigger all the cold dry folks 

imagine that-we get a crazy -NAO and NC and VA get the snow...I think heads would pop off here if that happened...LOL

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I call a few inches a huge win. 

Amen, we've only had an inch at a time this winter so a few inches would be like a HECS.  LOL.    Currently partly sunny here and 62.   We've had colder days in April!