Brian5671

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

March probably wont have a historic snow storm, but hey anything in March will be better than how this December has been.

 

That's not saying much-most stations will end December with 0.0 for snow.

21 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The 30th has potential

Could see a 1-2 inch event then.  What’s decent here is that’s in the mid range now and not 10 days away... I’d be happy with an inch at this point.  

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

REMEMBER?

One year ago today, temps. went below 32*, and then stayed there for 14.5 days and nights, including a blizzard like snowstorm.

A mere memory is all we got for this same time frame now.

Incredible stretch of cold.  We had a 2 inch snow on 12/28 that lasted on the ground for a week!

Looks bleak in the snowfall dept next 7-10 days....GFS is all alone....amd it’s fairky mild through 1/1-1/2 time frame. December will finish at least +2 despite a bitter cold first 10 days of the month.

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

We had a couple of weeks of subfreezing temps at night and several days below freezing.

I dont know how anyone is seeing flies, bugs or plants alive.

 

As for the Dec/Nov swap, the problem is the climatology doesnt allow for a winter month-autumn month swap.

You are trading an warm early winter month for a cool late autumn month. We dont get much to show for it.

Not lost in all this warming (as others have pointed out) Dec, Feb, Sept and October seem to be flash points for warming.

Nov, Mar and Jun seem the least affected and prone to BN departures.

Why is that? That is the big question

60-90 day warmth/cold swaps-if you go back about 2 years, there seems to be a pattern of medium term warmth alternating with medium term cold....not sure why, but it's definitely there.   The last one ran roughly 10/10/18 to 12/10/18....(Cold)

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It depends on which regions outside the cities you are talking about. Even Montgomery up in Orange County is a top 5 warmest minimum. Although the record goes back to 1999, the top years are similar to around NYC. Albany airport about 7 mi NW of the downtown is similar.

#1...22...2015

#2...17....2012

#3...15....2011

#4...14.....2018...2006

#5....12.....2014

Albany

#1....22...2015

#2...18...2012

#3....15...2001

#4....14...1928

#5....13...2018...2011...1911

 

 

alot of cloudy days this month/fall have helped keep nighttime lows on the high side...

33 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

the 12Z models that have run so far are not showing it - we will remain in this pattern until further notice - Strat warming event will peak mid week takes about 2 - 3 weeks to see the results at the surface and the MJO is still in 5 and won't be in a favorable phase 8 -3 until second week of January at least

we'll get there but it will be a slow slog through the mud...December will end up being a warm month, +1 to +2 with little to possibly no snow....

10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

yup

agreed - some folks think this pattern is going to radically change at the flip of a switch with consistent cold and snow chances - going to take till the second week in January to get where we want to be IMO and who knows how long that will last once the pattern flips to colder and snowier...……..

it's almost always slower than modeled, you'll note we keep pushing back...got to get things to move up and not be 10 days away.    Last week of December looks to be average to above average for temps with one day in the upper 50's with the next cutter.   

Alot of uncertainty right now.   Last 10 days of December will certainly not be as cold as some thought, another cutter on the 28th and maybe another one after that and the SSW event that looked likely is now shaky....  Patience is the key for the next couple weeks.

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

I said it's traveling through 6

I'm done replying to someone who thinks they know it all

Let's all track the upcoming pattern and hope for a snowy winter.

1 minute ago, gravitylover said:

Well, at least I've had coatings a few times, ground intermittently frozen and temps cold enough to make it feel wintry. Two of those coatings were enough that the town sent plows out on the hilltops. 

not much here outside of some flurries.   The ground was frozen after the 10 days of cold for sure-now it's a muddy mess here with water everywhere-hoping for some wind and sun later

2 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

It’s been 10 days away for a week now. I think we got into a dog chasing its tail situation last year during our 7 week winter break.

Im just happy most of xmas week will be in the 40s. You take the small things...

last year was brutal with the bitter cold-everyone was housebound-looking forward to getting out for some walks/hikes this year although it will be muddy

December snow shutout incoming.   Pattern looks better in January, but we remain 10 days away still

12 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

 

Doesn't matter anyway. That's what a typical El Nino does. So it sounds like the coupling is starting to take effect. La Nina Decembers are typically colder. 

good point on the Nina-remember last year?   Went below freezing 12/25 and was largely bitter cold right through the blizzard to break the pattern...1/6

18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I was pointing out what the models showed. Gfs has near 60 for the 27/28 period with some rain/snow showers around the 24th. 

Actually 12z has mid 60s for the 28th.

another cutter around the 28th so more warmth like today.  Definitely wiping out the negative departures of the 1st 10-12 days

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Does everyone not remember how frigid it was here almost the last 2 months?

I was just going to say that-we've had numerous mornings here in the teens and thanksgiving day didn't get above 22 degrees during the day.  Everything's dead for sure....LOL-it's not like 11-12 where we rarely went below freezing...

Just now, NJwx85 said:

You have a band of steady rain coming that runs roughly from the City down to Atlantic City currently with some embedded heavier downpours over the NJ coast. Going to be at least another 2-3 hours before it's over.

probably will crack 2 inches when all said and done.   an inch last Sunday so 3 inches in 5 days-the wet year of 2018 rolls on....

winding down here...close to 1.75

Just now, Neblizzard said:

I really wonder if you’re snowman19 , but just under a different username. 

 where is snowman19 these days?!??!?!

5 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Wow here comes the rain. Hope this doesn’t sit over us for too long.

moving pretty fast...a couple hours and then out-but that's good for another 1-2 inches for sure.

catching the western edge of this firehouse-just dumping here....

back edge to philly already-this will be over for most here by 3pm give or take.

14 minutes ago, Animal said:

0z nam.. just checked it.

rain looks less.

sorta seems not much of a historical event.

anyone else see it?

 

depends on where you are-it has 4-5 inches here-a months worth of rain in 18 hrs...

new NAM gives areas just west of NYC 3-5 inches

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

A SSW is pretty much guaranteed at this point, it looks like a pretty strong event too.

I don't think we'll see anything of consequence until mid Jan but it's not impossible that we sneak something before that.

 Pattern will get here, but models always rush it....