Brian5671

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t ever count on getting over 40 inches of snow between late January and early March. As Don already pointed out, it’s only happened one time in NYC weather history (winter 14-15)

only thing we have going for us is the 5-6 inches already in the books from the November storm.   Without that 40 would really be a stretch

37 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

The majority of winter forecasts have near 40 inches for our area probably because the majority of people making those forecasts like snow, lol.  

the majority of forecasts also had us in the icebox by now, instead the torch has continued unabated....can't really put alot of stock in LR forecasts at this point in time...so much can go wrong as we've seen the past few weeks.

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At least we know that the temperature pattern so far in early January 2019 is closer to 2013 than 2015. We had that very impressive arctic shot during the first week of January  2015 with single digit lows in NYC. 12-13 was all about winter being just 10 days away until it finally clicked later on. 2013 was probably the most recent winter getting pushed back every week  like this year.

Jan 2013 did have a very cold and dry period at the end of the month.....let's hope we don't see that this year after all the storms we've had.

22 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

When can we stick a fork in calling it a “good winter?”

Meaning, if on 1/20 we get 6 weeks of snow and cold...is it still a “good winter?”

At some point we have to acknowledge that whatever happens past 1/15, a good chunk of winter was garbage, no?

 

the odds of a "great winter"  (think-93-94, 95-96) are shrinking each passing day....still a shot at a 12-13 or 14-15 type winter which had alot of action late...

47 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Another rainstorm  for the 4th on the Euro

SMFH

 

cutter city until the EPO and/or AO/NAO changes-also no cold air anywhere so not sure it would matter all that much

Just now, 495weatherguy said:

Agree on waiting till March 1—maybe even April 15 the way some winters have gone recently

that's what I hope doesn't happen-we get the -NAO in March and then have to wait til June for good weather (last year)

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We have to go a long way to beat 2001-02 in that regard and I doubt that will happen.  Our snow season wont really get going until mid January anyway- perhaps even the last 10 days of January.  Let's see what we can do between then and the end of February.  People can start talking about ratters if we have less than 20" seasonal snowfall on March 1.

too early indeed, but it's concerning that models show a good pattern 10 days out and it never moves up in time-that's a sign of a possible ratter.

1 hour ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

Long range model depictions are a train wreck and getting worse. Mild and wet through mid-January. Incoming ratter? 

If we have a ratter it will rank up there as one of the biggest busts in LR forecasting in a long time-most had this as a decent/snowy winter.  Still time to save it, but we are wasting precious weeks now approaching the heart of winter.   

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If the jet configuration still looks like this come 1/15, it will be a very bad sign. I’m sticking with my thoughts for now, but not going to lie, after today’s guidance, I’m starting to wonder. That is a very troubling sight

That Pac Jet was an issue a couple winters ago-can't remember which one, but CA had record snows and we had big time warmth...

5 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

From my own anecdotal perspective, to date, this has been a colder Oct-Dec period than last year. We used one tank of heating oil so far; last year the first tank lasted until mid-January. 

Side note, oil per barrel just hit sub-$45.00; I am hoping with great anticipation for the relaxation in diesel/home heating oil. The $2.67 I just paid, is $.50 higher per gallon than this time last year. What I am unsure of is it demand driven or are refineries running at lower capacity or is it the lag time due to the higher summer/fall oil prices causing the increase in price? 

down to 43.89 this am--I think oil could drop to the high 30's...

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Not much snowcover anywhere

 

no cold air anywhere.  Once Canada got torched, takes awhile to erase that....

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

March probably wont have a historic snow storm, but hey anything in March will be better than how this December has been.

 

That's not saying much-most stations will end December with 0.0 for snow.

21 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The 30th has potential

Could see a 1-2 inch event then.  What’s decent here is that’s in the mid range now and not 10 days away... I’d be happy with an inch at this point.  

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

REMEMBER?

One year ago today, temps. went below 32*, and then stayed there for 14.5 days and nights, including a blizzard like snowstorm.

A mere memory is all we got for this same time frame now.

Incredible stretch of cold.  We had a 2 inch snow on 12/28 that lasted on the ground for a week!

Looks bleak in the snowfall dept next 7-10 days....GFS is all alone....amd it’s fairky mild through 1/1-1/2 time frame. December will finish at least +2 despite a bitter cold first 10 days of the month.

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

We had a couple of weeks of subfreezing temps at night and several days below freezing.

I dont know how anyone is seeing flies, bugs or plants alive.

 

As for the Dec/Nov swap, the problem is the climatology doesnt allow for a winter month-autumn month swap.

You are trading an warm early winter month for a cool late autumn month. We dont get much to show for it.

Not lost in all this warming (as others have pointed out) Dec, Feb, Sept and October seem to be flash points for warming.

Nov, Mar and Jun seem the least affected and prone to BN departures.

Why is that? That is the big question

60-90 day warmth/cold swaps-if you go back about 2 years, there seems to be a pattern of medium term warmth alternating with medium term cold....not sure why, but it's definitely there.   The last one ran roughly 10/10/18 to 12/10/18....(Cold)

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It depends on which regions outside the cities you are talking about. Even Montgomery up in Orange County is a top 5 warmest minimum. Although the record goes back to 1999, the top years are similar to around NYC. Albany airport about 7 mi NW of the downtown is similar.

#1...22...2015

#2...17....2012

#3...15....2011

#4...14.....2018...2006

#5....12.....2014

Albany

#1....22...2015

#2...18...2012

#3....15...2001

#4....14...1928

#5....13...2018...2011...1911

 

 

alot of cloudy days this month/fall have helped keep nighttime lows on the high side...

33 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

the 12Z models that have run so far are not showing it - we will remain in this pattern until further notice - Strat warming event will peak mid week takes about 2 - 3 weeks to see the results at the surface and the MJO is still in 5 and won't be in a favorable phase 8 -3 until second week of January at least

we'll get there but it will be a slow slog through the mud...December will end up being a warm month, +1 to +2 with little to possibly no snow....

10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

yup

agreed - some folks think this pattern is going to radically change at the flip of a switch with consistent cold and snow chances - going to take till the second week in January to get where we want to be IMO and who knows how long that will last once the pattern flips to colder and snowier...……..

it's almost always slower than modeled, you'll note we keep pushing back...got to get things to move up and not be 10 days away.    Last week of December looks to be average to above average for temps with one day in the upper 50's with the next cutter.   

Alot of uncertainty right now.   Last 10 days of December will certainly not be as cold as some thought, another cutter on the 28th and maybe another one after that and the SSW event that looked likely is now shaky....  Patience is the key for the next couple weeks.

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

I said it's traveling through 6

I'm done replying to someone who thinks they know it all

Let's all track the upcoming pattern and hope for a snowy winter.

1 minute ago, gravitylover said:

Well, at least I've had coatings a few times, ground intermittently frozen and temps cold enough to make it feel wintry. Two of those coatings were enough that the town sent plows out on the hilltops. 

not much here outside of some flurries.   The ground was frozen after the 10 days of cold for sure-now it's a muddy mess here with water everywhere-hoping for some wind and sun later

2 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

It’s been 10 days away for a week now. I think we got into a dog chasing its tail situation last year during our 7 week winter break.

Im just happy most of xmas week will be in the 40s. You take the small things...

last year was brutal with the bitter cold-everyone was housebound-looking forward to getting out for some walks/hikes this year although it will be muddy

December snow shutout incoming.   Pattern looks better in January, but we remain 10 days away still

12 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

 

Doesn't matter anyway. That's what a typical El Nino does. So it sounds like the coupling is starting to take effect. La Nina Decembers are typically colder. 

good point on the Nina-remember last year?   Went below freezing 12/25 and was largely bitter cold right through the blizzard to break the pattern...1/6