Brian5671

Also, anyone think the southern hemisphere wackiness is causing some things to go awry here?   

1 minute ago, Mersky said:

Why does every storm or cold spell have to be memorable?? Thank God most of you were not around in the 70’s or 80’s. You all would be a sorry, miserable bunch if you were 

I was around for the 80's (and the 90's which were mostly horrid but not as horrid as the 80's) lol.  not everything needs to be memorable, but some were tossing around "78 and '15 for analogs...
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Nice storm on the GFS next weekend...too far out to get too excited but it does have a nice track

Just now, Allsnow said:

But now we have blocking in central Canada. We don’t need a -nao to snow in nyc. We had that for the first half of December and got squat. 

Fair point.    If there's good -EPO as well that'll do it too.

1 minute ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

Not with a cold enough air mass....

Early March is fine-but once you get past 3/10 or so, daytime accums get tough unless it's really heavy or windy/cold.  March 18 was awesome but had that been in Feb, we would have had twice the snow easily

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We will have opportunities  coming up the next few weeks. The reshuffling was on the ensembles for the 26th but the signal is bit stronger now. 
 

By just reading this thread you would think next week La Niña is coming and we will torch again. 
We still have ridging our west with a split flow along with a northwest flow from Canada. The cutters are gone after Saturday but most people won’t acknowledge that because it means little for their backyard. 
 

Agree with @bluewave, the +amm is probably hurting the -epo and the scandy ridging is fading. Which it return is allowing higher hgts in central Canada. It’s still not a bad look and trust me of it looked like trash I would acknowledge it. 

with no ATL blocking, I would not say cutters are gone-even with cold highs, there's the risk a storm slips b/w highs and goes to the lakes.   Agree it's a better pattern, but can't agree that it's a good or great pattern.

Just now, Snow88 said:

For an asteroid. 

What do you think?

Why are you ignoring the signs of a better pattern and also ignoring Allsnow and PB?

been hearing about a great pattern for 2 years...not much to show for it.   Like Allsnow said above the chances for an 05 or 15 recovery are slim.     Hopefully we can get a snowstorm or two...I'd be happy with that at this point.  Anything more than that would be a huge win.

18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Sorry guys haven’t been around much. My Wife and I welcomed our first child on New Years Eve.

Congrats!  Best day to have a kid-you get the tax credit for the whole year!  LOL.   Mine are 10 (twins)-goes fast, enjoy every minute despite some long days and sleepless nights

3 of the last 5 Marches have featured above normal snows here.  If you go back to pre-2010, snow was scarce in March but more plentiful in December-interesting how there's certain patterns over a period of time.

Just now, Snow88 said:

Late this month still looks good. 

for what? 

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

At this point I would say just bring on spring but I already know it'll be another lousy one. 

I can already see the NAO/AO tanking as we flip to March. 

How about an Easter HECS?   LOL

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Didn’t 89 have a Big Mid Atlantic storm??

it was a weird storm-gave ACY something like 15 inches but 20 miles inland was nothing.    I was living outside of philly at the time and forecasts were 6-12 and we didn't see a flake.   It was around 2/20/89 or something like that.   Not much else other than that-it was colder though once we got to to Feb 89.    Dec 88-Jan 89 were infernos with little to no snow.

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Incredible stuff! Thanks Don. We might see that typical backend niño February 

seeing 93 and 07 in there are interesting.    89 was garbage the rest of the way for the most part.

22 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

In PB we trust

Why do you think the rest of the winter will suck ?

Never said it would suck, but I'm starting to doubt we see anything memorable. There was no ridging 2 days ago on models now that's showing up....(and we know how that works-name a winter warmup that did not over-perform)    Some cold mixed in with warmups, hopefully a  snowstorm or two to salvage things.  Last time NYC saw a storm of more than 4 inches?   Nov 2018.   Let's hope we can at least get that and hopefully more.   Give me a Feb 2006 storm and I'd call it a day for sure.

9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The flip is still coming

of course it is....wait for it, wait for it, wait....

47 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

What happened to the pattern flip after the 20th? Can any of these models really be that good? This winter has stinker written all over it, but that's just gut feeling. I'll wait and see what happens, because what else can one do?

Not looking great all the sudden.  January could have an incredible +++ departure if next weekend ends up warm.    NYC is something like +10 right now.

18 minutes ago, doncat said:

For a winter month, I don't think  that you could have a more boring first two weeks... +9° temp departure... 0.46" of precip and 1" of snow. I'm not an all snow guy, so give me cold Temps and some stormieness  and I'm ok...but geez  come on.

Last 10 days of December were bad too-temps in the 40's, no precip, yawn city. 

16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Looks like a rainy version of NEMO 2013.

good track just need to speed up that cold air injection that's in the great lakes

17 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Yeh but that Blob of Green up to Saginaw doesnt give me a warm fuzzy feeling for the back end

Nor does the low over northern Lake Michigan!

1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said:

I hear you. I just hate snowless winters. All the gloomy with none of the fun and a waste of being too cold to enjoy the outdoors. With snow the world looks magical and you can go outside and enjoy it. You don't have to worry about sinking in feet of mud and muck. My least favorite season is spring until late May (sometimes June). I am a winter and summer guy, and most falls aren't bad either. 

Completely agree-if it's not going to snow, give me what we had this weekend...

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

91-92 had basically nothing until mid March 

yep, now I remember that one.  Horrid outside of a mid and late month storm and I remember the 2nd one busting-got like an inch or something. 

Just now, rclab said:

Didn’t we have a recent memory cold season that had zero accumulation a but into March? As always....

I don't recall a winter like that.     Last year was close-but the biggest snow was in Nov, without that we would have gone close to snowless until the March events came...

4 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

He posted statistics for this date, he didn't make the numbers up by dividing the days in the season. We are statistically behind where we should be for this time of year. However, most of our big storms are, statistically, after the 20th of January. Very often those seasons that end up below average at the end of the January, wind up below average at the conclusion of the season as well. If we don't get the ball rolling soon, then the statistics are no in our favor. This is where people freak out. I didn't say winter would be over, just that statistically it would not look as rosy. With stats though, there is a first for everything. I remain optimistic, however there are some clouds forming on that optimism. 

if we get to 2/1 and we're still where we are now, it's all but over-usually if the pattern doesn't really change by then, it's not going to.  Last year is a good example-we did get a 6-10 day stretch in early March but by and large things stayed the same, mild and relatively snowless

Just now, Snow88 said:

Philly has less  than an inch

that's 72/73 type bad.     Even 01-02 and 11-12 had 4-6 inches by the end of January.  

IF NYC gets to 1/31 with 1.5 inches of snow that has to be among the all time lows for the first 2/3 of met winter