Brian5671

Hot spots might make a run at 98-100

21 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

This is horrible! Wish the cold would be here already. In 15 days it’ll be cold. Gotta admit it though this year looks like the cold will be very slow to come here.

LOL.   We roasted into October last year-there will be no "cold" with those +++ SST's off the coast.

2 hours ago, Snowlover11 said:

figures the holiday weekend will be crappy with rain chances every day

may be ok if it's dry most of the time-crappy would be an all day stratiform rain...

26 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

The CFS Weeklies are suggesting that the AN temps and high dews will fade after September 10th, and the long range GFS agrees.

Euro weeklies have AN lasting almost the entire run...Fairly dry too with the lack of tropical activity this year.

1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said:

I would kill to have more summers like that one. Absolutely beautiful for all of June and July. August was back to normal but it was my all-time favorite summer. Also had an EF2 touch down about 20 miles from me that summer, which qualifies as interesting in Pennsylvania.

Rained here most of June.   Really sucked.   July was cool and dry like you said and August had 4 weeks of humid/warm, it's like the opposite of a warm winter where you get 2-3 weeks of cold and that's it...guess it's the summer version of that.

.09 here.   Activity died further east you go

8 hours ago, Rjay said:

So, it's  gonna rain...

BUST

2 hours ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

Only May has been well above normal.

August will likely finish +3 to +4 and Feb was a blowtorch as noted above...

33 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Some drizzle falling here in wantagh currently despite the radar not showing anything. Today definitely has an early autumn feel. 

solid cloud deck here and temps going nowhere...the gloom does remind me a bit of late Sept or Oct where the sun angle is not enough to burn off the stratus...

72/67 here-cloudy

7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Yeah, but it was close to a miracle that we maintained the 80/75 stuff as long as we did... you can't expect that for the whole of astro summer. I remain leery of the ridge building a bit further east and siphoning off the western GoM moisture. As it stands, the GFS op has dews near or better than 70F for much (most?) of next week. The broadcast mets carrying on about a "taste of autumn" are overselling it imo.

That is true...while it is a taste of autumn especially compared to what we've had, it's an island of cool in a sea of warmth.

and the heat next week likely won't have 75 degree dewpoints....

Just now, TriPol said:

Any update on the severe storms for tonight?

BUST.    Models have backed off that with the slower fronts-showers/storms overnight but nothing big.

some of those cool August forecasts out there are in big trouble....

not sure if the EURO is on crack but it dumps 5 inches of rain in and around NYC on Sunday

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

September has become more like a 4th month of summer since the late 90's. Record number of years with a September average temperature at or above 70 for places like EWR and LGA. Almost as warm as an average June.

WARM AMO I am thinking contributes...will be interesting to see what happens when the flip to the cold phase occurs...

2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Maybe there's a difference, "Christmas" songs being timeless Yuletide hymns whereas Xmas music is just that one Mariah Carey song on repeat from Halloween until MLK Day

same ol 100 burnt out songs over and over and over.  Worse than a classic rock station...

Just now, IrishRob17 said:

Holiday tunes...

22 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

they've been waiting since june 1 to post about it. then when it gets hot again they'll say how it's not so bad because the sun angle is lower

whoopdee do- a day of 90 in September....it's over as far as the big long lasting heatwave by about 9/1 or so....clock's ticking...days are shortening...soon we'll be singing Xmas tunes...

12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's a significant cool down post Saturday, one of the first signs that summers back is bending. 

But alas they'll be plenty more warm/wet weather.

the "backbreaker front"  usually the first sign that fall is right around the corner.

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

During a record breaking summer for 75 degree or higher dew points, we are even getting them with a NE wind.

Southold         N/A     75  75 100 NE2         N/A

Those record SST's doing the dirty work....

27 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

What do you think the chances of this wet stuff staying south for another 8 hours are? Are storms or cells going to pop further north as the day warms up? As of right now it seems that it's from the city south and it's just grey up here in the LHV.

models show it redeveloping later today, but interestingly the action comes from the SE and moves NW....some sun here currently....

Wet weekend on tap:

The
mesoscale predictability of where the heaviest convective rainfall
axis will be is still low at this time, but potential exists
somewhere across Central CT/Central LI westward into Lower HUD/NE
NJ/NYC metro. In this region, threat for locally torrential rain and
localized swaths of flash flooding exist late tonight into Saturday
afternoon, with shortwave lift encountering increasingly deep
moisture of 1-2 +std PWATs, apparent instability gradient, and a
focus for development/SW-NE training along a stalling frontal
boundary.

10 minutes ago, Rjay said:

88/41 split on the day.  Currently 49 with lots of smoke in the air. Headed towards 90 later.

49 eh?   That would feel nice right about now...

13 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Tomorrow is the only day in the next 7 without t-storm chances in my forecast.

Same for here.    NAM really dumps on us over the weekend...