Brian5671

Just now, bluewave said:

That would be a very rare occurrence. Only a small fraction of major SSW’s have occurred before January.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/groups/csd8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

I agree-that's why I remain skeptical

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The recent SSW’s have also been occurring later in the season. It’s rare to get one early.

Judah Cohen writes today about a possible SSW in mid December this year-time will tell....

That last Euro image looks like coast to coast cold could develop especially with some blocking

7 hours ago, psv88 said:

Same song and dance every single winter. Twitter "Mets" trying to boost views and likes by hyping cold and snow. Soon we kick the can down the road. On some sites people are analyzing a blizzard at hour 768. Its November 15, and the hype is worse than ever. We get a few cold days and people predict a cold winter...last winter taught me one thing, only expect snow when its actually falling. Before that, its anyone's guess.

and the general public just laps it up like a thirsty dog-every winter is going to be "severe" and cold and snowy....

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Bastardi has long said that drought conditions in the East from 10/1-11/15 are usually a bad indicator for the winter most of the time.  Not only indicating dry but also that it may be mild.  1994, 2001, and 2011 all saw that happen.

agree-although I think 2013 was very dry and we did well.    We had a very wet October this year so that's good.  November has been dry but that often comes with the arctic (dry) cold.

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

this weekend may have the last arctic shot for a long time, and looks like the Euro will be right with its idea of a single Scandanavian high, rather than the dual blocking pattern of the GFS.

conjecture at this point....models change in a heartbeat.  Also, who wants cold in November?  It rarely yields anything.   Let the cold pattern wait til 12/1 or even 1/1.  

31 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m talking an extended period, weeks not days. An 01/02 redux is extremely unlikely this winter

yeah that year and 11/12 featured dry warm conditions which started around 11/1 and never really wavered except for a 10 day period in mid to late January those years.

22 at BDR which is record low.   (1986)

very little salt here in CT-a few parking lots had it down, but no roads/highways that I could see on my travels today.   

1 hour ago, Sn0waddict said:

Wouldn’t really say HRRR fail, it pointed out that the precip would backfill in the first place, most other models had no snow.

Agree-it was too bullish on accumulations-it was in the 60's yesterday and well above freezing today with light precip forecast-you'd need heavy rates to get anything to stick....

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Hrrr has this going until 2 or 3pm

not happening

mood flakes for most-the band is moving east fairly quickly and will be out by 1pm or so...

9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Still just a cold rain on the island. Looks like we aren’t going to get a squall type burst with the arctic front but some lingering moisture snows. Obviously the warm ground and weak rates aren’t going to cut it for accumulations. 

yeah some models show a coating, but agree-light rates and it was in the 50's and 60's last 2 days and temps in the mid to upper 30's today....unlikely to see anything accumulate

1 minute ago, Dr. Dews said:

LC's epic post from Eastern was backlash against weenies who insisted they were going to ice storm, LC disagreed and weenies backlashed strongly. LC had a legit meltdown and ended up wishing not 1", but 2 or 3" of ice somewhere in the Carolinas. 

that guy had the thinnest skin of anyone.    

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

In true anal-frontal fashion, models are meh tomorrow. 

new NAM has almost no QPF here now lol

-

tomorrow's problem is a lack of QPF too...NAM is down to .05 to .15  region wide...couple of hours of light rain and that's it.

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

This storm caught everyone off guard. I'm not sure if any model got it right ( maybe the Nam ?)

there was also a belief that it was too early for a storm of that magnitude.  CT was also completely unprepared

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Why dont they just use sand?  It's much more ecofriendly.

 

Here is CT sand is banned.   Clogs up sewers.   The state uses mag chloride and salt.   Individual towns can do what they want but most have gone with the ban

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is during the snowiest decade of all time for parts of the region. Imagine what the weather forums would have been like from 79/80-91/92.We can also add 96/97 -01/02 to the list.

mass weenie suicides....although we would expect nothing so a 2 inch snowfall would be seen as a big win...LOL

13 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nam has about an inch for the city

there's barely .10 of QPF (which is mainly rain)   it's going to be near 60 today would be hard for anything to stick with light rates....

3 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

I love how this board hyped up 2 snowstorms for the whole month: one rain; one flurries

 

Gonna be a long winter on here...and not because or the weather!

people latch onto models outside their range.   The solutions shown 3-4 days ago are nothing like what will actually verify-a cold frontal passage with some rain showers that may end with a mangled flake or two.

The NAM is down to a few rain showers and maybe a flake or two at the end for tomorrow.    

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Looks like a change to snow for everyone tomorrow night but no accumulations for the coast. 

I think it would be more mid-day Tuesday as the precip pulls out the stuff at night and Tue AM is rain (coast)

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Seems like no one is tracking on here

that's b/c it's likely to end up as a regular cold front passage with some rain and maybe a few flakes on the backend.  The 18z's are less bullish already....

21 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

23 in wantagh last night. Very impressive cold. Any annuals are shriveled. Perennials and remaining leaves are going right into winter mode.

last night took care of anything close to building or other warm spots that was hanging on....down to 22 here last night-mid winter chill