Brian5671
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Everything posted by Brian5671
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Here's what I see as a problem right now 1. Crazy fast Pac Jet-no precip as short waves just race across the country and don't amplify. 2. Record SST's off the east coast-going to need a storm to take a perfect track this time of year. (Later in the year this could work to our advantage) 3. MJO showing signs of stalling in Ph 6. (4-5-6 generally suck here)
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There's a stat out there too-if we get no snow or minimal snow in December, the winter will generally suck. Last year we had the foot in the middle of the month which led to a well above normal snowfall for the season....
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Whole month starting to look like a nothing burger. Would suck if December is the "coldest" month this year...
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with a fast flow and MJO stuck in 6/7 that's what we have to hope for.
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Pattern looks to continue boring for the next few weeks.
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23 here as well heavy frost.
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cutter on the GFS next Monday...at this point that would be exciting....
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We need some storms-been a dry pattern with just a series of cold fronts with some light rains ahead of their passage.
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I think Feb might have higher snow fall averages even with a shorter month (28 days vs 31)?
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yeah I'm dropping quickly here down ot 37 already
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We did have the big December storm last year but it was a week or so of cold
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latest leaf drop I've seen here. About 80% down as of today.
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Boring pattern next 2-3 weeks.....just a series of cold fronts with pac air behind them each time and accompanied by some showers.
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it's early-snow is generally rare around here before xmas. I'll jump the ledge in Mid Jan-if it doesn't come by then, it's usually not coming...years like 06-07 are outliers in that regard where the cold really did come 2nd half
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If we get stuck in phase 6 most of these cold December forecasts are in trouble...
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Lack of cold air will be the main issue next few weeks. It's early so no big deal.
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26 for the low here-leaves dropping fast this AM
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We definitely need that gone...some of our warmest/snowless winters have featured a strong Vortex near AK
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2013-14 2014-15 type patterns. Strong -EPO to deliver the cold. Atlantic blocking is good too-but if it's pacific origin air you're just trapping a crappy airmass and that's what I see with this at least for a couple of weeks
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those patterns favor central and northern NE.
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yeah, as modeled that would be 30's and 40's for us-any storm would likely be a cold rain
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Cold air supply does appear to be problematic here with the lack of a -EPO.
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yeah the key is the SW component, a S wind would keep most of us cooler right off the water...
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seems that the temps on the warmup as are always above forecast though
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69 here-just crazy
