Brian5671
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Everything posted by Brian5671
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It's better later in the season. It will cut off the cold air supply so in Jan/Feb it at least has a better chance of trapping a decent airmass (which is what happened in 2009-10 winter). In December you're likely to trap a crap airmass and that's exactly what we are getting....
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That much is true. People discounted it b/c "it's the GFS" but have to look at all guidance. EPS was bad in 19-20 as well showing a good pattern 2nd half of winter that never came.
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amazing what a week can do-we went from big cold/snows/epic pattern to nothing in 6-7 days.
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I think that was mainly the last frigid week though? That was one heck of a cold snap-I didn't crack freezing for 2 weeks from Xmas day to the blizzard in early Jan.
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December since 2011 have been warm and snowless outside of storms in 2013 and 2020 but it warmed right back up after the those mid month storms. Can't have a bad PAC in December-we're just locking in a crappy airmass with any Atlantic block...looks warm and stormy next couple of weeks....more drought busting rains at least...
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Good post. Decembers have generally been mild/snowless going back to 2011 at least for the coastal plain. Couple mid month storms in 2013 and 2020 but right back to warmth after said storms....
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might be the first 2/3, any changes remain in fantasy land (day 10+)
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Love that trail. Yeah it's in a valley so I can see the cold air settling in...
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NYC 20" EWR 27" MMU 29" ISP 17" SWF 33"
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We may get something towards Xmas-that would be nice-but this is not what was modeled 7-10 days ago that is for sure...
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Classic -PNA there. All the cold is out west while we torch.
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Usually the kiss of death....
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Fantasy range after day 6-7 and verbatim there remains little in the way of cold air in the eastern US
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18z is warm and wet again through day 10... who cares what it shows beyond then, fantasy period.
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Ugly run of the GFS warm and rainy through mid month-no cold air supply with the lousy pac. Edit-CMC is better but it's the CMC-need to see if the Euro agrees with it. -
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Yeah it was rough-great pattern but nothing until BDB. There was an OTS storm 12/17 as well. Was brutally cold too-month was -4.7
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I'm on board for late Dec/Early Jan-works for me-better climo. Models are always too quick to bring in a pattern change and too quick to break it down-so add 10-15 days onto the change on either end and you'll be good.
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Love your optimism but you do the same thing every year....you've been at this hobby long enough to know it's not going as planned...
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No one is using the GFS. If you look at the EPS it pushes the pattern out in time. And the PAC does matter especially in mid December. Right now the NAO will just trap a marginal airmass which for the coast is 40 and rain. Go back and read the last 2 pages here please...
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Hopefully it's not one of those "it's always 10 days away patterns"
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Yeah but as bluewave notes above we keep slowly pushing back. Need PAC help or we're just trapping pac polar air right now....
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Yep got down to 21 here-everything coated in frost...
