Krs4Lfe

The projected cold weather between Christmas and new years is quickly slipping away. Hopefully we can get a pattern reset in early January akin to January 2024 because that shook things up quite a bit and prevented a January-March 2023 repeat with an eastern ridge. Something will have to give at some point, or that’s quite the headfake the models were throwing at us

It just seems like the central US ridge has strengthened as we get closer to the date. Around a week ago, we knew there would be warmth across much of conus. But this record breaking warmth for much of south and central US appears to have creeped up on us, and the duration of it seems to extend past Christmas now. I think we’ll need a jet extension (I know how much we hate those) to push storminess ashore and get some storms moving throuhh CONUS. I’d rather take my chances with stormy weather and hope there’s a well timed cold air injection than to have wall to wall torch with the only winter weather being north of the border. Doesn’t get much worse than this

With the PNA dipping even further negative, it’s likely that trough will persist, and there will be some ridge either over central US or east US. Even if northeast remains colder than average, with the rest of the country torching, there’s no snowstorm that can make its way over here. Unironically; the winter weather across CONUS this month could be the most significant of this entire winter.

This torch is very impressive and will result in many places in south where the anomalies have been ip to -8 so far to average near normal. The only place that will remain relatively average through end of the month is the northeast. Rest of US is in a big torch and the worst part is it doesn’t show signs of changing either. It will be impossible, mark my words, impossible, to get snow in this area with such warmth across CONUS. Any storm that comes into the west coast will be too warm like this past one, with snow confined to the far northern tier. And side from an occasional rain storm, most of the country will remain dry. Even reminiscent of Winter 2020 in that respect, where no one outside of the western 1/4th of country had much snow. And this season, even they don’t have any snow. This is also similar to mid December 2023 through early January 2024, where there was a coast to coast torch. One week into January 2024, that all changes though. However, this appears to be a very persistent pattern that will last into the forseeable future.

There’s just not enough cold air out west so the storm is crashing into the West Coast are mainly just rain. And until that ridge over the central US abates, snow, and cold will be absent for the entire country with the exception of the northeast that will remain chilly, but still no snow. Hopefully this pattern can shake up after the new year, but it looks like this pattern might stick around for a bit.

I was saying in 2023 they had a banner year out there because of the -PNA while we torched. I was saying that because If the -PNA persists this year, we might have a 2023 repeat

I think the ridge over the central US is just too powerful and at some point the negative PNA will force storms into the West Coast, causing the ridge to roll over into the east. By then ,the ridge will be less powerful but still give us above normal temperatures and dryer conditions

Absolutely abysmal for any winter weather prospects. Only storminess will be heading to west coast because of the -PNA. I don’t think we should discount a January 2023 scenario. Cold and snow across conus for most of December 2022, and then late in the month we flipped to a torch and the east stayed like that for rest of winter. The west got record snowfall because of a deep -PNA

Literal blowtorch for nearly the entire CONUS for rest of forseeable future. Absolute abysmal prospects for any cold or snow anywhere in country for next few weeks. Doesn’t show any signs of reversal either. Don’t buy BAM’s hype

Really looks like the -NAO wants to develop. But ideally we would want it to develop a bit more to the west and force some blocking across northern Canada and Greenland. But I believe east -NAO are good flow slowing storms down on the Atlantic side. That being said, you need help from the pacific as well but as long as Alaska stays cold and stormy, I’m not sure we’ll get much help. Looks like northeast will be the only place colder than average for the rest of the month. Been a torch across most of CONUS this entire week and will likely prevail into the new year. Places down south that we’re running 10 degrees below normal will finish around average from this torch. Warm Christmas for many, doesn’t look like that pattern will Let up through early January.

It is a permanent issue. With a record warm west pacific year after year, that supercharges the pacific jet and/or southern stream and nothing is ever able to phase properly. Back in the 2010s, there would be bowling balls traversing CONUS and anywhere east of the Rockies would do well. Aside from 2021, that has been absent for most of the country. 2020, 2023, and 2024 were very good out west thouhh, with 2023 and 2024 having record snows for Rockies through upper Midwest and Great Lakes (even 2020 and 2019 to some extent.) But the northeast has been the loser time and again, and that’ll continue for as long as the west pacific remains very warm. Climate change will only exacerbate this. Welcome to the new normal.

-NAO are definitely more helpful than harmful. But we will need cooperation from the pacific. With all the energy roaring ashore the Pacific Northwest this week, it’ll be hard to get the pacific to slow down enough. And mind you, that’s only if the -NAO doesn’t link up with the SER. If it does, then it doesn’t matter how much pacific Help you get, it’ll be cutter city

Looks like winter 2023 to me. Troughs knocking into west coast, keeping them cold and stormy while the east US roasts

And unfortunately, those strong La Niña are often a coin toss between whether there is above average snowfall in New York City or well below average snowfall in New York City. Looks like the active weather pattern will continue across for northern US and put the south and the central US states will remain warm and dry. Usually it does not bode well for the mid Atlantic when there’s only an active northern stream and the southern stream is relatively muted. That doesn’t prevent coastal storms or the big bowling ball storms and most of us need to produce meaningful snow. For New England an active northern stream is conducive for snowfall, but for most of us absolutely is not. The long range models show no signs of this pattern, letting up. There will likely be no chances for snowfall for most of us in the foreseeable future going out through at least early to mid January.

Ski resorts will get a big one in the northwest. Blizzard warnings posted for the cascades which isn’t typical over there, even in the winter. Looks like a North Dakota and north Minnesota blizzard as well. Lots of high winds with this Incoming storm, entire intermountain west will see 60+, with mountain ranges seeing up to 90. Could be quite the power outage event over there over next 24-36 hours. Northwest coast has been pounded with rain past week and it’ll only be heavier this week as well.