Krs4Lfe

If I had a dollar for everytime I heard the “better pattern just weeks away”

Unfortunately we have lost the cold in the 2nd week of January. That timing is very poor for the next system which moves through around the start of that week. It’s telling that the models have not hinted at any resurgence of the storm that was depicted a few days ago. The cold has been lost and the NS is too fast and can’t phase with SS so all we get is a weak NS storm at a time when we have warm anomalies. A big let down

The only times I can think of when can kicking actually worked was the big pattern change in late January 2015 and the big pattern change in late January 2021 after a mild month. Aside from that, can kicking has almost never worked. That being said, a cold and snowy December in NYC usually correlates to this entire forum doing well later on in the season. If we don't, then this will indeed be very rare territory. History is almost always on our side after having a cold, snowy december. Hopefully that pans out for us this time as well

As long as we have record warm northwest pacific SSTs for a majority of the year, that helps supercharge the pacific jet, which leads to fast flow. Until the fast flow subsides, we will lack those bowling-ball type amplified systems that were prevalent in the 2000s and 2010s. It's the new normal

Agreed. Right now the south East Ridge has been pushed back quite a bit so any storm that comes towards our area would likely not be interfered by that ridge and we would not run the risk of the storm being amplified too much and cutting to our west. Instead, our current problem is that we don’t have enough amplification because the northern stream is just flowing too fast and cannot phase with the southern stream in time to lead to a large coastal storm. However, it looks to be towards mid month that there is a shake up in the Pacific, which will push the mild air in the west and central US over the east US briefly. Then afterwards we will appear to be in a more of a colder regime similar to what we are in now but this time the cold will be more widespread across the US. While that will likely increase the chances for snow because our snow storms will have already been formed to our west and traverse across the US, we do run the risk of a larger southeast Ridge, which would lead to potential over amplification and temperature issues during those storms. So for now, we have the cold, but we don’t have the snow, and in a few weeks it’s looking like we might have the cold, but we have issues with the southeast Ridge, which will of course affect our chances for snow as well. Either way, we need a big shake up in the Pacific because most of the US is snapping back to warm and dry for the foreseeable future, which doesn’t go well for our chances either.

On this Day in 2013, models started honing in on a winter storm across Midwest that would make Its way to northeast and amplify off the coast. New Year’s Day NHL classic was in Michigan and it was snowing heavily. I remember thinking wow that’s coming to us. By January 2nd we were under winter storm warning for 6-10+” of snow, near blizzard conditions. All out blizzard for eastern New England and Long Island though. Was great tracking that one. A kickstart to an amazing winter in 2014, the best I’ve ever seen second to 2011 (which I wasn’t into weather back then but it was still cool to see all that snow too).

It’s true that it will be cold here. Rest of country will return to warmth which decreases chance for snow across the US and decreases our snow chances as well. We’ll be the only part of the US until mid January with colder weather. Not ideal for the type of amplified bowling ball type systems we’ll need in order to get our snowfall up to average. January 2022 had a big chance across US after a warm December 2021 which provided ample chances for snow across US. Same with January 2024. Even January 2025 after a rather dry and mild December. But still no signs of a wholescale pattern change through mid January imo

CPC just came in with crushing news for snow weenies across most of the US. Warm and mild, only colder pockets here in the northeast. Looks like pushing the ridge out over Central US was just temporary. Most of CONUS goes right back to warmer temperatures and that forecast is for 1/8-1/13. Most will have to punt first half of January. Never a good sign imo

Typical depiction of almost all winters since 2019. Endless can kicking. Each time there needs to be "a miracle" or "thread the needle" and then we move onto the next one. Until we get into March and we realize it's all over lol

I think the short range models are putting too much into the clipper on NYE. Seems like nothing but mood flakes until it hits the water and then maybe a few inches for Cape Cod and downeast Maine. Precipitation coming from a northwest origin tends to dry out big time. Sunday (verbatim as it is depicted currently) is just as dried out.

This sounds accurate. La Ninas are usually warmer than normal in February and torch in March. December and January are the best months for snowfall in a La Nina. Once you punt January (not saying we are, at least not yet) in a La Nina, you run into significant trouble for rest of winter. Now would be the month to cash in. In a La Nina, anything past end of January becomes more difficult.

Models punting the originally expected "good pattern" through first week of January. Onto the next week, and the next week, and I bet the week after that. Mild and warmth returns to most of CONUS except northeast starting next week. No sustained cold or snow for most of country. We might remain cold, but it'll be hard to snow with such persistent warm all around. Terrible look

Yesterday we were talking about how a big storm was becoming more likely in that timeframe range. Now it looks like a repeat of cold/dry and warm/wet. Nothing to be happy about in the long range. That being said, it's still quite far away, and the pattern change looks likely, but probably doesn't happen soon enough for this storm to be what we wanted it to be

You'd think with that depiction that there would be at least 1" across NY metro and then once it hits the water, it would strengthen enough to reach a few inches in east New England. But the model depictions look so dried out

Welcome to the new normal. The flow is too fast for anything amplified. Too much storminess near the west coast doesn't let anything amplified to crawl up the coast like it used to in the 2010s and 2000s. Even when there is a -NAO so there's enough blocking, the flow is too fast and the northern stream can never phase with southern stream.