BuffaloWeather

GEFS still looking good for mid month

With 1 day left in Nov. Looks like we finish around 6th for warmest November on record. AVERAGE MONTHLY: 46.7 DPTR FM NORMAL: 5.8 .8" of snowfall on season at KBUF. -7.5" below normal 1 47.9 1931 2 47.8 1902 3 47.1 1948 4 46.9 1975 5 46.9 2001 6 46.5 2011 7 46.2 2015 8 45.1 2016 9 45.1 1994 10 44.8 1909

I agree. Temps are pretty marginal for lower elevations. Going to have to get some really good rates with temps above freezing for anything to really stick.

Yeah, it's a fantastic setup. The only better would be a few degrees colder.

Should be a really good event for Cleveland and Erie

15k fine and more importantly he lost his Crossfit designation. A pretty huge deal for a crossfit gym. He likely shuts down long term due to this. https://www.wgrz.com/article/money/business/crossfit-ends-affiliation-with-athletes-unleashed-after-email-surfaces/71-5af1e036-b626-4c68-bff6-4e09cf5a1421 " Dinero refuses to pay the fine and had planned to reopen his gym Monday, November 30 but he said after speaking with his legal team decided against it. "

NYS hospitalizations. I think we see this go up as we enter the 2nd wave until the 2nd week of January. Hopefully by then we see a downward trend with some semblance of herd immunity/vaccines rolling out.

Can’t wait for some winter hikes!

Even better on the GEPS

That's a good look for snow for our region in Mid December

Also got my 2 nest cams installed. You can watch my fence fall down during next wind storm.

I'm finishing up my board and stakes this week. I need to get a new weather station.

The average high/low the first week of December is high 30s/high 20s, as we head into the 2nd week of December normal temps bring us snow. So as long as we're not torching we should be okay. That's what the long range forecasting shows currently, right around average temps. A strong gradient showing up next 2 weeks, lots of storms to track. I think we hit on one of them.

Pretty sure I'm off Weds and will be chasing this at max elevation on Chautuaqua ridge.

Extrapolating those numbers of 25k cases in Erie county and 920k population, 200k in Erie county have had the virus or 21.7% of the population.

Todays numbers

start applying

There are patterns that benefit the entire region. A clipper one is the easiest choice. SW winds in front, NW behind. 1-3 to 3-6 synoptic followed by lake effect, one after another with reinforcing shots of colder air. Miller Bs usually benefit the entire forum as well. Miller As usually target one specific region western/central/or eastern NY.

In regards to the Orchard Park gym owner... An Orchard Park gym owner whose defiance of Covid-19 restrictions has earned him national attention has been accused of responding to a customer requesting a refund with a racist, profanity-laced attack. Robert Dinero, owner of Athletes Unleashed, in July told the woman he would refund the $395 she was owed but not before calling her a "filthy, foreign, Third-World country piece of (expletive)" in his reply, which was punctuated with two other curse words https://buffalonews.com/news/local/gym-owner-who-defied-covid-19-rules-slammed-over-racist-profane-email/article_bd9b4ab2-31a9-11eb-b6f6-5ba96c79750d.html.

The actual infections in the US are likely over 100 million. You cannot go based on confirmed cases as most are asymptomatic or minor symptoms. The CDC just said likely infections are 8 times confirmed infections. Between vaccines and herd immunity, this thing is toast come summer.

The last 3 days have been +8, +14, +10 for temps

That airmass for the next storm.

GEFS looking good, especially for eastern areas.

He also didn't tell anyone to cancel thanksgiving. The rules are to keep it under 10 people.