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BuffaloWeather

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Everything posted by BuffaloWeather

  1. BuffaloWeather
    Of course it would, its 9 days out. That's what model watching is all about.
  2. BuffaloWeather
    A nice NW flow LES event 2 days before christmas on GFS @TugHillMatt
  3. BuffaloWeather
    Euro and GFS Ensembles for anything beyond day 5. Within 1-4 days and combo of Euro/UK/GFS/GEM. Avoid NAM and RGEM until within 48 hours, unless lake effect snow.
  4. BuffaloWeather
    I'm pretty sure the SREFS are based on the WRF extended models. NMM and ARW. They're terrible, just like the ICON. If you click on this and go to right middle part of page you can select model cores. NMM/ARW https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/
  5. BuffaloWeather
    I'm the same way. December is my favorite winter month, followed by January. Feb/March are usually lame as Erie is frozen. So if we lose rest of December we got 30 days left of winter. Synoptic just doesn't do it for me.
  6. BuffaloWeather
    Hopefully we see a pattern change for Jan. April and May were the only months below normal this year. Every other month was substantially warmer. I thought La Ninas were not as warm as El Ninos were for our area? Or is it just global warming is taking over any ENSO state? Jan +8.1 Feb +3.1 March +7.3 April -2.5 May -.9 June +.8 July +6.5 August +3.9 Sep +2.2 Oct +1.0 Nov +5.8 Dec +4.0
  7. BuffaloWeather
  8. BuffaloWeather
    Yeah I don't really see much in the long range. A roller coaster pattern, averaging 2-3 degrees above normal.
  9. BuffaloWeather
  10. BuffaloWeather
    Between some semblance of herd immunity and 20-25 million vaccines per month each month, we should be able to fully open up by sometime in the April-July window. NFL season should feature 100% fan attendance by first week of September.
  11. BuffaloWeather
    This guy definitely failed geography and english.
  12. BuffaloWeather
    HPC gives us a glimmer
  13. BuffaloWeather
    Didn't realize that, but that map looks about right.
  14. BuffaloWeather
    If I was to go with a map it would be this one.
  15. BuffaloWeather
    The top analogs are interesting for this storm. Just goes to show you how unlucky we got with this one. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F060&rundt=2020121412&map=thbCOOP72 11/14/1997 is the top http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/Event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F060&rundt=2020121412&dt=1997111412
  16. BuffaloWeather
    Well we're literally 100 miles from a monster storm for the entire region. It worked out, just timing of waves and jet were off. It's a really good pattern for big synoptic storms and cold air after this system passes, although its very dry air with no LES. Basically just unlucky.
  17. BuffaloWeather
    Nice hole right over Buffalo, sounds about right.
  18. BuffaloWeather
    We would take this, finally gets the cold into our area. Cutters are many time pattern changers. That right there is our negative epo. Would be lots of les with that look.
  19. BuffaloWeather
    This is a good map
  20. BuffaloWeather
    GEM is east.
  21. BuffaloWeather
    Would like that to be a little colder, looks pretty warm still. Give me that pattern all January and this winter will be a win.
  22. BuffaloWeather
    + 10 for temps yesterday and +4 for the month. -11.8 for snowfall on the year.
  23. BuffaloWeather
    Looks like it went even further SE
  24. BuffaloWeather
    GFS has been extremely consistent, doubt it changes much.
  25. BuffaloWeather
    Looks good for @Ericjcrash
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