BuffaloWeather

Weaker high on GFS. Some pretty big changes coming.

KBUF .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The focus this time period will continue to be upon a storm system crossing the Southeast, and rapidly deepening off the southern New England coastline Wednesday through Thursday. The overall flow is progressive enough to keep this eastward track to the storm, with only its northwest edge brushing by our region. Light snow Wednesday will end through the night as this storm tracks towards New England. Surface high pressure behind this system will bring quiet weather to end the week with a sub freezing airmass Thursday becoming above freezing by Saturday.

The NAM also has a very strong NW bias, especially at 3-4 days. It becomes much better at 1-2 days out.

Some hope for those grasping. 84 hour NAM suggest a much further NW track. High is 2 MB stronger on GFS GFS at same time

We won't see one until at least January. The Pacific is just garbage.

Crushed

GEM looks identical to GFS. Going to be another big city crusher. Remarkable consistency for so far out.

And these synoptic snobs always talk about LES cutoffs. That picture shows 6" in one spot and 2 miles away 35"

That's a crazy disparity for a synoptic event. Are those higher totals where the elevation is higher?

Kind of similar to next weeks storm?

1996

Most of us here all average 100"+. We're the most spoiled snow weenies east of the rockies. Well, those that actually live in cities and large towns. You can go rural up in Vermont, NH, Michigan, and Maine and maybe get more but nothing really out there.

CRUSHED 10:1 ratios

NYC crushed

That's an 18% increase in 30 year intervals. A pretty large variance statistically speaking. It would be like KBUF going up to a 111.5" 30 year average. Obviously the variance is easier to do when the average is lower...

Yeah we won't know for sure until Monday night or so. Still large margin of error.

One event got you there in any given decade, the law of averages states that snowfall is going up in NYC, not down.

Central Park Snowfall by Decade 70s 21.2" 80s 19.7" 90s 24.7" 00s 31.5" 10s 33.2" Old 30 year average- 80s-00s- 25.3" New 30 year average-90s-10s- 29.8"

Yeah NYC and Boston 30 year AVG is up a little bit especially Bos. They only need 1-2 big storms and it gets them there.

Posting what the models say is bitter?

I disagree the 30 year averages in NYC and Boston have gone way up while everywhere else goes down. https://www.spadalawgroup.com/blog/the-past-15-years-have-been-the-snowiest-in-massachusetts-history.cfm

Just a half a day faster and that thing is merging with that wave coming from Huron and we all get slammed. All about timing the waves.

Model consensus?