BuffaloWeather

Kbufs forecast discussion is shorter then it is in the middle of July.

I didn't realize how warm Dec 15 was. To be the #2 spot by almost 5 degrees is just crazy.

Dec 2017 was incredible in the southtowns. I think we had like 5 LES events and 2 20"+ events. Finished with 152.4" that year. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2017-2018&event=B

Dec 15 was the warmest ever by almost 5 degrees, Dec 2018 was +3.2 Average temp 42.1 2015 Dec 2015 had 1" of snow Dec 2018 had 14.1" There is a very strong correlation between above average snowfall in Dec and above average snowfall years at KBUF. Mainly due to lake Erie freezing in late jan/early feb. We get about 10 weeks of lake effect potential each year, have to make full use of it. You can see the top 10 list of all weather data for KBUF here https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUF_top10

Yesterday was +16 at Buffalo. +3.5 for the month 56/38 High/Low

Numbers are going down in Erie county

The unfortunate truth. The worst month of the year, new Climo..

As someone that experiences the big dogs, small dogs, and everything in between. 1000% give me the big dogs. My biggest dog

Too soon

Latest GFS keeps any cold enough air for LES out of the area the entire run, Euro has 1 day or so of it.

There has been zero cold air anywhere near Erie/Ontario. Cleveland had a good lake enhanced event, but the only LES event was back on Nov 2nd/3rd. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2020-2021&event=A I believe we finished November at +5.8 (6th warmest of all time) and in December were around +3 for temps.

End of GFS brings down the entire polar vortex into the northeast

They posted this 10 mins ago.

Buf nws seems pretty confident in non event

SE Mass gets obliterated, would be an all timer

997 MB in NJ

Weaker high on GFS. Some pretty big changes coming.

KBUF .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The focus this time period will continue to be upon a storm system crossing the Southeast, and rapidly deepening off the southern New England coastline Wednesday through Thursday. The overall flow is progressive enough to keep this eastward track to the storm, with only its northwest edge brushing by our region. Light snow Wednesday will end through the night as this storm tracks towards New England. Surface high pressure behind this system will bring quiet weather to end the week with a sub freezing airmass Thursday becoming above freezing by Saturday.

The NAM also has a very strong NW bias, especially at 3-4 days. It becomes much better at 1-2 days out.

Some hope for those grasping. 84 hour NAM suggest a much further NW track. High is 2 MB stronger on GFS GFS at same time

We won't see one until at least January. The Pacific is just garbage.

Crushed

GEM looks identical to GFS. Going to be another big city crusher. Remarkable consistency for so far out.

And these synoptic snobs always talk about LES cutoffs. That picture shows 6" in one spot and 2 miles away 35"

That's a crazy disparity for a synoptic event. Are those higher totals where the elevation is higher?