BuffaloWeather

12Z GEFS

CMC has pretty big LES for Buffalo next week, GFS is a few days later but both now have it. A race against the lake freezing though.

Lake effect?

This article is fantastic https://www.today.com/health/how-many-strains-covid-19-exist-covid-19-variant-guide-t207173 Early lab research on Pfizer's vaccine indicates that it only slightly loses effectiveness against the South African variant, and previous research from the company on the U.K. variant found that antibodies in vaccine recipients' blood successfully fought off the virus in lab dishes. Moderna said earlier this week that a lab study showed "no significant impact on neutralizing titers," which correlate to protection provided by a vaccination, against the U.K. strain. The study did find "a six-fold reduction in neutralizing titers" against the South African variant, but the company said the reduced titer levels are still expected to be protective. Plummer said her Cedars-Sinai team does not anticipate CAL.20C will evade the vaccines, but they're actively investigating to be sure. She also believes most other strains and mutations will respond to the existing vaccines. "It will become very difficult for SARS-CoV-2 at the rate that it's mutating to evade the vaccine," she said, adding that mRNA vaccines were chosen to fight this pandemic because they're "designed to overcome" mutations. Asked why Moderna and Pfizer would need to develop boosters if this is the case, Plummer said the scientific justification would be "an abundance of precaution."

Looks like it cuts. This has pretty big potential

@Buffalo Bumble You said something about storm starting in Texas? This is the one of the year fellas.

Fascinating. That storm looks to be worst then the blizzard of 1993 for Syracuse. It's your guys version of the blizzard of 1977 in Buffalo.

Yeah after looking at snowfall total distribution that is very rare track for our area, just perfection.

That's a -NAO storm. Had to be a miller B to get Buf/Roc/Syr all involved with heavy snowfall and then primary took over and hit a block and retrograded to get cold air over lakes. Looks like my spot jackpotted off Erie for that one.

Never heard of that storm. Was that lake effect or synoptic? Had to be both? https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/29/remembering-the-blizzard-of-1966-and-its-eye-popping-eight-feet-of-snow/ Accumulations exceeding 30 inches extended west from Rochester to Buffalo. Both Syracuse and Rome, N.Y., received over 40 inches. Just northwest of Rome, Camden, N.Y., ended up with over 50 inches. Snowfall totals were even more extreme on the southeast side of Lake Ontario. Bob Sykes, a meteorology professor at the State University of New York at Oswego, reported a whopping 102.4 inches — 8 ½ feet of snow.

Happy anniversary whoever was in Syracuse in 1966

That model is so bad for synoptic. No way anyone is getting 3' in maryland.

Max totals over Toronto and Binghamton. Somehow it skips buf/roc/syr.

Over/under one synoptic system that gives buf/roc/syr 6" by end of year? I don't remember a year where we didn't get at least one. I'm going over, lots of cutters coming next few weeks, we will score on one of them.

Give me the cutters for the beautiful arctic W/SW flow.

GEFS

Vaccines are still the solution to all of this. This article is fantastic https://www.today.com/health/how-many-strains-covid-19-exist-covid-19-variant-guide-t207173 Early lab research on Pfizer's vaccine indicates that it only slightly loses effectiveness against the South African variant, and previous research from the company on the U.K. variant found that antibodies in vaccine recipients' blood successfully fought off the virus in lab dishes. Moderna said earlier this week that a lab study showed "no significant impact on neutralizing titers," which correlate to protection provided by a vaccination, against the U.K. strain. The study did find "a six-fold reduction in neutralizing titers" against the South African variant, but the company said the reduced titer levels are still expected to be protective. Plummer said her Cedars-Sinai team does not anticipate CAL.20C will evade the vaccines, but they're actively investigating to be sure. She also believes most other strains and mutations will respond to the existing vaccines. "It will become very difficult for SARS-CoV-2 at the rate that it's mutating to evade the vaccine," she said, adding that mRNA vaccines were chosen to fight this pandemic because they're "designed to overcome" mutations. Asked why Moderna and Pfizer would need to develop boosters if this is the case, Plummer said the scientific justification would be "an abundance of precaution."

There are likely dozens of new strains already out there from the original novel covid 19 virus. As we've had throughout history coronavirus have been around since the dawn of time. We likely will be living with covid for the rest of ours, we already have. Covid 19 was a unique and deadly strain, especially the one at the beginning of 2020. https://www.today.com/health/how-many-strains-covid-19-exist-covid-19-variant-guide-t207173

Cuomo Lifts Gathering Restrictions Across New York State https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cuomo-lifts-gathering-restrictions-across-170725691.html

If the winter trend is anything of note this storm will come 100-150 miles further NW than any model predicts. I mean the last 2-3 did that, it is possible this one does too. Seems the models have been really struggling with miller bs this winter for some reason.

The GFS LES train is back! We made it through this freeze without much ice. Next 5-7 days should prevent anymore ice.

Impossible with vaccines, we can agree to disagree. 3 waves just like the 1919 virus had. It mutates to a weaker strain like most viruses do. Just like the flu virus is more potent some years than others. We will see what the numbers are in a few months. I expect it to be quite low. At least hospitalizations, which is the only thing that really matters. We shouldn't be locking everyone down for a common cold. My manager currently has covid, and its not even that bad for her.

I mean I've already traveled a bunch in 2020. My traveling is in nature and in the woods hiking. We're on pace to have everyone vaccinated by fall at the latest. The new strains are not as deadly as the old ones. A covid cold doesn't cause hospitalizations to increase and that is what matters at this point. When I go to Alaska I'm hiking and exploring, not doing much else so my trip will be business as usual.

I just drove by a bar tonight and its fully packed and no mask required unless walking around. The entire parking lot was full. I don't know I think summer things will be completely back to normal aside from wearing a mask. This is the only chart that matters. I expect this to be pretty low by summer time. 3 waves just like in 1919. It fizzled out after the 3rd wave without vaccines back then. https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-currently-hospitalized