SomeguyfromTakomaPark

The reaper needs to visit soon 

Pattern chasing at 15-20 days --> always works out lolololol

Interesting radar over nyc area, simultaneously have east and west moving showers. 

It’s pretty breezy out already 

Norfolk sustained 40 gusting to 53 per the main tropical thread.  Pretty impressive given distance from center.  I wonder if we can get some legit tropical storm conditions up here tomorrow morning. 

29 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Honestly the “hurricane sunset” associated with tropical systems is probably what I’m most excited for with this storm.

Happening now

25 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

There's no other member on this board than @Scraff (well, @CAPE, too) when the power fails, and we NEED to empty out the beer fridge before it all gets warm...or, alternately, transfer it to the ice chests....   

That is a REAL pretty sat pic right there.

So, for those who were here back then...does Ophelia fall just short of being as impactful as Isabel in 2003 in terms of rain or wind? Or not even close? I've seen a few historical charts that showed Isabel dropped 1"-3" in the metro area, but the winds (I think, or at least remember) definitely had in impact in the area.

Isabel had 70-80 mph gusts across our region IIRC, I don’t see any models forecasting that around here.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY TONIGHT/...
Newly named Tropical Storm Ophelia is expected to move north
through tonight, making landfall along the North Carolina coast.
Ophelia will track into southeast Virginia, eventually losing
its tropical characteristics and becoming an extratropical
system as it moves across Virginia. This is the reason for the
combination of tropical (Tropical Storm Warnings) and non-
tropical (Wind Advisory) headlines in our area. Regardless of
its designation, this system is expected to bring widespread
rainfall and strong winds to the area starting tonight and
persisting through Sunday morning.

Light rain is expected to reach far southern Maryland this
evening, then spread north through the overnight. Most of the
area should be in light rain come sunrise Saturday. The
heaviest rain should hold off until late Saturday morning.
Temps tonight settle in the low to mid 50s, with upper 50s to
low 60s from D.C. down to southern Maryland.

Strong northeast winds are expected to develop along and east of
the Blue Ridge as the circulation of Ophelia pushes northward.
Wind gusts of 35-45 mph are expected, with stronger gusts up to
50-55mph along the immediate coast of the Western Shore and
Tidal Potomac. The combination of long duration wind gusts and a
saturated ground from rain will result in higher chances for
downed trees across the area.

A drenching rain is expected from the Blue Ridge eastward with
2 to 4 inches of rainfall, locally approaching 5 inches through
Sunday morning. Given upslope flow against the east slopes of
the Blue Ridge Mountains, some localized heavy maxima are not
out of the question. Forecast highs are in the upper 50s to mid
60s, locally down into the upper 40s to mid 50s across the
mountains.

29 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO is all in now.

 

Are those winds for 12z Monday?

Edit: I see it’s an accumulated max wind gust product now. 

17 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

is 18kt sustained even WA or HHW criteria?  

I'd guess wind advisory for this.   

Euro is a solid 1-3 inches of rain region wide NW to SE.  The windiest panel is 18 kt sustained winds in DC.

What are we thinking with winds? Gust in the 30s inland?

38 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Big differences between GFS and EURO at 6Z. (WB)

In winter the euro no snow solution would be correct 99 times out of 100. 

 - it’s really a shame that the main byproduct of our industrial civilization happens to make it warmer.  I wish that carbon dioxide had the opposite effect, global cooling.  Then people would pay attention! Imagine if summer was disappearing!  

Bowing segment headed towards Germantown looks like it means business. 

Storms are really crawling, the HRRR from this morning was off wrt timing. 

Hagerstown storm getting a bit of a hook. 

Nicest mid summer weather ever. 70s and breezy! No humidity.

Many roads blocked in Takoma park. 

Neighbors house partially crushed by a tree

lotta tree damage in my immediate neighborhood 

good storm!!! I think I captured a microburst here maybe. 

94/74 at dca, HI of 104. 

Absolutely roasting today.  Feels like a 100 at dca day.