SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Looking at CWG and their silly boom/bust/confidence map.  If ever there was a storm to stick a blanket 2-4 over everything and call it a day it is this one.  

Snow at 24 degrees is a treat.  It’s been a while since it’s actually been cold and snowy here. 

Just now, Deck Pic said:

yeah...3k is in line with the others....

 

Love being in the middle of the stripe.  Don’t have to sweat every 15 mile shift. 

Wow great run.  An old fashioned 2-4/3-6 deal will feel so good!! Followed by arctic air let’s gooooooo.  This will feel like winters growing up. 

Great run for immediate dc Baltimore area. 

Did the EPS show any interest in Friday?

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Literally a carbon copy of 6z..just slightly colder with sfc freezing line.

We take…lock it in.  Snow on the ground and cold temps. 

Snow squall!

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but it’s a 1010 low that starts to amplify off the outer banks…so umm…. I have a longer reply in the panic room.  It’s just one NAM run so no reason to over react I guess  

 

Majority of the precip is before we lose the thermals though. 

A lot more precip in the TN valley at 42, coastal more organized

Nam says light snow and temps in the 20s all day tomorrow, an inch by sunset. 

Wow good 18z suite so far, let’s juice this up and bring home a solid advisory event. 

56 minutes ago, stormy said:

I am happy that you finally admit that your message is speculation. You are good at what you say, but I am smart enough to see usually hidden speculation written all over it.

NOAA which is one of the most respected authorities in the world says that our climate has warmed around 2 degrees F since 1880. Does anyone truly believe that magically a snow drought has occurred during the past 7 or 8 years because of this 2 F warming in the last 140 years?

There are other factors at play that we don't know or understand.  I have no doubt.

Most of the warming has been recent and it has been accelerating.  And yes, I think I’ve seen enough 37 degree rainstorms and 65 degree January/February days to believe climate is changing and is affecting the amount of snow we get. 

If this week doesn’t produce I need to be reaped. 

96 hour GFS isn’t THAT far off from something for us.  I wouldn’t be surprised if this threat comes back. 

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

6z GEFS

Pretty close to the euro.  At least we have a good chance to break our 2 year snowless streak. 

11 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

58 days until sunsets after 7pm

But only like 25 days until the sun angle incinerates whatever snow falls on contact. 

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Would love for that “finger” to point right at us. Anytime that normally happens in other winters we get hit pretty good. Right now has it going too far north and west into WV.

It’s still a better run, higher heights.  Let’s reel this one back now. 

It's missing all the precip on the NW side.....  Not a good run.

1 minute ago, stormy said:

This morning it is basically GFS/ICON  vs. ECM/GEM .   What is your preference?

Did we lose the canadian?  It was wrapped up at 0z.

Euro/EPS not budging at all has me shook.....

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

0z GEFS almost no difference at 120

Actually looks a tad better at 132 than 18z.

Good gfs run, let’s lock in a moderate event with no precip issues.  

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Why did you skip 12z in there?  Come on stop it 

Even alone 0.25 on a QPF mean all snow at day is 5 is good.  And it’s better being on the NW side of the envelope than on the SE side of a snow potential with raging southerly mid level flow.  

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

So basically the entire sub forum is less than .1" qpf?

That’s a 6 hour QPF panel