SomeguyfromTakomaPark

1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

I get that. But , I was responding to a post about wildfire.

Ah yes - hopefully this should keep those down. 

19 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

If 200% of annual snowpack in sierras doesn't mitigate that this summer, we all are well and truly effed. 

I think part of the problem is the groundwater.  That doesn’t fill back up quickly. 

Another 10 day good pattern!  This will be the one guys lol.  Whatever at this point.  Unless we get super anamolous cold I don't even care about march snow.  34 degree white rain after this failed season isn't gonna get the job done.

51 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah we don't need the bleeding to stop. We need a massive shift south.

This one never had a chance.  Way too warm.  If everything broke just right this was a 34 degree “snowstorm” for dc.  

22 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

6z eps shut out the District more or less, aside from a couple members. Snow mean is pretty misleading and inflated for the city (fake 10 to 1 slop snow). Starting to hone in on the most likely scenario - slop SE of the fall line, good event for the NW burbs. March! 

This scenario makes sense when there is no cold air available.  Far NW burbs with elevation is the place to be for this one. 

5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yeah it’s not about the destination it’s the journey.  We know when the car runs out of gas.  I’ve seen the Euro flip to shit in one run.  Hundreds of times…thousands 

The problem with this one is absolutely no room for error with temps in the mid 30s.  We need exactly as shown by the euro for any accumulating snow.  If there was any actual cold ahead of the storm it would be less tenuous. 

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I got it being 50 degrees at DCA at 162 - at 168 the only place its snowing is right in the middle of the heaviest stuff in SE VA/ENC. Prob not worth parsing the details but I'm not seeing anything other than rain

FWIW Pivotal maps are rain too - it's light stuff

As with everything we have tracked this winter simply put it is going to be too warm, there really ain’t any cold to speak of in the entire conus in the lead up to this storm. 

Gonna be a decent beach day Thursday.   Euro says nearly 80 at the Delaware beaches.  

61 degrees this morning.  Absurd.

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Growing up just across the river from Philly, I'm a NY-style pizza snob. We had three or four mom-and-pop pizza places within a two-mile radius. All of them were fantastic, though each were just slightly different enough to be able to tell them apart.

Pizza around here generally sucks. There are a few places with worthy pies, but most are garbage, which is just one reason why my neighbor (from Long Island) and I have delved into the depths of making NY-style pizzas. Gotta say...we both do a fine job of it, from getting the proper gear for home ovens to making our own doughs and sauces to finding just the right kind of cheese to get the melt we want.

That said, Costco's Detroit-style pizza is really damn good, so I'd highly suggest it for anyone looking for a good frozen pizza.

There's good pizza in DC immediate metro.  The new detroit style place in silver spring, underground pizza, is really good.

4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

What the... I am just looking at the GFS! LOL - Not even close on any other parts of the set up at the time, but January 25, 2000 came to mind.. LOL! 

Man, this is not going to be fun if the south gets clobbered and we are missed. 

Are you really going to be mad that you missed some mashed potatoes in the middle of two heat waves that is instantly incinerated by the sun? 

If it's 40 in Albany, Boston, and Chicago, it ain't snowing here.  LOL.  Next.

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

mostly agree - this run verbatim is spitting out some snow in SC (and not just the mountains) - think there is a path to victory with perfection and a better placed vort pass. Just way too far south 

Yeah, goal posts ever so narrow.  There is no cold air anywhere to be found in the entire CONUS for this storm though.  540 thickness line in Montreal isn't usually good for us lol.  

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Looks kinda like a wash to me thru 84 but not sure it matters much anyway - we get the perfect solution or we don't.

Yeah, even if we get a "perfect" solution it probably won't be good enough for the metros.  Just too warm unfortunately.  

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, but I honestly don't see it as a threat.  Maybe something will change.  Maybe the Euro will show something.  I remain doubtful.

At this point, I'm just over it.  Might as well be warm/early spring if we're not getting snow.

Yessir, I’m done.  Bring on the 60s.  Of course I won’t say no to snow but it looks fairly hopeless so may as well be outside enjoy early spring with the kids! 

17 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said:

This chart suffers from the same lack of information as the other.

90% of the other chart (the black/dark line, which we assume is a X year average) is above the 0 line. 90% of this chart is below it.

What is the 0 line? Why is is different in both charts? Whether anomaly or average temp change...from what? A certain year? Who decided X year should be the base state?

If you'd like to educate yourself the graph was adapted from this paper:

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.0805721105

After this weekend the EPS doesn’t even get us down to freezing more than once through 360. Anomalous warmth as far as the eye can see.  

A sad little dusting.

This is our super bowl folks..........enjoy every flake.

It’s gonna be annoying if get some dumb 2.3 inches of slop in March that is instantly incinerated by sun.  I am officially rooting for a proper shutout of 0.0.  

I'd sign on the dotted line for the 6z GFS and then call it a winter.  Nice overrunning 3-6 with no temp issues, followed by a few cold days.

It's just too warm!  I barely even need anything other than a light jacket anymore.  My gloves and hat rarely make it out the door.  It's undeniable.

On 1/9/2023 at 8:51 AM, psuhoffman said:

Ok I’ve been leading the Deb brigade but this is just a flat lie.
 

Temp anomalies at the end of the EPS run

 

And it’s trending colder.  It may not be super cold but that’s a workable profile. And frankly the days of being really cold without some anomalous TPV displacement or direct arctic discharge (which isn’t even great for snow see Dec 23 ) are becoming rare.  Plus even the new 30 year means are skewed too cold since yes warming.  But we’re talking is it cold enough to snow. Compare that to now 

that profile now is unworkable. There is a huge difference between +10 and +3 temps in our source regions.  Look at the actual 850 temps day 15 on EPS

That’s not arctic cold no but it’s a very workable profile.  The issue is will it actually happen.  Guidance head faked a colder pattern for right now 15 days ago but that’s a different argument.  

 

That's weird, on TT it shows positive anamolies out to 360 for that same run, which is what I was looking at.

Wow just took a look at the EPS and GEFS.  Both are warm warm warm warm all the way through the ends of the runs.  Oh well.

16 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Seriously? I call bullshit. No way you are happy with 3 inches next year in an area that averages around 20.

I’d be happy to get a 3 inch storm where the snow actually sticks.  I moved to Takoma park in 2017 and we’ve only had two notable storms since then, each was probably in the 6-12 inch range and I didn’t even have to shovel my driveway either time.  Exposed to the sun and just melted off on its own.