SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Just now, Kevin Reilly said:

Hmm ratios would push this higher no?

That’s already kuchera so mayyyyybe but I’d guess not. 

6 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I’m greedy. How much more can we squeeze out of this?

6-12 area wide —> cold temps —> snowpack for a week. 

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

We lost .5"-1" on the median from 00z -> 12z. . Which is bad - means a lot more members show zilch.

This is actually a pretty good spot to be in IMO at day 5.  Heaviest precip to our southeast while some other models showing everything more NW.   Take a blend of everything and it's a snowstorm for us.

NAVGEM has a good track and storm......tossing the Euro!

1 minute ago, caviman2201 said:

EPS looks okay so far... 

Not terrible but def more of a coastal scraper look to it than a direct hit, at least it didn't totally evaporate!

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Feels like the TPV is just getting deeper and deeper and remains uncomfortably close. Would not be surprised if the EPS also reflects more suppression.

I think you can see that a bit on the EPS at 90...

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

quick someone tell me why the GFS is right and the CMC is wrong

 

because its the CMC, right?

 

The CMC actually does suck

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

If we actually get snow cover, we may get even colder than that

If we get 6-10 inches of cold smoke + single digits....that will cure everything.

GFS goes bonkers with the cold after the storm.  Single digits for lows and highs in the teens the next day.

123!!!! Lets go!!!!!!!!!

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Snow mean for 6z. Precipitation ongoing.

This looks really good and implies a very good track for our subforum.  

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So far, flatter than 12z, but TPV extension is a bit further east

Hopefully a delayed but not denied scenario like the euro 

And a low in the teens Wednesday morning, it will feel like actual winter!

Wow great run, daytime snow, temps in the 20s.  Beautiful.

GFS: light to moderate event followed by real cold.  Let's go!!!!!!!

So glad I had my basement fully waterproofed....can see moisture seeping through the walls.  This would've been a major flood without the french drain/sump pump system.

15 minutes ago, Fozz said:

This frame from the 12z Euro made me panic because I just know that in the old climate, this would've been snow for the cities in mid-January.

FACTS, another perfect track rain storm in mid January. 

Wow big wind in takoma park all of a sudden, easily gusting 40-50

Deluge in takoma park with gusty winds. Streets starting to pond and flood a bit. 

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

12z GFS still wants nothing to do with the 16th

Weak and disorganized I'd prefer at this range to another wound up cutter though.  Room for improvement.

GFS is properly cold after the Tuesday storm.  That would be great.  6 inches of snow and then a week below freezing temps.  

Also the timing is way different, storm sped up by like 24 hours.

16 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I guess but it really only has that south track going for it....as depicted...the 50/50 was mentioned.  also no CAD.  it's just a progressive wave that comes in on the heels of an arctic blast before it.  maybe it will improve.  not on the CMC op of course.  Thats also a terd wagon.  8 days out.  

Yeah as depicted no bueno.  But hopefully will change.

GEFS looks good to me at 186....below normal temps and precip to our south.

21 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

its total crap show as depicted.  warms  up just enought for rain then back to cold.  op run at range of course.  no tilt, no dig, no cold, no bueno

I like it, supports the general idea of a wave tracking to our south as the Euro showed.  Pretty decent consistency with the track this far out.

Euro is such a classic beautiful snowstorm for I-95 for next week, arctic air and no precip issues for our entire subforum basically.  Gosh we need that badly.