SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Friday night probably gonna need a wind chill advisory even for the metros.  Teens with 30mph gusting winds would put us below zero wind chills,

6z 3K Nam would be nice.  A couple of hours of snow before the arctic blast.   Would probably be enough for a white christmas.  I'd certainly be happy about it.

1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

This

Absolutely been steadfast showing light accumulation for us.  Hopefully we can get some other guidance on board. 

6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I have yet to see one of the short range models show snow behind the front.

RGEM and NAM want nothing to do with it unfortunately. 

I see no real reason to believe the GFS, as it is on its own and it is showing a scenario that almost never plays out for us.  But man, how sweet would that be?  1-3 inches of snow and blowing snow before an arctic shot.  I really hope this idea gains some traction.

34 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

What else is there to do?  We wait and watch.

Exactly, it’s not even Christmas lol.  Waiting til January for snow is standard operating procedure around here.  

GFS says 1-2 inches dc to Baltimore. That would be sweet. 

Looks like all the ensemble guidance agrees on new years warmth.  How are we looking past the warm up and start entering our prime snow climo?

Gosh that run is a thing of beauty, 971 at Ocean City would probably be a legit blizzard.

Nuked at 177 - beautiful. 

26 minutes ago, jon_snow said:

So what's the gut feel at this point? Are we getting a white Christmas? 

Yes.  I think we cash in next weekend.  Euro will come back to it methinks.

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A bit of an increased indication of low pressure to the NW on the 6z GEFS. 

Kinda like the Euro, the euro isn’t really a full blown cutter but just a broad area of low pressure with a secondary max of low pressure to our NW.  Euro is not far off from a snowstorm for us still.

This is a very very very good run. 

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Can't tell yet whether that's good or bad lol

It sparks cyclogenesis along the coast earlier and snows for a long time over us. We enthusiastically take!

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Snow climo down here is not as robust as Philly (grew up in Roxborough/Manayunk). If we manage a 4" - 8" storm out of this for Christmas proper, it will exceed norms for IAD, BWI, DCA. That's a win in my book.

Any measureable snow followed by arctic air right before christmas is a massive win.  Of course we all wanted a fully capture low stalled off Ocean City dumping on us a la 2016 but I'll take what we can get.

Euro is a missed connection with the phase but it still snows before the arctic front so I'll take it.

Just now, ryanconway63 said:

anybody able to get the Canadian out past 120 hours?   was wondering what it showed?

Swing and a miss, fish storm.

This is the Unicorn - all snow event followed by arctic air for Christmas.  Lock it up!  

195 incoming!!!!

Wow I didn’t realize TT now has all the good euro data! Such a friendlier site for mobile usage than pivotal. 

GFS still has the hellacious arctic front, temps dropping to the teens in the afternoon with some fresh light snow on the ground next Friday.  Would be cool if it happened. 

Just starting to tune in, from what I can gather we had some nice LR looks like a week or two ago?  Those are now totally gone?

I don’t think I’ve ever seen an nhc cone include Greenland!!!

4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Is it really that terribly hot?

Definitely the worst feeling day of the summer here.  We’ve had some mid 90s but not with dews in the mid 70s.

Sweltering today, first legit big heat day.  Mid/upper 90s with mid 70s dews.