SomeguyfromTakomaPark

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS…front end better, coastal worse.

Wow, basically skunks everyone except for coastal New England.  Pretty big model war NAM/Euro vs GFS/icon/rgem. 

Right on the edge of the coastal as depicted by the 12z nam for the metros.  Good run, I’m happy to see it’s still dangling the coastal for us. 

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Geesh, just saw the NAM (lol).  That ridge placement out west is basically perfect through Idaho.

Everything about to go boom at 84….gosh please let the nam be right. 

4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Close, but not really THAT close still. Some adjustments will get us closer but, at least for us around 95, sorry OCMD, but we want that rain over top of you, and it's still pretty far off the coast.

Agree, but for 100 hours out it's a doable shift to get us into low end warning snow.  For us to really get clocked time is running out...

Just now, ryanconway63 said:

canadian crushes the coast.....wow

Gosh at 100 hours we are so close to the goods on the CMC....need it to just tuck another 50-100 and we'd be money. 

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Encouraging to see that whether GFS does a good phase that gets us a bit into the coastal game or not, it still provides a very nice event Friday evening.  Friday HH snowfall looking more and more likely.  

And then two very wintry days in the 20s.....

Solid advisory event for most of the sub....we take. 

Better phasing at 72....please be enough for us!

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks fine to me

Improved from its previous run, gets us something at the end, but I doubt it would get us anything from the coastal....just guessing of course.

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

@stormtracker the 6z NAM was worse by quite a bit honestly, so it could be worse. 

12z ends with moderate snow for pretty much our whole sub forum. 

5 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Euro is much further east with the NS SW that dives in through montana than every other piece of guidance.  That's only  at HR 36 or so.  Probably helps prevent it from leaving to much behind in the South West.

At hour 66 the NAM looks to be strongly in the camp of leaving energy in the SW....definitely not Euro like.  

7 minutes ago, jayyy said:

True. However, if we were bullseyed 4+ days out, we’d all be worried about the inevitable shift west. We’ve certainly been in worse positions 4 days out. 

Yeah, but we're on the far western edge of an outlier piece of guidance.  Not saying it won't snow but I'm keeping expectations in check. 

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

06z GEFS at 90 h5 looks much better on TT IMO compared to 00z at 96

24 hour precip is a huge jump west also at 102.

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

 

I didn't think so. Just that a few others are kinda bearish...I mean I understand why given our hhistory...yet this just doesn't feel like a pure Miller b to my novice eyes...I mean the southern component and the uncertainty of it's involvement is a wildcard, imo. 

I guess what I'm asking is what scenario would have to happen in order for us to get warning-level snow out of this. But perhaps it's too early to tell

I think the GFS/CMC show how we can do well.  The storm is already strong by our latitude.  We would benefit from it being a tad closer to the coast but both give us a good snowstorm. 

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So I'm guessing the better minds don't see this trending any snowier than a few inches?

I'm not a better mind but we watched something trend from way offshore to a harrisburg hauler 2 weeks ago at this range.  Nothing locked in at all yet imo.  

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Once I conceded and accepted that ANY measurable snowfall from events like this are pure gifts, I learned to live this way after boxing day 2010... 

Miller B buddhism.....wise words.   

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

The eps was not much of a change. On low positions one could argue worse.

The EPS shows exactly why we don't love miller B's.  I hope if a Euro like solution happens we can at least sneak into a light/moderate event. 

1 minute ago, yoda said:

12z CMC looks tasty on the precip type map

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Wow!  That's a heck of a loop!

Just now, Ravens94 said:

I would assume there is probably still some spread in the ensembles but there will likely be 2 camps. Still love the direction we are headed. 

We need it bomb out like 200 miles south and then methinks it would be more tucked.  But even this scenario is a snowstorm for us so I'm not mad. 

Just now, snowmagnet said:

That's not at all pretty for us. 

Well for me 4 inches of snow with no mixing issues is great.....don't care what happens to our northeast. 

7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I was never ready to bail. I have said, and will definitely pull the post back up if it happens lol, that we would know today. All I’ve said was that what was being advertised would not work here. 
 

I don’t even know if it’s possible, but somehow this thing still has to dig/phase about 200 miles west of where it is. I was encouraged by the gefs at 0z with some inland lows. Would love to have seen how it did it.

Yeah, good trends but I’m keeping expectations in check for now.  We all know the pitfalls of this kinda setup for everyone SW of Philly. Not saying we can’t get a storm of course.  

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

Oman 14 and Glenfiddich 15. You?

Edibles and coffee.

ICON gives us snow. We take. 

Out west looks way different at 108….

Changes afoot on the icon, northern stream s/w has dug further SW at 105.

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps 120

144

Isn’t that just about the ideal position of the ridge over the Rockies for us?