SomeguyfromTakomaPark

1 minute ago, frd said:

Solid, just looking at that stripe it must be a 6z GFS type evolution right?

DC destroyed at hour 150…SN+++

Oh good god yes GFS! Climbing the coast baby!!!!

Man that winter hurricane is gonna be a hell of a storm for the Canadians up in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. 

ICON is a nice hit, light/moderate daytime event with temps dropping as the snow falls.  Sign me up. 

Take a look at the temps on the CMC, dropping into the teens during the day as the storm gets going.

Just now, nj2va said:

Looking at H5 on CMC, this weekend deal should be good for us.

Yeah it's a hit.  Moderate event.

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Just went out for a walk, pretty interesting snow depth difference from grass to pavement. Almost 1/3 when compared...wonder why the cold smoke fluffy dendrites falling at 3am didn't accumulate all that great on the pavement?

At least here in Takoma Park it was in the low 40s yesterday and I don’t think it dropped to freezing until around when the snow started.  

3 minutes ago, dukeblue219 said:

I don't know how much it's compacted, but woke up to 2.25" of fresh snow on the deck this morning. Not bad. Sidewalks and streets are mixed but not covered - looks like a lot of snow was wasted on the front end there. (near downtown Silver Spring) 

My street was clean when I woke up but has been blown over with snow now from the trees.  

Good amount of blowing snow right now.  Legit deep winter feel. 

7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Took this just a moment ago….

Waiting for my final total so that I can add 0.1” to whatever @clskinsfan reports.

Measuring the snow angle.  That’s a new one lol. 

2 minutes ago, snowfan said:

There’s too much reliance on the HRRR close in for events. It bounces around with adjustments every run and to be frank, it kinda sucked near the metro areas last night. Many of us that got 3-4” were getting 1-2 based on the HRRR. 

NAMS nailed it for dc it appears. 

Nice event, looks beautiful out.  Outta the gate quick this winter! 

28 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

kind of shocked mcps hasnt called it.  Assuming roads are generally fine?

Looking like a solid 2-3 in Takoma park and yeah the roads just look wet here. 

Just now, Ji said:

3 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

3k NAM shows essentially 3 hours of fairly heavy snow for DC metro (between 2 and 5 am) and then it’s over.  Totals about 2-3”. 
 

So basically the same thing its showed the past 8 runs

3 hours of heavy snow will be sweet.  Too bad I’ll be asleep for it. 

New 3k nam looks nice for dc and Baltimore.  ~0.3 qpf for each 

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

Solid, good to see it didn’t dry up. 

Just now, IUsedToHateCold said:

Weird to have such model divergence at this point. Either the GFS is trailblazing as the new king or it’s reprised it’s role as the Goofus. Either way it is on an island. We will know by tomorrow. 

Is there much divergence though aside from the GFS?  Almost every piece of guidance gives DC ~0.2 QPF.

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

12z EURO still has an I-95 screw zone but it blends in pretty well, honestly.

Not even much of a screw zone, just a 2-3 inch snowfall for pretty much the entire subforum. 

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

HDRPS pretty decent.

Pretty good consensus among Euro, RGEM, NAMs, HRDRPS for ~0.2 QPF in DC.  

Just now, Fozz said:

I've decided to go to Thomas, WV.

It is near Davis and it should be a great spot for this storm.

Thomas is great.  The purple fiddle is a cool spot!

Pretty similar result on the NAM twins for dc metro but they cut back a bit SE of town.

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO

Another good run, steady as she goes. Pretty good consensus for a uniform 1-4 area wide.  Pretty easy forecast all things considered. 

3 minutes ago, H2O said:

Where do you all find this stuff?  Its like you go deep into the bullpen to find a closer that none of us have ever heard of.  This guy got a good ERA?

no idea how to interpret what’s on the screen but sounds good lol 

3 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

There was an event a couple days after Christmas in 1990 that was a big time overachiever. We were in a different pattern then but the system may have been similar to what is coming tomorrow night. Forecast was for 1-3/2-4 but what happened instead was double and triple that amount.  Cold Temps and good ratios along with banding produced very heavy snowfall rates over a 4-6 hour period. Maybe this does the same. 

Looks like a good sounding to maximize ratios!