SomeguyfromTakomaPark

3 minutes ago, H2O said:

Where do you all find this stuff?  Its like you go deep into the bullpen to find a closer that none of us have ever heard of.  This guy got a good ERA?

no idea how to interpret what’s on the screen but sounds good lol 

3 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

There was an event a couple days after Christmas in 1990 that was a big time overachiever. We were in a different pattern then but the system may have been similar to what is coming tomorrow night. Forecast was for 1-3/2-4 but what happened instead was double and triple that amount.  Cold Temps and good ratios along with banding produced very heavy snowfall rates over a 4-6 hour period. Maybe this does the same. 

Looks like a good sounding to maximize ratios!

2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

With decent ratios, I'm OK with this.

And a high of 30 at DCA for the day with temps falling off to the low 20s by 00z.  Nice wintry day upcoming. 

1 minute ago, Amped said:

Philly to Boston could easily get a 6+ event from this. We may be struggling to get 2.

The king (GFS) begs to differ.  DC gets more than Boston and nyc this run. 

15 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

15 Pee-wee models discussed in the last 2 pages…God help us

Wow, one real storm and people wanna skip the JV models.  Are you kidding me? This hobby in the mid Atlantic DEMANDS us to agonize over half inch shifts on pee wee models.  BTW icon is a perfect little commute wrecker/school closing kinda storm.  6 hours of snow right around rush hour with good temps leading in. 

7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This would be a great post we’re it not for the fact that the last map was 10:1

Also this event might be a good chance for 10:1 or slightly better to actually verify. 

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

What, you had doubts that it would trend towards the new King? 

That’s two euro runs in a row trending wetter, let’s see if we can trend this into a 4-6 event for everyone. 

06z euro is improved, more precip for everyone.  Solid 2-4 event. 

19 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO,   Where the snow hole goes no one knows…

Yeah this is fine. Area wide 1-3 on existing snow.  Pack freshener.

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, that. map was pretty deceptive.  I mean, today set expectations I guess.  We still have a shot at more, but settle in for a 1 to 3" type deal.  Freshen up the snowpack

We’re in goalpost range in my opinion. Low end goalpost is a 1-2 event like the euro, high end is a 3-6 like the GFS.  I’d be surprised to see it trend away from us completely, but then again, our last storm basically materialized at 36 hour lead time so who knows. 

Just now, mattie g said:

I'll take the combination of pretty much all other guidance v. the Euro, though I do realize there are relatively minor differences in a fast flow that can cause relatively big discrepancies among them.

Yeah, it's not a huge difference....the low track is pretty similar on everything.  Just blend it all and its a light event in cold temps for us. 

Still a decent track for the low pressure for our region.  I'll roll the dice with that track. 

Also this is snow falling at night mostly with mid 20s, gonna be a high impact event for commutes on Friday am if it happens as shown on the GFS.  STAY OFF 95 in Virginia lolololol.

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

Still a tasty stripe and confidence increasing for at least an accumulating snow event. Sign me up. 

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

18z Euro looks good for a region-wide moderate event.  Generally 4-6”+ DC/north.  2-4” EZF/SE MD.  7-9” mountains.

LFG baby!!!!! 

Gosh I’m digging today.  Temp never got above 28, low January sun angle and a nice breeze have made for minimal melt and a nice winter feel. 

Euro has highs in the 20s Friday and Saturday.  Snow on the ground + actual cold. 

Calling it about 6-8 here in Takoma park, too lazy to measure.  Great event and still snowing. 

Great event to get the monkey off our backs…..been a while! Still solid SN and over 6 inches in Takoma park. 

This band over Takoma park is doing work. SN+ with nice dendrites. 

Moderate to almost heavy snow at times.  Breezy with some blowing snow.  Looks like 1-2 inches.  Beautiful.

12z hrrr little slower with pulling the storm away. Snow just exiting stage right from dc at 19z.

Visibility dropping, roads caving, 31.  Small flakes for now. 

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Once again for anyone who cares the latest HRRR is far more snowy and north than its old runs.

Still likes the idea of absolute crush job from 9-11.  Gonna be fun!!!!!

Everything filling in now up to Baltimore too.  Good stuff incoming.