It would also be a lot less fun if we didn’t go nuts over run like this. But yeah we know what the true odds are. I will say though that I think the chance for accumulating snow in dc metro is decent.
ICON ensembles look good, seems like they support keeping us on the good side of the boundary based on the available maps on Pivotal. Looks like about 1 inch QPF of frozen.
The 0z euro gave us snow but then changed us over to rain for the stronger of the waves instead of the 12z/18z runs yesterday that kept us right on the good side of the boundary for all of it.
Everything still on the table IMO
We got very burned in DC riding the AI on the last event which had like a zillion runs in a row showing a snowstorm for us. The warmer/north models slapped it around.